From trade wars to Brexit talks, here are the answers to the key questions for the world economy in 2019.
Will the global economy slump?
No. For sure, financial markets are skittish, central banks are turning away from easy money and there is a trade war under way. But the International Monetary Fund still forecasts a third year of growth around 3.7 per cent, and even if the world falls short of that it’s still set for a fairly decent expansion. Ballast should come from monetary policy staying historically loose, governments easing fiscal policy and tight labor markets.
What Bloomberg Economists say: 2018 started with strong, coordinated global growth. 2019 will not. The world economy will expand at a slower pace, and with a marked divergence between the US and the rest. Heightened financial market volatility and shrinking export orders flag that the peak of the cycle is past. They are not an indicator of impending recession.
Will the trade war escalate or fade?
This is arguably the biggest question confronting the global economy in 2019. And the fact there is no clear answer ought to be reason to worry. The tentative truce between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping is encouraging in the short term. Nervy financial markets and concerns over the moderating of both economies have been pushing the two leaders in the direction of a deal. Then again, even with a grand bargain, the majority of the US tariffs on $250 billion in imports from China will remain in place through 2019. As will the threat of more to come if China doesn’t deliver meaningful reforms. Likewise, there are likely to be more ups and downs in relations through the year. There will be more tweets from Mr Trump and invocations of China’s history of standing up to foreign pressure from Mr Xi. The trade wars are becoming a permanent feature of relations between the world’s two largest economies.
What Bloomberg economists say: The trade truce between the US and China will hold. China won’t deliver the deep structural reforms US hawks are demanding. It will do enough for the US to claim a win and kick more protectionist measures further down the road. Even in that optimistic scenario, the front-loading of exports in 2018 will reduce shipments in 2019.
Will the Federal Reserve pause hiking interest rates?
The Fed projects two rate increases in 2019 and another move in 2020, based on a confident outlook of continuing solid growth. Investors think that optimism misses underlying economic weakness. Fear the Fed will tighten too far has triggered steep losses in US stocks. Also expect more Twitter pressure from Mr Trump on Chairman Jerome Powell if monetary policy keeps getting tightened.
What Bloomberg economists say: The recent tightening in financial conditions and cooling global growth will not be enough to cause the Fed to pause rate hikes in 2019. While the economy is expected to moderate, growth will remain above its long-run trend and a strong 2018 suggests that some additional inflationary pressures may be in the pipeline. This argues for a few more rate hikes to ensure that inflation does not unexpectedly rise.
Can China control its slowdown without massive stimulus?
It’s going to be a close-run thing, though the first quarter should provide a strong signal. By then, the extent of the negative impact of the trade war on exports should become clearer as the effect of ‘‘front-loading’’ of shipments begins to wane. Progress, or otherwise, in trade negotiations between China and the US ought to become evident as a March 1 deadline approaches. Policy makers are showing every sign of wanting to continue with targeted, limited stimulus measures. A lot rests on the consumer though. Retail sales growth ended 2018 near the slowest pace in over a decade, suggesting that rising household debt coupled with cost-of-living surges in the biggest cities is really beginning to bite. It may take a more explicit pro-growth strategy from the government to break that negative cycle.
What Bloomberg economists say: China can probably achieve a gradual deceleration in growth, but the path the trade war takes is pivotal for the growth composition. Less pressures on exports in the scenario of easing trade tensions would give policy makers more room to respond in a measured way that entails less reliance on investment-driven economic stabilization -- a positive for long-term growth. Yet in a scenario of intensified trade tensions, policy makers would probably shift to strong stimulus, particularly if combined effects of external and domestic demand pressures lead to widespread unemployment and corporate distress.
Will there be a Brexit deal?
The probability has increased of a no-deal Brexit which the Bank of England says could have catastrophic consequences for the economy. While most economists still expect disaster to be avoided, even that won’t clear the way for gangbusters growth. With retailers struggling, house price growth slowing and inflation still above the BOE’s target, the expansion is expected to remain at best subdued and well below the pace seen before 2016’s referendum.
What Bloomberg economists say: Among all the Brexit noise, one clear message has emerged: a majority of UK lawmakers are against a no-deal outcome. That leaves us quietly confident that a pact between the UK and EU will emerge next year. For the economy, the news would likely deliver a cyclical boost as more certainty, looser fiscal policy and faster real-income growth all help to raise gross domestic product growth to close to 2 per cent.
Will Emerging Markets Suffer a Fresh Crisis?
Emerging markets at least have a more dovish Fed and softer oil prices to offer calm in 2019, and market analysts are on their side: EM assets are forecast to make a comeback in 2019, following their worst year in three, according to a Bloomberg survey of 30 investors, traders and strategists. Morgan Stanley even says such economies will return to drive world growth. Yet pockets of stress still risk explosion. Argentina and Turkey always face political risks, while South Korea is ridden with debt and Russia could be slapped by fresh US sanctions. South Africa is dealing with a wobbly economy and election uncertainty. Latin American currencies, such as the Mexican, Colombian and Argentine peso, remain vulnerable as questions linger over the ability of governments to control spending.
