Bank chiefs have warned that a new European cap on bonuses could trigger the flight of top earners to New York or Hong Kong.
The European parliament this week agreed to limit bankers' bonuses to no more than the amount they receive as salaries, alongside increased capital requirements.
The rules will be subject to a vote by European national parliaments, but could come into effect as soon as next year.
Bonuses will be capped at the same levels as salary, though they can be doubled through a shareholder vote.
The measure is intended to "make sure that pay practices do not lead to excessive risk-taking", the European Parliament said in a statement.
However, the move could damage European banks' ability to retain the best staff, said Séverin Cabbanes, the deputy chief executive of Société Générale. "There are real risks that the best talent will move out of Europe," he said.
Bank pay in Europe will come under further scrutiny this weekend when Switzerland votes on a referendum that would give shareholders a binding vote on executive pay.
Bankers' multimillion-dollar salaries have provoked huge controversy in the wake of the global financial crisis, with a consensus that banks' bonus practices added fuel to the risk-taking that brought about the near-collapse of the global economy in 2009.
Rescue measures by western governments have forced taxpayers to shoulder the costs of supporting crippled lenders, sparking a subsequent debt crisis across a number of countries in the EU.
The European parliament's measure will also force banks to provide country-by-country reporting of profits made, taxes paid and subsidies received by next year, a measure designed to prevent tax evasion.
The bonus cap added to the uncertainty over how quickly Europe's financial sector would recover from the crisis of the past few years, said Michael Tomalin, the chief executive of National Bank of Abu Dhabi.
"One of the things that worries me is we have got compensation limits coming in in Europe now," he said.
Other financial centres such as New York, Singapore and Hong Kong may now appear relatively more competitive to bank staff, Mr Tomalin added, asking: "Won't that make matters in Europe even worse?"
The agreement had been "hard won" but reflected a "well balanced" compromise, said Michael Noonan, the Irish finance minister, in a statement announcing the breakthrough deal.
"During the financial crisis, European taxpayers had to recapitalise banks. This overhaul of EU banking rules will make sure that banks in the future have enough capital, both in terms of quality and quantity, to withstand shocks," he said. "This will ensure that taxpayers across Europe are protected into the future."
For European banks seeking to grow their business in the Middle East, there are questions about how easily staff positions will be filled.
"It's a concern," said one regional bank chief, who asked not to be identified.
The impact could be seen in the UAE, where the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) reported a 16 per cent rise in the number of employees working there last year. Several European financial services firms were among those setting up, the DIFC said in September as the number of companies based in the free zone increased by 6 per cent in the first half of last year. In the third quarter of last year, the DIFC said that 36 per cent of registered companies were from Europe, 11 per cent from Asia, 16 per cent from North America and 26 per cent from the Middle East.
While some lenders trimmed staff in the Arabian Gulf as mergers and acquisitions slowed in the region in the wake of the 2009 financial crisis, a return of activity has encouraged banks to hire again.
Nomura Holdings, Japan's largest investment bank, plans to revamp its Middle Eastern operations after losing several top executives in the past year, its regional head told Reuters.
However, though losing talent in a country was unfortunate, Europe had been dealing with its bankers going overseas for years, the banker said.
"The brain drain didn't start yesterday," the banker said, adding that thousands of bankers from Europe were already working in London.
But the policy is already setting the scene for a political showdown in the United Kingdom, where the London mayor Boris Johnson has lashed out at the EU measure.
"People will wonder why we stay in the EU if it persists in such transparently self-defeating policies," Mr Johnson said in a statement carried by Reuters. "Brussels cannot control the global market for banking talent, Brussels cannot set pay for bankers around the world."
The measure would likely shunt bank staff to Zurich, Singapore and New York at the EU's expense, Mr Johnson said.
"This is possibly the most deluded measure to come from Europe since Diocletian tried to fix the price of groceries across the Roman empire," he added.
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Founder: Ayman Badawi
Date started: Test product September 2016, paid launch January 2017
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Software
Size: Seven employees
Funding: $170,000 in angel investment
Funders: friends
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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