US president-elect Donald Trump's threat of tariffs brings a new degree of uncertainty to the global economic outlook, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.
"Not surprisingly, given the size and role of US economy, there is keen interest globally in the policy directions of the incoming administration, in particular on tariffs, taxes, deregulation and government efficiency," she told reporters at the fund's headquarters in Washington.
"This uncertainty is particularly high around the path for trade policy going forward, adding to the headwinds facing the global economy."
While she did not mention Mr Trump by name, her remarks echo a consensus among economists and central banks on the uncertainty of the incoming administration's direction when it comes to US policy.
Her remarks come 10 days before Mr Trump is set to return to the White House after running a campaign whose economic agenda championed protectionist policies.
Mr Trump has maintained his position of planning to impose universal tariffs on 10 to 20 per cent of all imports, as well as an additional 60 per cent levy on goods from China. The IMF chief has warned over the course of the last year of the rising threats of fragmentation.
The inflationary potential of these policies as well as stronger-than-expected US growth have caused a recent spike in the bonds market, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to its highest level since 2023 earlier on Friday off the back of a strong employment report.
Yields on the 10-year Treasury closed at 4.765 per cent, more than 100 basis points since the Fed began reducing interest rates in September. The Fed’s target range is currently 4.25-4.5 per cent, 100 basis points lower since September.
"So you get 200 points divergence," Ms Georgieva said.
When he assumes office on January 20, Mr Trump will be inheriting an economy that continues to outperform expectations.
The US economy grew by a robust 3.10 per cent last quarter, driven by consumer spending despite higher borrowing costs. While inflation has fallen on an uneven path, the labour market remains on solid footing.
The IMF in October projected the US economy to grow by 2.2 per cent this year after an estimated 2.8 per cent growth in 2024.
The strength of the US economy has also given Fed officials reason to pare back rate cuts, likely to begin with a pause later this month. Ms Georgieva said the Fed can "afford to wait" on more data before issuing another rate cut.
This also reflects a divergence in monetary policy, she said, noting that while the global disinflationary trend will continue, progress is stalled in some countries.
US economic strength also contributes to a divergence in global growth prospects. While the US economy is doing better than the IMF had anticipated, Ms Georgieva said India's economy is a "little weaker" and China continues to face deflationary pressures and challenges to domestic demand.
"And low-income countries, despite all the efforts they are making, are in a position when any new shock can affect them quite negatively," she said.
Speaking on the shift in market expectations, the IMF chief noted the current strength of the US dollar against other advanced currencies as well as emerging market currencies. Ms Georgieva said the stronger dollar could lead to higher funding costs for emerging market and low-income economies.
Faced with higher long-term borrowing costs, Ms Georgieva said countries can "only grow" out of debt.
"We have been talking about it for quite some time, lowest medium-term growth prospects in decades. And what is even more concerning is that the main reason for slowing growth is slowing productivity growth," she said.
The fund's most recent projections estimate the global economy to grow at an anaemic 3.1 per cent in the medium-term.
The IMF will release its updated World Economic Outlook on January 17.
What are the main cyber security threats?
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities.
Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids.
Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
MATCH INFO
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Lexus LX700h specs
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Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Healthy tips to remember
Here, Dr Mohamed El Abiary, paediatric consultant at Al Zahra Hospital Dubai, shares some advice for parents whose children are fasting during the holy month of Ramadan:
Gradual fasting and golden points - For children under the age of 10, follow a step-by-step approach to fasting and don't push them beyond their limits. Start with a few hours fasting a day and increase it to a half fast and full fast when the child is ready. Every individual's ability varies as per the age and personal readiness. You could introduce a points system that awards the child and offers them encouragement when they make progress with the amount of hours they fast
Why fast? - Explain to your child why they are fasting. By shedding light on the importance of abstaining from food and drink, children may feel more encouraged to give it there all during the observance period. It is also a good opportunity to teach children about controlling urges, doing good for others and instilling healthy food habits
Sleep and suhoor - A child needs adequate sleep every night - at least eight hours. Make sure to set a routine early bedtime so he/she has sufficient time to wake up for suhoor, which is an essential meal at the beginning of the day
Good diet - Nutritious food is crucial to ensuring a healthy Ramadan for children. They must refrain from eating too much junk food as well as canned goods and snacks and drinks high in sugar. Foods that are rich in nutrients, vitamins and proteins, like fruits, fresh meats and vegetables, make for a good balanced diet
TERMINAL HIGH ALTITUDE AREA DEFENCE (THAAD)
What is THAAD?
It is considered to be the US's most superior missile defence system.
Production:
It was created in 2008.
Speed:
THAAD missiles can travel at over Mach 8, so fast that it is hypersonic.
Abilities:
THAAD is designed to take out ballistic missiles as they are on their downward trajectory towards their target, otherwise known as the "terminal phase".
Purpose:
To protect high-value strategic sites, such as airfields or population centres.
Range:
THAAD can target projectiles inside and outside the Earth's atmosphere, at an altitude of 150 kilometres above the Earth's surface.
Creators:
Lockheed Martin was originally granted the contract to develop the system in 1992. Defence company Raytheon sub-contracts to develop other major parts of the system, such as ground-based radar.
UAE and THAAD:
In 2011, the UAE became the first country outside of the US to buy two THAAD missile defence systems. It then stationed them in 2016, becoming the first Gulf country to do so.
How has net migration to UK changed?
The figure was broadly flat immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic, standing at 216,000 in the year to June 2018 and 224,000 in the year to June 2019.
It then dropped to an estimated 111,000 in the year to June 2020 when restrictions introduced during the pandemic limited travel and movement.
The total rose to 254,000 in the year to June 2021, followed by steep jumps to 634,000 in the year to June 2022 and 906,000 in the year to June 2023.
The latest available figure of 728,000 for the 12 months to June 2024 suggests levels are starting to decrease.
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
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The Africa Institute 101
Housed on the same site as the original Africa Hall, which first hosted an Arab-African Symposium in 1976, the newly renovated building will be home to a think tank and postgraduate studies hub (it will offer master’s and PhD programmes). The centre will focus on both the historical and contemporary links between Africa and the Gulf, and will serve as a meeting place for conferences, symposia, lectures, film screenings, plays, musical performances and more. In fact, today it is hosting a symposium – 5-plus-1: Rethinking Abstraction that will look at the six decades of Frank Bowling’s career, as well as those of his contemporaries that invested social, cultural and personal meaning into abstraction.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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DMZ facts
- The DMZ was created as a buffer after the 1950-53 Korean War.
- It runs 248 kilometers across the Korean Peninsula and is 4km wide.
- The zone is jointly overseen by the US-led United Nations Command and North Korea.
- It is littered with an estimated 2 million mines, tank traps, razor wire fences and guard posts.
- Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un met at a building in Panmunjom, where an armistice was signed to stop the Korean War.
- Panmunjom is 52km north of the Korean capital Seoul and 147km south of Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital.
- Former US president Bill Clinton visited Panmunjom in 1993, while Ronald Reagan visited the DMZ in 1983, George W. Bush in 2002 and Barack Obama visited a nearby military camp in 2012.
- Mr Trump planned to visit in November 2017, but heavy fog that prevented his helicopter from landing.
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
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The Vile
Starring: Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah
Director: Majid Al Ansari
Rating: 4/5