What Bloomberg economists say: Uncertainty about Fed tightening, trade and oil prices will spill into the new year. A slowdown in global growth could fuel further risk for emerging markets. But the next crisis is likely to start closer to home, with politics delivering the spark.
Will the ECB get to hike interest rates?
It depends on whom you ask. The European Central Bank says euro-zone interest rates will be kept at record lows “at least through the summer of 2019,” implying that the liftoff could come late in the year. Economists share the ECB’s analysis that domestically driven growth is solid despite recent weak data, and predict the first increase in September. Investors take a different view. They’re concerned the single currency area is on the verge of a more protracted slowdown amid trade tensions and political instability. They’re pricing a move around April 2020, by which time it will be the job of President Mario Draghi’s successor.
What Bloomberg economists say: Definitely, if the outlook unfolds as Mr Draghi and his colleagues at the European Central Bank expect. Growth of 0.5 per cent a quarter for much of next year and solid gains in pay would mean there is little reason to delay. Our own forecasts see growth settling at 0.4 per cent a quarter -- that suggests a hike to the deposit rate will still come in 2019, but a little later.
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Read more:
2018 in review: hopes for Hyperloop the only good news for tech
Nine of the best videos from The National in 2018
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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Chatham House Rule
A mark of Chatham House’s influence 100 years on since its founding, was Moscow’s formal declaration last month that it was an “undesirable
organisation”.
The depth of knowledge and academics that it drew on
following the Ukraine invasion had broadcast Mr Putin’s chicanery.
The institute is more used to accommodating world leaders,
with Nelson Mandela, Margaret Thatcher among those helping it provide
authoritative commentary on world events.
Chatham House was formally founded as the Royal Institute of
International Affairs following the peace conferences of World War One. Its
founder, Lionel Curtis, wanted a more scientific examination of international affairs
with a transparent exchange of information and ideas.
That arena of debate and analysis was enhanced by the “Chatham
House Rule” states that the contents of any meeting can be discussed outside Chatham
House but no mention can be made identifying individuals who commented.
This has enabled some candid exchanges on difficult subjects
allowing a greater degree of free speech from high-ranking figures.
These meetings are highly valued, so much so that
ambassadors reported them in secret diplomatic cables that – when they were
revealed in the Wikileaks reporting – were thus found to have broken the rule. However,
most speeches are held on the record.
Its research and debate has offered fresh ideas to
policymakers enabling them to more coherently address troubling issues from climate
change to health and food security.
KINGDOM%20OF%20THE%20PLANET%20OF%20THE%20APES
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Company%20Profile
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Company%20Profile
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Bio:
Favourite Quote: Prophet Mohammad's quotes There is reward for kindness to every living thing and A good man treats women with honour
Favourite Hobby: Serving poor people
Favourite Book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite food: Fish and vegetables
Favourite place to visit: London
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
Baftas 2020 winners
BEST FILM
- 1917 - Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Sam Mendes, Jayne-Ann Tenggren
- THE IRISHMAN - Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal, Martin Scorsese, Emma Tillinger Koskoff
- JOKER - Bradley Cooper, Todd Phillips, Emma Tillinger Koskoff
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh, Quentin Tarantino
- PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho, Kwak Sin-ae
DIRECTOR
- 1917 - Sam Mendes
- THE IRISHMAN - Martin Scorsese
- JOKER - Todd Phillips
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Quentin Tarantino
- PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
- 1917 - Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Jayne-Ann Tenggren, Krysty Wilson-Cairns
- BAIT - Mark Jenkin, Kate Byers, Linn Waite
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
- ROCKETMAN - Dexter Fletcher, Adam Bohling, David Furnish, David Reid, Matthew Vaughn, Lee Hall
- SORRY WE MISSED YOU - Ken Loach, Rebecca O’Brien, Paul Laverty
- THE TWO POPES - Fernando Meirelles, Jonathan Eirich, Dan Lin, Tracey Seaward, Anthony McCarten
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
- THE FAREWELL - Lulu Wang, Daniele Melia
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
- PAIN AND GLORY - Pedro Almodóvar, Agustín Almodóvar
- PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho
- PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE - Céline Sciamma, Bénédicte Couvreur
LEADING ACTRESS
- JESSIE BUCKLEY - Wild Rose
- SCARLETT JOHANSSON - Marriage Story
- SAOIRSE RONAN - Little Women
- CHARLIZE THERON - Bombshell
