Oil producers group Opec+'s decision to restore supply next month will add to an oil market glut expected this year, resulting in a decline in prices, experts say.
On Monday, the alliance of producers said it would proceed with a "gradual and flexible" unwinding of voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) starting on April 1, adding 138,000 bpd per month until September 2026. The planned return of production cuts – originally made by eight Opec+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, and Iraq in November 2023 – had been pushed back three times amid concerns about growing supply in the market.
Opec+ said that the increase could be halted or reversed if market conditions deteriorate.
“On net, this development has not changed our bearish oil price thesis as we had already thought Opec+ supply would return by the second quarter – exacerbating what is set to be an oversupplied market this year,” MUFG said in a research note.
An oil market surplus of more than 900,000 bpd, alongside an elevated spare capacity of 5.5 million bpd, should drive the “rebalancing” of oil prices, the bank said. MUFG expects Brent prices to average $69 a barrel in the second quarter of 2025 and $73 a barrel for the full year.
Brent, the benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s oil, was trading 1.82 per cent lower at $70.32 a barrel at 4.33pm UAE time following Opec+’s decision and investor concerns about the impact of US tariffs on crude demand growth.
A planned 25 per cent US tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods went into effect on Tuesday, alongside an additional 10 per cent duty on Chinese imports. Canada and Mexico are two of the largest crude suppliers to the US market. Oil exports from Canada are to have a lower tariff of 10 per cent. Last week, media reports suggested Opec+ could delay plans to increase production due to uncertainty about the impact of tariffs and US sanctions on Venezuela, Iran and Russia.
“A fourth postponement would have needed exceptionally bearish market conditions, which is not the case,” said Vandana Hari, the founder of the consultancy Vanda Insights. “Yes, crude is under pressure from the US’s tariff wars as they can slow down economies, but it would be a mistake to assume the conflicts will drag on,” Ms Hari told The National.
“Trump is using the duties as tools to extract the agreements he wants … on stemming the flow of illicit drugs into the US. It would be premature to assume a full-on, all-out trade war.”
Opec+ is currently holding back 5.86 million bpd from the market as part of a series of production cuts made since 2022, representing 5.6 per cent of current global oil supply. On Monday, the eight member countries also reaffirmed their commitment to voluntary production adjustments and pledged to fully compensate for overproduction since the beginning of 2024 by June next year.
"By bringing forward the compensation cuts of past overproduction of some Opec+ member states, we think the effective production increase will be smaller than the announced 138,000 bpd," said Giovanni Staunovo, a strategist at UBS. "There is no indication that the group is fighting for market share; rather, we believe the group is focused on supply management to keep the oil market in balance," he added.
However, phasing barrels back in to markets to establish a large base load level of Opec+ production "could be a shift in strategy to preserving market share and away from targeting specific price levels", Dubai bank Emirates NBD said in a note. The bank expects Brent prices to average $70 a barrel in the fourth quarter as global inventories build over the year due to higher production.
“Downside risks may grow more material if a global trade war widens and shipping has to re-orient to shorter, more regional routes or exporters forgo shipments entirely,” the lender said. “Diplomatic efforts to reintegrate Russia into unrestricted commodities trade also represents another downside risk for oil and commodity prices in 2025."
The International Energy Agency expects global oil supply to rise by 1.6 million bpd to 104.5 million bpd this year, while global oil demand growth is projected to average 1.1 million bpd.
From Europe to the Middle East, economic success brings wealth - and lifestyle diseases
A rise in obesity figures and the need for more public spending is a familiar trend in the developing world as western lifestyles are adopted.
One in five deaths around the world is now caused by bad diet, with obesity the fastest growing global risk. A high body mass index is also the top cause of metabolic diseases relating to death and disability in Kuwait, Qatar and Oman – and second on the list in Bahrain.
In Britain, heart disease, lung cancer and Alzheimer’s remain among the leading causes of death, and people there are spending more time suffering from health problems.
The UK is expected to spend $421.4 billion on healthcare by 2040, up from $239.3 billion in 2014.
And development assistance for health is talking about the financial aid given to governments to support social, environmental development of developing countries.
Zombieland: Double Tap
Director: Ruben Fleischer
Stars: Woody Harrelson, Jesse Eisenberg, Emma Stone
Four out of five stars
If%20you%20go
%3Cp%3E%0DThere%20are%20regular%20flights%20from%20Dubai%20to%20Addis%20Ababa%20with%20Ethiopian%20Airlines%20with%20return%20fares%20from%20Dh1%2C700.%20Nashulai%20Journeys%20offers%20tailormade%20and%20ready%20made%20trips%20in%20Africa%20while%20Tesfa%20Tours%20has%20a%20number%20of%20different%20community%20trekking%20tours%20throughout%20northern%20Ethiopia.%20%20The%20Ben%20Abeba%20Lodge%20has%20rooms%20from%20Dh228%2C%20and%20champions%20a%20programme%20of%20re-forestation%20in%20the%20surrounding%20area.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SHOW COURTS ORDER OF PLAY
Wimbledon order of play on Tuesday, July 11
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Centre Court
Adrian Mannarino v Novak Djokovic (2)
Venus Williams (10) v Jelena Ostapenko (13)
Johanna Konta (6) v Simona Halep (2)
Court 1
Garbine Muguruza (14) v
Svetlana Kuznetsova (7)
Magdalena Rybarikova v Coco Vandeweghe (24)
More coverage from the Future Forum
Walls
Louis Tomlinson
3 out of 5 stars
(Syco Music/Arista Records)
SPECS
Engine: 4-litre V8 twin-turbo
Power: 630hp
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: 8-speed Tiptronic automatic
Price: From Dh599,000
On sale: Now
How the bonus system works
The two riders are among several riders in the UAE to receive the top payment of £10,000 under the Thank You Fund of £16 million (Dh80m), which was announced in conjunction with Deliveroo's £8 billion (Dh40bn) stock market listing earlier this year.
