UK economy exits bleak winter as World Cup boosts spending

The UK economy is bouncing back from a near standstill in the first quarter and a summer boost to consumer spending is supporting the pick up.

Gross domestic product product increased 0.2 per cent in the three months through May, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in its first publication of rolling monthly growth figures. In May alone, output gained 0.3 per cent, while a report from Barclaycard showed household spending rose at the fastest annual pace in more than a year in June.

The figures support Bank of England (BOE) governor Mark Carney’s argument that the slump at the beginning of the year was temporary and weather related. Policymakers are considering whether to raise interest rates as early as next month if evidence suggests the UK expansion is fast enough to stoke domestic inflation pressures.

While the economy is stabilising, the big uncertainty for the outlook remains politics. Prime Minister Theresa May this week lost two senior ministers in the space of a day, and is under pressure from pro-Brexit policymakers in her Conservative Party. As the government fights over how to leave the European Union, businesses are furious over the lack of clarity and investment decisions are at risk.

The change in format for the GDP release means that the BOE won’t have a full second-quarter estimate of growth when it meets next month. Mr Carney has nevertheless said that the rate-setting panel will have enough information to make a decision.

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Energy giant BP bets on electric car boom

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Tuesday’s report suggests growth will accelerate in the second quarter from the first, when it slowed to a meagre 0.2 per cent. Services would have to fall 1.7 per cent in June to have a neutral impact on the period, and construction would have to decline 1.5 per cent.

"Growth is on course to rebound in the second quarter after a weak first quarter. Assuming Prime Minister Theresa May and her government manage to survive the prevailing political storm, all signs from the data imply the Bank of England will raise interest rates in August."
Recent evidence suggests that England's success in the World Cup football tournament is boosting UK consumer activity. Barclaycard said Tuesday that spending jumped 5.1 per cent in June from a year earlier.

Construction output surged 2.9 per cent in May, the most in more than two years, extending a rebound from a snow-blighted first quarter, the statistics office said. Manufacturing production gained a weaker-than-expected 0.4 per cent. Overall industrial production unexpectedly fell, hurt by a shutdown at the Sullom Voe oil and gas terminal in the North Sea.

Separate figures showed the trade deficit in goods was little changed at £12.4 billion (Dh60.31bn). The overall trade gap narrowed.

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)

Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi

Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi

Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai

Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi

Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia

Emergency

Director: Kangana Ranaut

Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry

Rating: 2/5

Europe’s rearming plan

Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital

Sui Dhaaga: Made in India

Director: Sharat Katariya

Starring: Varun Dhawan, Anushka Sharma, Raghubir Yadav

3.5/5

Mia Man’s tips for fermentation

- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut

- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.

- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.

- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.

What are NFTs?

Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.

You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”

However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.

This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”

This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Directed by Sam Mendes

Starring Dean-Charles Chapman, George MacKay, Daniel Mays

4.5/5

LAST 16 DRAW

Borussia Dortmund v PSG

Real Madrid v Manchester City

Atalanta v Valencia

Atletico Madrid v Liverpool

Chelsea v Bayern Munich

Lyon v Juventus

Tottenham v Leipzig

Napoli v Barcelona

The specs: 2018 Audi Q5/SQ5

Price, base: Dh183,900 / Dh249,000
Engine: 2.0L, turbocharged in-line four-cylinder / 3.0L, turbocharged V6
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic / Eight-speed automatic
Power: 252hp @ 5,000rpm / 354hp @ 5,400rpm
Torque: 370Nm @ 1,600rpm / 500Nm @ 1,370rpm
Fuel economy: combined 7.2L / 100km / 8.3L / 100km

How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE

When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.