At the Dubai Airshow, which starts today, airlines will seek to order more jets to modernise their fleet, meet strong travel demand and secure production slots, but the volume of deals is set to be more moderate than in previous years.
Analysts say the size and number of commercial jet orders this year are unlikely to hit the record highs of previous air shows as manufacturers grapple with supply chain bottlenecks, certification delays and decade-long backlogs.
Dubai's high-profile aerospace pageant is a pivotal event for Middle East airlines, not always for flashy mega-orders but also strategic, smaller purchases, industry experts said.
"Right now airlines are caught between record travel demand and record delivery delays," Richard Maslen, head of analysis at Capa Centre for Aviation, told The National.
"I would expect a mix of pragmatism and urgency: carriers may order smartly, not wildly, but they’ll fight to secure production slots that stretch well into the 2030s."
The supply chain dynamics will remain "the invisible hand" guiding the size and timing of each deal, he added.
The air show presents a "mixed picture", John Strickland, a UK-based aviation analyst and director of JLS Consulting, said.
On one hand, airlines are facing capacity constraints due to jet delivery delays and aircraft grounded because of engine issues, he said. On the other, several airlines have already placed large orders at the last show and these are yet to be delivered, compounded by a seven-year wait for Boeing's long-delayed 777-9 wide-body.
"I expect a broadly positive outlook at the air show, though we may not see new large-scale orders," Mr Strickland said.
Airlines are more likely to confirm options for aircraft from previous orders, rather than make massive purchases at the air show, John Grant, senior analyst at OAG, said. "I wouldn't expect it be historic, since a lot of orders are already in place."
Few big orders are expected at the show unless Emirates makes a surprise move by cancelling some of its 777-9s and making an A350-1000 replacement order, Ernest Arvai, aviation analyst at AirInsight, said. "While Emirates needs the 777-9 to replace A380s, it cannot wait forever."
'Prime moment' for lessors
Airlines will use the air show as an opportunity to meet plane manufacturers, engine makers and aircraft seat suppliers to vent their frustrations and seek solutions for delays that have hamstrung their growth plans.
Some carriers may opt for a "quiet reshuffling" of their order books, rather than outright cancellations, Mr Maslen said. "Flexibility is the new currency."
Others will look to the secondary market to navigate supply chain challenges.
"Many carriers are leaning harder on lessors to bridge capacity," Mr Maslen said. "That makes this air show a prime moment for leasing companies – they're now the industry's short term oxygen supply."
The biennial aerospace expo is typically a bell-weather for the aviation industry and in previous editions has produced a bonanza of commercial plane deals for Airbus and Boeing with billions of dollars in orders. The event will take place at DWC, Dubai's second airport, from November 17 to 21.
The Dubai Airshow in 2023 recorded more than $101 billion in deals announced through the week.
Dubai-based Emirates is expected to make "a few announcements" at the air show, airline president Tim Clark told The National earlier this month.
At the Dubai Airshow in 2023, the airline purchased an additional 15 Airbus A350-900 aircraft. However, it fell short of orders for the A350-1000 because of its long-standing criticism of the durability of its Rolls-Royce engines in the hot and harsh climate of the Gulf. The UK-based company is working to improve the performance and durability of the engine as part of a £1 billion ($1.3 billion) investment.
Whether an Emirates order for the A350-1000 will transpire at this air show depends significantly on whether Rolls-Royce meets the airline's requirements, Mr Strickland said.
Asked if Airbus is still in talks with Emirates for the A350-1000 variant, Gabriel Semelas, Airbus' president of Middle East and Africa, said: "Emirates is already operating 13 of the A350-900, clearly the [A350]-1000 is always in their mind."
"We are always talking about the A350 with Emirates and the evolution of the A350 and what they need to have. So this is an continuing discussion with Emirates and many other customers in the region," he told reporters at a press briefing on Friday.
Mr Clark is also trying to convince Airbus and Boeing to build larger versions of the A350-1000 and 777X as it seeks a successor for the A380. The latter programme has ceased production and Emirates will fly its superjumbo until the end of the next decade.
Asked if Airbus has interest or capability for a stretch version of the A350-1000, Mr Semelas said: "There's no immediate plans to do it, not yet. We are always considering product evolutions of the A350 and all other aircraft as well. So clearly that growth has to be in our mind in the future, not specifically with Emirates, but with all the customers worldwide."
Airbus would need to see interest from other airline customers in order to justify the business case for a stretch version.
"Clearly you need to have the volume, so we need to get all the customers engaged," he said. "There's no strong, specific interest from airline A or B. It's a product that the market will request and we will need the volumes to make the business case happen."
Boeing's comeback
Airbus and Boeing will vie to announce the highest number of commercial jet deals at the Dubai Airshow.
In the first 10 months of this year, Boeing booked 836 gross orders, taking the lead ahead of Airbus' 722 gross orders during the January to October period.
Boeing is marking its presence at the Dubai Airshow with anticipated deals, a 777-9 flying display, product briefings and panel discussions. This comes after the US plane-maker's marked absence from the Paris Airshow in June in the aftermath of an Air India 787 fatal plane crash.
"Dubai could very well be Boeing's 'back on stage' moment'," Mr Maslen said. "After Paris, the company needs to show confidence as much as competence."
The air show will signal the return of Boeing "in a big way" following years of a low profile as it recovers from a series of crises since the 737 Max fatal crashes, Scott Hamilton, consultant at Leeham Company, said.
Boeing has already scored tens of billions of dollars in orders during US President Donald Trump's tour of Gulf countries in May.
"Boeing doesn't need the air show to show its comeback – they're already having an awesome year," Addison Schonland, partner at US-based AirInsight, said.
However the further postponement of the 777X debut to 2027 is a "huge black eye" at the event, he added. "A low profile is probably the best play for them."
Airbus and Boeing are seeing their decades-old duopoly tested by China's manufacturing ambitions. The C919 from plane-maker Comac will make its Middle East debut at the air show amid Beijing's closer economic ties with the Gulf.
The air show is the first major industry gathering after a fragile ceasefire ended Gaza's two-year war with Israel.
"A stable region is the best possible tailwind for Middle East aviation. The ceasefire is likely to unleash a rebound in tourism, pilgrimage travel and cross-border business," Mr Maslen said. "After two years of turbulence, this could mark the start of a broader regional upswing."
Sustainability will be another major theme at this year's air show as the industry targets reaching net-zero by 2050.
Air taxis will be a star attraction at this year's show with flight demonstrations and operational briefings. Joby and Archer are aiming to start UAE services in 2026.