- RENÉE ZELLWEGER - Judy
LEADING ACTOR
- LEONARDO DICAPRIO - Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood
- ADAM DRIVER - Marriage Story
- TARON EGERTON - Rocketman
- JOAQUIN PHOENIX - Joker
- JONATHAN PRYCE - The Two Popes
SUPPORTING ACTOR
- TOM HANKS - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
- ANTHONY HOPKINS - The Two Popes
- AL PACINO - The Irishman
- JOE PESCI - The Irishman
- BRAD PITT - Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- LAURA DERN - Marriage Story
- SCARLETT JOHANSSON - Jojo Rabbit
- FLORENCE PUGH - Little Women
- MARGOT ROBBIE - Bombshell
- MARGOT ROBBIE - Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- THE IRISHMAN - Steven Zaillian
- JOJO RABBIT - Taika Waititi
- JOKER - Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
- LITTLE WOMEN - Greta Gerwig
- THE TWO POPES - Anthony McCarten
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- BOOKSMART - Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Katie Silberman
- KNIVES OUT - Rian Johnson
- MARRIAGE STORY - Noah Baumbach
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Quentin Tarantino
- PARASITE - Han Jin Won, Bong Joon ho
DOCUMENTARY
- AMERICAN FACTORY - Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert
- APOLLO 11 - Todd Douglas Miller
- DIEGO MARADONA - Asif Kapadia
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
- THE GREAT HACK - Karim Amer, Jehane Noujaime
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
- BAIT - Mark Jenkin (Writer/Director), Kate Byers, Linn Waite (Producers)
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab (Director/Producer), Edward Watts (Director)
- MAIDEN - Alex Holmes (Director)
- ONLY YOU - Harry Wootliff (Writer/Director)
- RETABLO - Álvaro Delgado-Aparicio (Writer/Director)
ANIMATED FILM
- FROZEN 2 - Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho
- KLAUS - Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh
- A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON - Will Becher, Richard Phelan, Paul Kewley
- TOY STORY 4 - Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen
CASTING
- JOKER - Shayna Markowitz
- MARRIAGE STORY - Douglas Aibel, Francine Maisler
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Victoria Thomas
- THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD - Sarah Crowe
- THE TWO POPES - Nina Gold
EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)
- AWKWAFINA
- JACK LOWDEN
- KAITLYN DEVER
- KELVIN HARRISON JR.
- MICHEAL WARD
CINEMATOGRAPHY
- 1917 - Roger Deakins
- THE IRISHMAN - Rodrigo Prieto
- JOKER - Lawrence Sher
- LE MANS ’66 - Phedon Papamichael
- THE LIGHTHOUSE - Jarin Blaschke
EDITING
- THE IRISHMAN - Thelma Schoonmaker
- JOJO RABBIT - Tom Eagles
- JOKER - Jeff Groth
- LE MANS ’66 - Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Fred Raskin
COSTUME DESIGN
- THE IRISHMAN - Christopher Peterson, Sandy Powell
- JOJO RABBIT - Mayes C. Rubeo
- JUDY - Jany Temime
- LITTLE WOMEN - Jacqueline Durran
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Arianne Phillips
PRODUCTION DESIGN
- 1917 - Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales
- THE IRISHMAN - Bob Shaw, Regina Graves
- JOJO RABBIT - Ra Vincent, Nora Sopková
- JOKER - Mark Friedberg, Kris Moran
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh
SOUND
- 1917 - Scott Millan, Oliver Tarney, Rachael Tate, Mark Taylor, Stuart Wilson
- JOKER - Tod Maitland, Alan Robert Murray, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic
- LE MANS ’66 - David Giammarco, Paul Massey, Steven A. Morrow, Donald Sylvester
- ROCKETMAN - Matthew Collinge, John Hayes, Mike Prestwood Smith, Danny Sheehan
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - David Acord, Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, Stuart Wilson, Matthew Wood
ORIGINAL SCORE
- 1917 - Thomas Newman
- JOJO RABBIT - Michael Giacchino
- JOKER - Hildur Guđnadóttir
- LITTLE WOMEN - Alexandre Desplat
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - John Williams
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
- 1917 - Greg Butler, Guillaume Rocheron, Dominic Tuohy
- AVENGERS: ENDGAME - Dan Deleeuw, Dan Sudick
- THE IRISHMAN - Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, Pablo Helman
- THE LION KING - Andrew R. Jones, Robert Legato, Elliot Newman, Adam Valdez
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy
MAKE UP & HAIR
- 1917 - Naomi Donne
- BOMBSHELL - Vivian Baker, Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan
- JOKER - Kay Georgiou, Nicki Ledermann
- JUDY - Jeremy Woodhead
- ROCKETMAN - Lizzie Yianni Georgiou
BRITISH SHORT FILM
- AZAAR - Myriam Raja, Nathanael Baring
- GOLDFISH - Hector Dockrill, Harri Kamalanathan, Benedict Turnbull, Laura Dockrill
- KAMALI - Sasha Rainbow, Rosalind Croad
- LEARNING TO SKATEBOARD IN A WARZONE (IF YOU’RE A GIRL) - Carol Dysinger, Elena Andreicheva
- THE TRAP - Lena Headey, Anthony Fitzgerald
BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION
- GRANDAD WAS A ROMANTIC - Maryam Mohajer
- IN HER BOOTS - Kathrin Steinbacher
- THE MAGIC BOAT - Naaman Azh
The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz E 300 Cabriolet
Price, base / as tested: Dh275,250 / Dh328,465
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder
Power: 245hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm @ 1,300rpm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.0L / 100km
