Trade wars may not be as dramatic as real wars, but they are also destructive, and more insidious. Markets seem relatively unconcerned, despite the escalation of US-China rhetoric and imposition of tariffs. The prospect of rising trade barriers contains some opportunities for the Middle East, but also challenges.
Donald Trump has said that the US would leave the World Trade Organisation unless it “shapes up”. In March, he imposed a 25 per cent tariff on steel and a 10 per cent tariff on aluminium imports. US trade representative Robert Lighthizer has announced that, from late September, $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, including food, minerals, chemicals and consumer goods, face a 25 per cent tariff. Beijing has announced it would respond proportionately.
For now, China has refrained from imposing a threatened 25 per cent tariff on US crude oil imports, but has imposed the tariff on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. China took 17 cargoes of American LNG in January-May this year, one cargo in June and none in July. Chinese buyers have also shunned US oil in August, after buying 300,000 barrels per day in June and July, because of fears that tariffs might be imposed while they are waiting for a tanker-load to arrive.
Since the US exported $188bn of goods and services to China last year, while importing $524bn, if China is to retaliate fully against the threatened US tariffs, it will have to slap duties on a major category such as oil. The EU, Canada and Mexico have also announced retaliatory tariffs, though these do not yet include energy. The GCC does not sell much to the US, apart from oil, but $1.8bn of aluminium was its second-most important export.
The US’s agenda of “energy dominance” will suffer if it can not access a key expanding market such as China, hampering further growth in output. The duties on aluminium and steel already raise costs for American oil producers and pipeline companies. US oil and gas would be dumped in other countries, creating an opening for Middle Eastern exporters to win market share in the Middle Kingdom.
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Read more:
US and Canada to resume Nafta talks despite Trump inflammatory remarks
Trade war threats get real as US and China impose tariffs
Trade war effects will only take shape in August
IMF says global growth to slow in medium term as it warns of trade war harm
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The GCC might also benefit from cheaper food as Chinese and American farmers look for other markets. And if Chinese investment becomes less welcome in key destinations such as the US, Canada, the UK and Australia, Gulf money – which comes with less political baggage - will be needed.
Any moderate gains in the Middle East’s energy revenues, though, pale beside the negative impact of tariffs on the world economy. It is unlikely a trade war would cause a recession on its own, but it could be the negative shock that combines with other factors, such as a Chinese slowdown, contagion from Turkey’s crisis, rising interest rates, an oil price spike driven by lost output from Iran and Venezuela, and the natural end of a long economic expansion.
Just a 1 per cent drop in world economic growth could cut demand forecasts by 600,000 barrels per day or so, presenting Opec with the tricky task of reinstating its production cuts and potentially attracting more blame for keeping prices too high.
A general turn to protectionism would also be bad news for the region’s diversification efforts. Periodic complaints by competitors over below-market price inputs to petrochemical firms, and unfounded allegations of subsidies to airlines such as Emirates and Etihad, have been dismissed so far, but could return in a more insular world.
To head off the prospect of restrictive trade measures, the Middle East needs to step up its diplomatic efforts. The GCC launched negotiations for a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU in 1990, but talks were suspended in 2008. Dialogue continues on long-awaited FTAs with China and India.
The Middle East lags behind other parts of the globe when it comes to free trade pacts as a region. The Greater Arab Free Trade Area has broad coverage but no enforcement mechanism. The World Bank’s recent Arab Competitiveness Report, points to a lack of trade integration, particularly from non-tariff barriers such as varying regulations and informal prohibitions, as one of the region’s biggest problems.
Political problems and insecurity have hampered major cross-border projects, leading to wasteful duplication of similar infrastructure, and lack of connectivity such as international railways. In energy trade, very little gas or electricity flows from producers to nearby deficit markets. A few tentative steps, for instance to sell some of Egypt’s new gas surplus to Jordan, or electricity from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to Iraq in return for Iraqi gas to Kuwait, just illustrate how much more could be done with sufficient political will.
The region’s giant national energy champions expand overseas into promising markets such as China and south-east Asia, but more needs to be done within the Middle East outside their home country. The joint venture between Adnoc and Saudi Aramco for India’s Ratnagiri refinery, Mubadala’s stake in Egypt’s Sumed oil pipeline, and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation’s investment in Oman’s Duqm refinery, are quite rare examples of cooperation.
