At least 80 per cent of Britain’s gas supplies and 70 per cent of oil must be sourced from abroad by 2030, a UK oil and gas trade body said on Tuesday, unless there is investment to boost North Sea output.
Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) said major investment is needed to offset a reliance on imports after Norway became the leading supplier of gas to Britain last year – the first time a single country has become the primary source.
Deirdre Michie, chief executive of Offshore Energies UK, said Britain’s overall oil and gas production will fall by up to 15 per cent a year unless there is rapid investment in new infrastructure.
“This decline is much faster than the predicted reduction in UK energy demand so, if there is no such investment then, by 2030, we will be reliant on other countries for at least 80 per cent of our gas and 70 per cent of our oil,” Ms Michie said.
“That gap will have to be filled by imports, meaning the UK will become ever more dependent on other countries.”
This reliance on imports is already happening, according to OEUK’s 2022 Business Outlook Report, after Norway's flows of natural gas exceeding Britain’s supply from its own continental shelf.
Energy security is a key political challenge following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and while Norway is a “reliable” source to import from, the country also has other customers it is committed to, the body said.
While 10 oil and gasfields are expected to start up in the UK in 2022 and early 2023, total gas supplies from the UK North Sea fields – net of volumes consumed by producers themselves – are expected to be between 28 billion and 30 billion cubic metres this year, according to OEUK.
That compares with 29 billion cubic metres in 2021, a sign that output is stagnating.
In comparison, Norwegian gas supplies to Britain exceeded 32 billion cubic metres last year, accounting for 64 per cent of the UK’s imports, the report showed.
Investment in Britain’s oil and gas sector has dropped sharply in the past decade and is expected to be about £4 billion this year, a significant drop on the £16bn a year in 2014 and £5.5bn in 2019, OEUK said.
Main drivers of the decline include major producers shifting away from fossil fuels as the UK transitions to net zero and an ageing UK basin, as well as a lack of support from the government, OEUK said.
Producers are urging the government to back the oil and gas industry with stable, long-term policies, as surging energy prices cause misery for householders who are facing much higher energy bills.
The Labour party is calling for a windfall tax on energy companies. However, it has also stressed the need for global investment in energy to increase supplies.
While the International Energy Agency has proposed a “no new investment” strategy around the world for the oil and gas sector, OEUK said failing to open up new oil and gas resources would make the UK and other countries “increasingly reliant on Russia and Opec member states”.
“It would push their share of the global oil supply market from 37 per cent now to 52 per cent by 2050. This has obvious implications for UK energy security,” Ms Michie said.
This can be avoided, however, by tapping resources in the North Sea, which still has more than 11 billion barrels of reserves – enough to meet UK demand for 13 years at current rates, she added, particularly during the transition to a net zero future.
“There is still enough oil and gas under our waters to maintain supplies during the transition to net zero,” Ms Michie said.
Last year, the UK consumed 76 billion cubic metres of gas, with 32 billion cubic metres of this coming from Norway, while 29 billion cubic metres came from the UK continental shelf.
With 45 million tonnes of oil produced in 2021, overall output was down by 17 per cent on 2020 and by 20 per cent on 2019.
“The energy gap between what we produce ourselves and that which comes from other nations will keep growing unless we invest in exploration and production on the UK's continental shelf,” said Ross Dornan, OEUK’s market intelligence manager.
“We must also accelerate the development of cleaner energy like hydrogen. Investment now will give us energy security in the years to come.”
Ms Michie said there is also great potential for wind.
“The government wants the current 10 gigawatts of offshore wind generation capacity to expand fourfold – meaning we must install about 3,000 more turbines by 2030,” she said.
“Electricity, however, accounts for only a fifth of the UK’s energy consumption. The UK has had some success in decarbonising power generation but the central roles of oil and gas in transport and heating have changed little since 2000,” Ms Michie said.
“It means mass hydrogen production, plus carbon capture and storage, must also come of age, alongside other measures to decarbonise transport and industry.”