The £10,000 (Dh50,000) payment is made to those riders who have completed the highest number of orders in each market.
There are also riders who will receive payments of £1,000 (Dh5,000) and £500 (Dh2,500).
All riders who have worked with Deliveroo for at least one year and completed 2,000 orders will receive £200 (Dh1,000), the company said when it announced the scheme.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Results
6.30pm: The Madjani Stakes (PA) Group 3 Dh175,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Aatebat Al Khalediah, Fernando Jara (jockey), Ali Rashid Al Raihe (trainer).
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Down On Da Bayou, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Dubai Avenue, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: My Catch, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Dubai Creek Mile (TB) Listed Dh265,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Secret Ambition, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Golden Goal, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
Emirates exiles
Will Wilson is not the first player to have attained high-class representative honours after first learning to play rugby on the playing fields of UAE.
Jonny Macdonald
Abu Dhabi-born and raised, the current Jebel Ali Dragons assistant coach was selected to play for Scotland at the Hong Kong Sevens in 2011.
Jordan Onojaife
Having started rugby by chance when the Jumeirah College team were short of players, he later won the World Under 20 Championship with England.
Devante Onojaife
Followed older brother Jordan into England age-group rugby, as well as the pro game at Northampton Saints, but recently switched allegiance to Scotland.
'I Want You Back'
Director:Jason Orley
Stars:Jenny Slate, Charlie Day
Rating:4/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Moonfall
Director: Rolan Emmerich
Stars: Patrick Wilson, Halle Berry
Rating: 3/5
ARSENAL IN 1977
Feb 05 Arsenal 0-0 Sunderland
Feb 12 Manchester City 1-0 Arsenal
Feb 15 Middlesbrough 3-0 Arsenal
Feb 19 Arsenal 2-3 West Ham
Feb 26 Middlesbrough 4-1 Arsenal (FA Cup)
Mar 01 Everton 2-1 Arsenal
Mar 05 Arsenal 1-4 ipswich
March 08 Arsenal 1-2 West Brom
Mar 12 QPR 2-1 Arsenal
Mar 23 Stoke 1-1 Arsenal
Apr 02 Arsenal 3-0 Leicester
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Formula One top 10 drivers' standings after Japan
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes 306
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 247
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes 234
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull 192
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 148
6. Max Verstappen, Red Bull 111
7. Sergio Perez, Force India 82
8. Esteban Ocon, Force India 65
9. Carlos Sainz Jr, Toro Rosso 48
10. Nico Hulkenberg, Renault 34
Company profile
Company name: Dharma
Date started: 2018
Founders: Charaf El Mansouri, Nisma Benani, Leah Howe
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: TravelTech
Funding stage: Pre-series A
Investors: Convivialite Ventures, BY Partners, Shorooq Partners, L& Ventures, Flat6Labs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFixtures%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3ESaturday%2C%20May%2028%2C%20United%20States%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3ESunday%2C%20May%2029%2C%20United%20States%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3ETuesday%2C%20May%2031%2C%20UAE%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3EWednesday%2C%20June%201%2C%20UAE%20v%20United%20States%3Cbr%3EFriday%2C%20June%203%2C%20UAE%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3ESaturday%2C%20June%204%2C%20UAE%20v%20United%20States%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20squad%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAhmed%20Raza%20(captain)%2C%20Chirag%20Suri%2C%20Muhammad%20Waseem%2C%20Vriitya%20Aravind%2C%20CP%20Rizwan%2C%20Basil%20Hameed%2C%20Rohan%20Mustafa%2C%20Kashif%20Daud%2C%20Karthik%20Meiyappan%2C%20Zahoor%20Khan%2C%20Junaid%20Siddique%2C%20Alishan%20Sharafu%2C%20Akif%20Raja%2C%20Rahul%20Bhatia%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETable%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Oman%2032%2019%2011%2040%20%2B0.156%3Cbr%3E2.%20Scotland%2016%2011%203%2024%20%2B0.574%3Cbr%3E3.%20UAE%2018%2010%206%2022%20%2B0.22%3Cbr%3E4.%20Namibia%2014%207%207%2014%20%2B0.096%3Cbr%3E5.%20United%20States%2016%207%209%2014%20-0.229%3Cbr%3E6.%20Nepal%2012%206%206%2012%20%2B0.113%3Cbr%3E7.%20Papua%20New%20Guinea%2020%201%2019%202%20-0.856%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Dodge Durango SRT
Price, base / as tested: Dh259,000
Engine: 6.4-litre V8
Power: 475hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 640Nm @ 4,300rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.7L / 100km
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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'The Lost Daughter'
Director: Maggie Gyllenhaal
Starring: Olivia Colman, Jessie Buckley, Dakota Johnson
Rating: 4/5
What are the main cyber security threats?
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities.
Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids.
Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Stage result
1. Jasper Philipsen (Bel) Alpecin-Fenix 4:42:34
2. Sam Bennett (Irl) Bora-Hansgrohe
3. Elia Viviani (Ita) Ineos Grenadiers
4. Dylan Groenewegen (Ned) BikeExchange-Jayco
5. Emils Liepins (Lat) Trek-Segafredo
6. Arnaud Demare (Fra) Groupama-FDJ
7. Max Kanter (Ger) Movistar Team
8. Olav Kooij (Ned) Jumbo-Visma
9. Tom Devriendt (Bel) Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert Matériaux
10. Pascal Ackermann (Ger) UAE Team Emirate
Pros%20and%20cons%20of%20BNPL
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