The Great Depression changed the way a whole generation thought about work, saving money, investing and planning for the future.
My grandparents, for example, used to store far more canned goods than they ever could need in a pantry, a behaviour typical of Depression-era children like them. I remember discovering a rusty tin of corn in that room many years ago, a relic of attitudes developed at a time when resources were scarce and the future seemed extremely uncertain. My grandfather still saves useless items - old broken toasters, brittle nails removed long ago from boards and shingles, yellowed newspapers and discarded pots and pans - and resists any attempt to clean up.
The Great Recession hasn't been quite so bad as the Great Depression - not yet, at least. Back in 1929, the US economy started shrinking and didn't return to its pre-Depression level until 1939, ending the longest and deepest period of economic turmoil in modern history. This time, global GDP started to shrink in the middle of 2008, and stayed on a downward trajectory into last year before rebounding.
Even if it doesn't turn out to be all that nasty, though, this recession's job losses and long duration are probably going to change the way people think about their finances and their futures. Maybe it won't be on the scale of the Great Depression, but people's notions about money and how they interact with the economy are probably in for at least a mild rethinking, especially among segments of the population that have never experienced an economic blow-up of this magnitude. And that's just about everyone.
The Great Recession is almost sure to change how people all over the world look at borrowing, if it hasn't already. As most of us know from experience, getting credit before the crisis was about as easy as signing up for a magazine subscription.
Even people with distinctly chequered credit histories were able to get credit cards, mortgages, home equity loans and all sorts of other advances and overdrafts. It was easy - too easy, it turned out.
As regulators across the globe put curbs on some of the most irresponsible forms of lending that preceded the financial crisis, banks themselves are being much more careful about who they will give a loan to. People and companies are still interested in borrowing, but banks are shutting many of them out.
According to the European Central Bank's July bank lending survey, banks in the euro area reported tighter credit standards in the second quarter of the year. The report cited "renewed constraints in banks' access to funding and liquidity management" as the reasons for constraint on lending. Demand for loans, meanwhile, "continues to recover".
Those higher lending standards are probably here to stay. And that means our attitudes towards borrowing are likely to change. Instead of deciding whether it makes sense to borrow money, we'll increasingly be wondering whether the banks will approve our loan applications. When they do - especially on mortgages and other large loans - it will be an occasion worth celebrating.
Another change likely to be brought about by the Great Recession is a shift in thinking about retirement. For many years now, many of us have planned for our twilight years with an unwarranted dose of certainty, even as lifespans became longer and healthcare costs went up. We were told stocks were a pretty safe bet, and that if we saved enough money and budgeted properly we'd be able to spend the last couple of decades of our lives on a permanent vacation.
In the new economy emerging from the recession, retirement dreams will be harder to reach. Tougher times will probably inspire more people to save, but lower spending, coupled with less bank credit floating around, will mean businesses can't expand as fast as before. And that ought to translate into less stellar profits for businesses that people invest in and depend on for retirement.
At the same time, retirement is likely to cost more money in future because of the advances in medicine that are keeping us alive longer. That should mean we're able to work well past today's official retirement ages. If retirement is longer because we live longer, it will also naturally cost more.
We'll probably also see housing differently, and more logically after the recession: not really as an investment, but as merely a place to live. We'll certainly see housing bubbles such as the one currently inflating in China, but buyers and regulators will approach property with scepticism for a long time because of the tremors lax lending standards and fast price increases in the US ultimately sent through the global financial system.
The full social effects of the Great Recession are hard to gauge at this stage. That will take time. As governments decide how to put the humpty-dumpty of our global financial system back together again, however, it's becoming clearer that our recent economic troubles will have a long-lasting impact on our attitudes toward money; changes that are likely to have as many repercussions as the regulatory reforms that result from the crisis.
@Email:afitch@thenational.ae
The Penguin
Starring: Colin Farrell, Cristin Milioti, Rhenzy Feliz
Creator: Lauren LeFranc
Rating: 4/5
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Company profile
Name: Thndr
Started: October 2020
Founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: pre-seed of $800,000
Funding stage: series A; $20 million
Investors: Tiger Global, Beco Capital, Prosus Ventures, Y Combinator, Global Ventures, Abdul Latif Jameel, Endure Capital, 4DX Ventures, Plus VC, Rabacap and MSA Capital
Keane on …
Liverpool’s Uefa Champions League bid: “They’re great. With the attacking force they have, for me, they’re certainly one of the favourites. You look at the teams left in it - they’re capable of scoring against anybody at any given time. Defensively they’ve been good, so I don’t see any reason why they couldn’t go on and win it.”
Mohamed Salah’s debut campaign at Anfield: “Unbelievable. He’s been phenomenal. You can name the front three, but for him on a personal level, he’s been unreal. He’s been great to watch and hopefully he can continue now until the end of the season - which I’m sure he will, because he’s been in fine form. He’s been incredible this season.”
Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s instant impact at former club LA Galaxy: “Brilliant. It’s been a great start for him and for the club. They were crying out for another big name there. They were lacking that, for the prestige of LA Galaxy. And now they have one of the finest stars. I hope they can go win something this year.”
Cinco in numbers
Dh3.7 million
The estimated cost of Victoria Swarovski’s gem-encrusted Michael Cinco wedding gown
46
The number, in kilograms, that Swarovski’s wedding gown weighed.
1,000
The hours it took to create Cinco’s vermillion petal gown, as seen in his atelier [note, is the one he’s playing with in the corner of a room]
50
How many looks Cinco has created in a new collection to celebrate Ballet Philippines’ 50th birthday
3,000
The hours needed to create the butterfly gown worn by Aishwarya Rai to the 2018 Cannes Film Festival.
1.1 million
The number of followers that Michael Cinco’s Instagram account has garnered.
Company%20Profile
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Stage 5 results
1 Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 3:48:53
2 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana Pro Team -
3 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott -
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:00:04
5 Ilnur Zakarin (RUS) CCC Team 0:00:07
General Classification:
1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 20:35:04
2 Tadej Pogacar (SlO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:01
3 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana Pro Team 0:01:33
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:01:48
5 Rafał Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe 0:02:11
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
RESULT
Al Hilal 4 Persepolis 0
Khribin (31', 54', 89'), Al Shahrani 40'
Red card: Otayf (Al Hilal, 49')
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
The biog
Favourite colour: Brown
Favourite Movie: Resident Evil
Hobbies: Painting, Cooking, Imitating Voices
Favourite food: Pizza
Trivia: Was the voice of three characters in the Emirati animation, Shaabiyat Al Cartoon
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The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.
The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.
“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.
“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”
Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.
Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.
“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.
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A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
The squad traveling to Brazil:
Faisal Al Ketbi, Ibrahim Al Hosani, Khalfan Humaid Balhol, Khalifa Saeed Al Suwaidi, Mubarak Basharhil, Obaid Salem Al Nuaimi, Saeed Juma Al Mazrouei, Saoud Abdulla Al Hammadi, Taleb Al Kirbi, Yahia Mansour Al Hammadi, Zayed Al Kaabi, Zayed Saif Al Mansoori, Saaid Haj Hamdou, Hamad Saeed Al Nuaimi. Coaches Roberto Lima and Alex Paz.
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
A little about CVRL
Founded in 1985 by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, the Central Veterinary Research Laboratory (CVRL) is a government diagnostic centre that provides testing and research facilities to the UAE and neighbouring countries.
One of its main goals is to provide permanent treatment solutions for veterinary related diseases.
The taxidermy centre was established 12 years ago and is headed by Dr Ulrich Wernery.
'Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore'
Rating: 3/5
Directed by: David Yates
Starring: Mads Mikkelson, Eddie Redmayne, Ezra Miller, Jude Law
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Paris Can Wait
Dir: Eleanor Coppola
Starring: Alec Baldwin, Diane Lane, Arnaud Viard
Two stars
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If you go
Flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh with a stop in Yangon from Dh3,075, and Etihad flies from Abu Dhabi to Phnom Penh with its partner Bangkok Airlines from Dh2,763. These trips take about nine hours each and both include taxes. From there, a road transfer takes at least four hours; airlines including KC Airlines (www.kcairlines.com) offer quick connecting flights from Phnom Penh to Sihanoukville from about $100 (Dh367) return including taxes. Air Asia, Malindo Air and Malaysian Airlines fly direct from Kuala Lumpur to Sihanoukville from $54 each way. Next year, direct flights are due to launch between Bangkok and Sihanoukville, which will cut the journey time by a third.
The stay
Rooms at Alila Villas Koh Russey (www.alilahotels.com/ kohrussey) cost from $385 per night including taxes.
The Buckingham Murders
Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu
Director: Hansal Mehta
Rating: 4 / 5
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Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Day 3, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Just three balls remained in an exhausting day for Sri Lanka’s bowlers when they were afforded some belated cheer. Nuwan Pradeep, unrewarded in 15 overs to that point, let slip a seemingly innocuous delivery down the legside. Babar Azam feathered it behind, and Niroshan Dickwella dived to make a fine catch.
Stat of the day - 2.56 Shan Masood and Sami Aslam are the 16th opening partnership Pakistan have had in Tests in the past five years. That turnover at the top of the order – a new pair every 2.56 Test matches on average – is by far the fastest rate among the leading Test sides. Masood and Aslam put on 114 in their first alliance in Abu Dhabi.
The verdict Even by the normal standards of Test cricket in the UAE, this has been slow going. Pakistan’s run-rate of 2.38 per over is the lowest they have managed in a Test match in this country. With just 14 wickets having fallen in three days so far, it is difficult to see 26 dropping to bring about a result over the next two.
Name: Peter Dicce
Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics
Favourite sport: soccer
Favourite team: Bayern Munich
Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer
Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates
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