Five films to watch
Castle in the Sky (1986)
Grave of the Fireflies (1988)
Only Yesterday (1991)
Pom Poki (1994)
The Tale of Princess Kaguya (2013)
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
Punchy appearance
Roars of support buoyed Mr Johnson in an extremely confident and combative appearance
'The Sky is Everywhere'
Director:Josephine Decker
Stars:Grace Kaufman, Pico Alexander, Jacques Colimon
Rating:2/5
Racecard
6pm: Mina Hamriya – Handicap (TB) $75,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
6.35pm: Al Wasl Stakes – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (Turf) 1,200m
7.10pm: UAE Oaks – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,900m
7.45pm: Blue Point Sprint – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,000m
8.20pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy – Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (T) 2,810m
8.55pm: Mina Rashid – Handicap (TB) $80,000 (T) 1,600m
HEADLINE HERE
- I would recommend writing out the text in the body
- And then copy into this box
- It can be as long as you link
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RESULT
Fifth ODI, at Headingley
England 351/9
Pakistan 297
England win by 54 runs (win series 4-0)
Who is Mohammed Al Halbousi?
The new speaker of Iraq’s parliament Mohammed Al Halbousi is the youngest person ever to serve in the role.
The 37-year-old was born in Al Garmah in Anbar and studied civil engineering in Baghdad before going into business. His development company Al Hadeed undertook reconstruction contracts rebuilding parts of Fallujah’s infrastructure.
He entered parliament in 2014 and served as a member of the human rights and finance committees until 2017. In August last year he was appointed governor of Anbar, a role in which he has struggled to secure funding to provide services in the war-damaged province and to secure the withdrawal of Shia militias. He relinquished the post when he was sworn in as a member of parliament on September 3.
He is a member of the Al Hal Sunni-based political party and the Sunni-led Coalition of Iraqi Forces, which is Iraq’s largest Sunni alliance with 37 seats from the May 12 election.
He maintains good relations with former Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki’s State of Law Coaliton, Hadi Al Amiri’s Badr Organisation and Iranian officials.
Traits of Chinese zodiac animals
Tiger:independent, successful, volatile
Rat:witty, creative, charming
Ox:diligent, perseverent, conservative
Rabbit:gracious, considerate, sensitive
Dragon:prosperous, brave, rash
Snake:calm, thoughtful, stubborn
Horse:faithful, energetic, carefree
Sheep:easy-going, peacemaker, curious
Monkey:family-orientated, clever, playful
Rooster:honest, confident, pompous
Dog:loyal, kind, perfectionist
Boar:loving, tolerant, indulgent
South and West: From a Notebook
Joan Didion
Fourth Estate
MORE ON INTERNATIONAL JUSTICE
UAE - India ties
The UAE is India’s third-largest trade partner after the US and China
Annual bilateral trade between India and the UAE has crossed US$ 60 billion
The UAE is the fourth-largest exporter of crude oil for India
Indians comprise the largest community with 3.3 million residents in the UAE
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi first visited the UAE in August 2015
His visit on August 23-24 will be the third in four years
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, visited India in February 2016
Sheikh Mohamed was the chief guest at India’s Republic Day celebrations in January 2017
Modi will visit Bahrain on August 24-25
Yuki Means Happiness
Alison Jean Lester
John Murray
The drill
Recharge as needed, says Mat Dryden: “We try to make it a rule that every two to three months, even if it’s for four days, we get away, get some time together, recharge, refresh.” The couple take an hour a day to check into their businesses and that’s it.
Stick to the schedule, says Mike Addo: “We have an entire wall known as ‘The Lab,’ covered with colour-coded Post-it notes dedicated to our joint weekly planner, content board, marketing strategy, trends, ideas and upcoming meetings.”
Be a team, suggests Addo: “When training together, you have to trust in each other’s abilities. Otherwise working out together very quickly becomes one person training the other.”
Pull your weight, says Thuymi Do: “To do what we do, there definitely can be no lazy member of the team.”
Captain Marvel
Director: Anna Boden, Ryan Fleck
Starring: Brie Larson, Samuel L Jackson, Jude Law, Ben Mendelsohn
4/5 stars
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Torbal Rayeh Wa Jayeh
Starring: Ali El Ghoureir, Khalil El Roumeithy, Mostafa Abo Seria
Stars: 3
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