The prospects of a trade war, or just a milder slowdown in international trade, is bad news for oil demand and for the Middle East’s economic diversification. The region may do best to stay out of the melee for now as the trade giants of the US, China and the EU fight. But it needs to safeguard its future by opening trade within and beyond the Middle East.
Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
Scores
Rajasthan Royals 160-8 (20 ov)
Kolkata Knight Riders 163-3 (18.5 ov)
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
THE CARD
2pm: Maiden Dh 60,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
2.30pm: Handicap Dh 76,000 (D) 1,400m
3pm: Handicap Dh 64,000 (D) 1,200m
3.30pm: Shadwell Farm Conditions Dh 100,000 (D) 1,000m
4pm: Maiden Dh 60,000 (D) 1,000m
4.30pm: Handicap 64,000 (D) 1,950m
How England have scored their set-piece goals in Russia
Three Penalties
v Panama, Group Stage (Harry Kane)
v Panama, Group Stage (Kane)
v Colombia, Last 16 (Kane)
Four Corners
v Tunisia, Group Stage (Kane, via John Stones header, from Ashley Young corner)
v Tunisia, Group Stage (Kane, via Harry Maguire header, from Kieran Trippier corner)
v Panama, Group Stage (Stones, header, from Trippier corner)
v Sweden, Quarter-Final (Maguire, header, from Young corner)
One Free-Kick
v Panama, Group Stage (Stones, via Jordan Henderson, Kane header, and Raheem Sterling, from Tripper free-kick)
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
Company%20Profile
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Company%20Profile
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder MHEV
Power: 360bhp
Torque: 500Nm
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Price: from Dh282,870
On sale: now
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
Results
Stage 7:
1. Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal - 3:18:29
2. Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep - same time
3. Phil Bauhaus (GER) Bahrain Victorious
4. Michael Morkov (DEN) Deceuninck-QuickStep
5. Cees Bol (NED) Team DSM
General Classification:
1. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates - 24:00:28
2. Adam Yates (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers - 0:00:35
3. Joao Almeida (POR) Deceuninck-QuickStep - 0:01:02
4. Chris Harper (AUS) Jumbo-Visma - 0:01:42
5. Neilson Powless (USA) EF Education-Nippo - 0:01:45
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
How to help
Donate towards food and a flight by transferring money to this registered charity's account.
Account name: Dar Al Ber Society
Account Number: 11 530 734
IBAN: AE 9805 000 000 000 11 530 734
Bank Name: Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
To ensure that your contribution reaches these people, please send the copy of deposit/transfer receipt to: juhi.khan@daralber.ae
Company%20Profile
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Yemen's Bahais and the charges they often face
The Baha'i faith was made known in Yemen in the 19th century, first introduced by an Iranian man named Ali Muhammad Al Shirazi, considered the Herald of the Baha'i faith in 1844.
The Baha'i faith has had a growing number of followers in recent years despite persecution in Yemen and Iran.
Today, some 2,000 Baha'is reside in Yemen, according to Insaf.
"The 24 defendants represented by the House of Justice, which has intelligence outfits from the uS and the UK working to carry out an espionage scheme in Yemen under the guise of religion.. aimed to impant and found the Bahai sect on Yemeni soil by bringing foreign Bahais from abroad and homing them in Yemen," the charge sheet said.
Baha'Ullah, the founder of the Bahai faith, was exiled by the Ottoman Empire in 1868 from Iran to what is now Israel. Now, the Bahai faith's highest governing body, known as the Universal House of Justice, is based in the Israeli city of Haifa, which the Bahais turn towards during prayer.
The Houthis cite this as collective "evidence" of Bahai "links" to Israel - which the Houthis consider their enemy.
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
The Florida Project
Director: Sean Baker
Starring: Bria Vinaite, Brooklynn Prince, Willem Dafoe
Four stars
Bob%20Marley%3A%20One%20Love
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Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
HER%20FIRST%20PALESTINIAN
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UAE%20v%20West%20Indies
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Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
STAY%2C%20DAUGHTER
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How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
THE LOWDOWN
Photograph
Rating: 4/5
Produced by: Poetic License Motion Pictures; RSVP Movies
Director: Ritesh Batra
Cast: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Sanya Malhotra, Farrukh Jaffar, Deepak Chauhan, Vijay Raaz
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
UFC%20FIGHT%20NIGHT%3A%20SAUDI%20ARABIA%20RESULTS
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EA Sports FC 25
Developer: EA Vancouver, EA Romania
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4&5, Xbox One and Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
