The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) slashed growth forecasts on Thursday for Turkey, its biggest lending market, but left the rest of its region largely unscathed despite growing pressures.
The development bank still expects all 38 of the economies where it works to grow this year and next, but cutting Turkey's forecast a combined 4 percentage points, along with a possible recession there, will lower the region's overall growth rate by 0.6 per cent points to 2.6 per cent next year.
The cut comes after turmoil in Turkey, where the lira has lost about a third of its value and forced the country's central bank to nearly double domestic interest rates to fend off a full-blown currency crisis.
"We have downgraded our Turkey forecasts to 1 per cent [for 2019] and that of course has a major impact on our overall forecast for the whole region," said Sergei Guriev, EBRD's chief economist.
Turkey has seen tentative signs of stabilisation in recent weeks, Mr Guriev said, the year ahead was still going to be "very difficult". Growth is set to nosedive and the hike in interest rates will make it far more expensive for companies to refinance any loans that are coming due.
Elsewhere, the picture was more stable. Excluding Turkey, growth for the EBRD's region of operation, which stretches from Morocco to Mongolia, is forecast to stay around 3 per cent. Direct spillovers from Turkey's troubles are expected to be limited.
Economies including Poland, Hungary, Armenia, Mongolia and Turkmenistan all received forecast upgrades for 2018 and 2019. Russia is expected to grow 1.5 per cent in both years. Romania, Jordan and the Kyrgyz Republic all saw small or medium-sized reductions for both years. The EBRD also echoed the International Monetary Fund's recent warning of a growing set of pressures. "Escalation of trade conflicts is a major risk to the outlook," it said.
"Other risks include disruption to cross-border supply chains in the case of a no-deal Brexit, high levels of corporate indebtedness and geopolitical instability." An escalation in the trade war between the United States and China that slowed the global economy could cut "several decimal points" of growth from the EBRD's region, Mr Guriev said.
If big European economies like Germany get dragged into the feud, it would be significantly worse. "The good news for our countries is that they are part of European value chains ... and there is no foreseeable risk of a trade war within Europe or against Europe," he said.
_______________
Read more:
Turkey's inflation rate soars to 24.5% in September as lira slides
Turkey's massive new Istanbul airport faces a rough take-off
_______________
"But if for some reason Europe's trading partners introduce tariffs against Europe, or even west Europe, our countries will be very badly hit."
A no-deal Brexit, where Britain exits the European Union without a replacement trade deal, would hit south-eastern European countries hardest, the report said. Unless other member states increased their contributions to the EU, Brexit would lead to a 10 to 15 per cent decline in structural and accession funds available to countries in central and southeastern Europe. That would amount to a reduction of up to 0.4 percentage points of GDP in EU-supported investment.
Slovakian and Hungarian exports to the UK add an estimated 1.5 to 3 per cent to their gross domestic product, mainly in the automotive and machinery sectors.
Poland and Lithuania also have sizwable exports of food products, worth 1 to 2 per cent of their GDP.
"An additional impact may arise due to disruption in value chains that link the EBRD regions’ economies with advanced economies in Europe, which are in turn linked to the UK," the report said.
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hoopla%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jacqueline%20Perrottet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20required%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Company%20profile
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The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
3%20Body%20Problem
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreators%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20David%20Benioff%2C%20D%20B%20Weiss%2C%20Alexander%20Woo%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBenedict%20Wong%2C%20Jess%20Hong%2C%20Jovan%20Adepo%2C%20Eiza%20Gonzalez%2C%20John%20Bradley%2C%20Alex%20Sharp%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
Mobile phone packages comparison
MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Transmission: six-speed manual
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Speed: 0-100km/h 3.9 seconds
Price: Dh230,000
On sale: now
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tips for SMEs to cope
- Adapt your business model. Make changes that are future-proof to the new normal
- Make sure you have an online presence
- Open communication with suppliers, especially if they are international. Look for local suppliers to avoid delivery delays
- Open communication with customers to see how they are coping and be flexible about extending terms, etc
Courtesy: Craig Moore, founder and CEO of Beehive, which provides term finance and working capital finance to SMEs. Only SMEs that have been trading for two years are eligible for funding from Beehive.
Five%20calorie-packed%20Ramadan%20drinks
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERooh%20Afza%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20contains%20414%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETang%20orange%20drink%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%20300%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECarob%20beverage%20mix%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%20about%20300%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EQamar%20Al%20Din%20apricot%20drink%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20saving%20contains%2061%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EVimto%20fruit%20squash%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%2030%20calories%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Star%20Wars%3A%20Ahsoka%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Various%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rosario%20Dawson%2C%20Natasha%20Liu%20Bordizzo%2C%20Lars%20Mikkelsen%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
Our Time Has Come
Alyssa Ayres, Oxford University Press
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
CABINET%20OF%20CURIOSITIES%20EPISODE%201%3A%20LOT%2036
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGuillermo%20del%20Toro%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tim%20Blake%20Nelson%2C%20Sebastian%20Roche%2C%20Elpidia%20Carrillo%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
MATCH INFO
Chelsea 4 (Mount 18',Werner 44', Hudson-Odoi 49', Havertz 85')
Morecambe 0
BRIEF SCORES
England 228-7, 50 overs
N Sciver 51; J Goswami 3-23
India 219, 48.4 overs
P Raut 86, H Kaur 51; A Shrubsole 6-46
England won by nine runs
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
SPECS
Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 235hp
Torque: 350Nm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Price: From Dh167,500 ($45,000)
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
Naga
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SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2a)
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Cologne v Union Berlin (5.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Borussia Dortmund (5.30pm)
Hertha Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm)
Paderborn v Werder Bremen (5.30pm)
Wolfsburg v Freiburg (5.30pm)
Bayern Munich v Borussia Monchengladbach (8.30pm)
Sunday
Mainz v Augsburg (5.30pm)
Schalke v Bayer Leverkusen (8pm)
Top 10 in the F1 drivers' standings
1. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 202 points
2. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes-GP 188
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes-GP 169
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull Racing 117
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 116
6. Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing 67
7. Sergio Perez, Force India 56
8. Esteban Ocon, Force India 45
9. Carlos Sainz Jr, Toro Rosso 35
10. Nico Hulkenberg, Renault 26
