Central Asian deal paves way for non-Russian gas to Europe

Turkey and Azerbaijan have signed a long-awaited natural gas deal, opening the way for the first Central Asian gas exports to Europe. The memorandum of understanding signed earlier today on the sidelines of an energy security summit in Istanbul could be crucial in securing early gas supplies for the proposed ?7.9 billion (Dh34.65bn) Nabucco pipeline, which aims to supply Central Asian and Middle Eastern gas to Europe through Turkey, bypassing Russia.

The agreement also advances Ankara's plan to establish Turkey as an energy hub for oil and gas supplies to Europe. Under the deal, Turkey would have the right to re-export gas from the second phase of production of the giant Shah Deniz field in the Caspian Sea offshore Azerbaijan. "This opens the way for the securing of supplies for projects like Nabucco," said Taner Yildiz, the Turkish energy minister. "The signing today will accelerate the Nabucco project."

The president of Socar, the Azeri national petroleum company, said Azerbaijan planned to send 10 billion cubic metres per year of gas from Shah Deniz II to Europe, starting in 2018. Another 1 billion cubic metres per year could supply customers in Turkey. "This is a step in the right direction," said Reinhard Mitschek, the managing director of the Nabucco development consortium, which is led by the Austrian petroleum group OMV.

The EU has pledged financing for the pipeline because it regards Nabucco as strategically important in reducing Europe's dependence on Russian gas. Last week, the Turkish parliament ratified an intergovernmental agreement with five EU countries on construction of the 3,300km pipeline, which would pass through Turkey, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania on its way to delivering supplies to an Austrian gas hub on the outskirts of Vienna.

Turkey and Azerbaijan have been in talks since 2008 over a gas agreement, which was a prerequisite for the further development of the Shah Deniz field. The second phase of the big Caspian project was expected to underpin Azeri gas exports to Europe. Negotiations had been complicated by Baku's strong objections to a Turkish proposal to open its border with Armenia, with which Azerbaijan is technically at war in a dispute over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. But in April, Armenia suspended talks aimed at establishing normal diplomatic relations with Turkey.

According to Mr Yildiz, the deal signed by the the Azeri president Ilham Aliyev and the Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan included an agreement on the price of Turkish gas imports from phase I of Shah Deniz. That had been a sticky issue during the protracted negotiations. Mr Yildiz said the agreement would allow the price of the gas to be adjusted according to market conditions, rather than being fixed. Turkey would pay less for Azeri supplies than for Russian imports, he added.

Nabucco is aiming to secure up to 31 billion cubic metres per year of gas from a number of countries, but analysts and some industry sources regard Azeri supplies as crucial to the project's viability. They could pave the way for later supplies from other Caspian states including Turkmenistan, which holds the world's fifth biggest gas reserves, and from Middle Eastern producers including Iraq, Qatar and even Iran.

Ashti Hawrami, the energy minister of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq, said in Istanbul today that Kurdistan was ready to commit surplus gas supplies to Nabucco. That would depend, however, on the region reaching an accord with Baghdad over gas exports. Separately, Baghdad has expressed interest in supplying up to 15 billion cubic metres of gas to Nabucco from untapped fields in the rest of Iraq.

Turkmenistan announced last month that it would soon start building a 1,000km pipeline linking big gasfields in its eastern desert to the Caspian Sea coast, in preparation for exports to Europe. The UAE has expressed interest in backing the project. Even if the Nabucco initiative fails, the Turkish-Azeri gas agreement could bolster rival developments aimed at supplying Caspian gas to Europe. Those include the Italy-Turkey-Greece Interconnector and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline projects.

The biggest rival to Nabucco, however, remains Gazprom's Southstream project to supply Russian gas to Europe through a pipeline under the Black Sea. Earlier today, Russia signed a deal with Greece for construction of the ?20bn pipeline. tcarlisle@thenational.ae

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Name: Yousef Al Bahar

Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994

Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers