Iraq's problems in recent years have been so dramatic as to obscure all else: the war against ISIL, the Kurdish struggle for independence, and a severe budget squeeze. Yet among all this, since 2011 and the Libyan revolution, Iraqi oil output has gained more than any country besides the US. The excellence of the country's geology, the contribution of international oil companies, and gradual gains in national capabilities, have managed to outweigh insecurity, bureaucracy, corruption and logistics.
From 2011 to 2016, Iraq’s output rose by almost 1.7 million barrels per day and it became the second-largest producer in Opec, and the fourth-largest in the world. It is still far short of 2009’s dreams of reaching 12 million barrels per day by now, and a long way behind Saudi Arabia’s 10 million bpd, but it has growing weight within the organisation. The International Energy Agency sees it growing another 0.7 million bpd by 2022, the biggest gain within Opec.
Iraq’s southern oil exports reached a record in January. According to Opec’s secondary sources, Iraqi production was at 4.405 million barrels per day in December, somewhat above its Opec target of 4.351 million bpd – it has been the least compliant country to the agreed cuts.
Continuing field developments could add another 270,000 bpd of capacity this year, mostly from the Halfaya field operated by Malaysia’s Petronas. Kuwait Energy, in partnership with ENOC subsidiary Dragon Oil, is hoping to double production at its Faihaa field to 30,000 bpd. Iraq’s 2018 budget seems to expect exports to gain about 100,000 bpd on last year, putting further strain on the Opec deal.
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Read more:
Compromise is key to Kurdistan oil recovery
Countries and companies converge on Kuwait City to meet Iraq's plea for funding
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But Baghdad’s plans suffered a significant blow when Shell and Petronas withdrew from the giant Majnoon field, part of a complex that includes Faihaa and two giants in Iran, Azadegan and Yadavaran. They are not the first companies to leave big projects in Iraq because fiscal terms were too tight and inflexible. Majnoon, whose 220,000 bpd output was supposed to reach 420,000 bpd by 2020, is a vital part of anticipated production growth.
In the longer term, Baghdad is hoping to boost output further from other fields under current development by international oil companies. A revised contract model, still under discussion, needs to sweeten the deal for newly-offered exploration blocks along the Kuwaiti and Iranian borders. The bid deadline is just before the national elections on May 12.
Since the central government retook control of the important city and giant oil-fields of Kirkuk in October, its exports via Kurdish Regional Government territory have been cut off. If Kirkuk had access to export routes, another 280,000 bpd or so of production could return. Iraq has agreed to truck 30,000-60,000 bpd of Kirkuk crude for refining in Iran, but really unlocking it will depend either on rebuilding the pipeline to Turkey destroyed by ISIL, which would take a couple of years, or reaching a deal with the Kurds. BP, which was part of the consortium that discovered the field back in 1927, recently signed a preliminary deal to restore the Kirkuk area’s production to 700,000 bpd.
Baghdad has plenty of leverage with Erbil, given the autonomous Kurdish region’s debt crisis: it has no way of repaying the $22 billion it owes to a number of creditors, of investing further in boosting its own production, and of paying government salaries and social benefits. The federal government is demanding control over the Khurmala field, the northern end of Kirkuk, operated by the Kurds since 2009, which yields a third of the Kurdistan region’s remaining output.
The elections will reshuffle the pack again. Current prime minister Haider Al Abadi gained great credit for defeating ISIL and even more in the Arab parts of Iraq for regaining territory from the Kurdish authorities. But he was then embarrassed when an electoral pact with militias close to Iran immediately fell apart, while his predecessor Nouri Al Maliki is angling for a comeback. Possible violence around election time, followed by protracted coalition-building and political manoeuvring after it, will delay the next phase of oil projects.
With some optimistic assumptions, the World Bank sees Iraq’s budget deficit falling next year, but this excludes any of the gigantic rebuilding costs for the areas liberated from ISIL. Mr Al Abadi has put reconstruction needs at $100 billion, but it appears that the US will not make any financial contributions at a conference held in Kuwait this week.
Once again, it will be up to the oil sector to shoulder the burden. The draft budget has a $19bn deficit, almost 11 per cent of GDP, which will come down a little allowing for higher oil prices, but continuing Opec limits on output. Bringing back Kirkuk and boosting production elsewhere as planned would virtually eliminate the deficit – but cannot be done without blowing the Opec deal apart and likely bringing down prices.
This tension can only be managed, not resolved. The country’s corruption, mismanagement and conflicts slow progress, but still advance is apparent. Iraq needs a long-term vision for where its oil sector is going; the rest of Opec needs a plan for how to respond.
Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
The specs: Macan Turbo
Engine: Dual synchronous electric motors
Power: 639hp
Torque: 1,130Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Touring range: 591km
Price: From Dh412,500
On sale: Deliveries start in October
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Expert advice
“Join in with a group like Cycle Safe Dubai or TrainYAS, where you’ll meet like-minded people and always have support on hand.”
Stewart Howison, co-founder of Cycle Safe Dubai and owner of Revolution Cycles
“When you sweat a lot, you lose a lot of salt and other electrolytes from your body. If your electrolytes drop enough, you will be at risk of cramping. To prevent salt deficiency, simply add an electrolyte mix to your water.”
Cornelia Gloor, head of RAK Hospital’s Rehabilitation and Physiotherapy Centre
“Don’t make the mistake of thinking you can ride as fast or as far during the summer as you do in cooler weather. The heat will make you expend more energy to maintain a speed that might normally be comfortable, so pace yourself when riding during the hotter parts of the day.”
Chandrashekar Nandi, physiotherapist at Burjeel Hospital in Dubai
Company profile
Name: Infinite8
Based: Dubai
Launch year: 2017
Number of employees: 90
Sector: Online gaming industry
Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor
Manikarnika: The Queen of Jhansi
Director: Kangana Ranaut, Krish Jagarlamudi
Producer: Zee Studios, Kamal Jain
Cast: Kangana Ranaut, Ankita Lokhande, Danny Denzongpa, Atul Kulkarni
Rating: 2.5/5
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
Five hymns the crowds can join in
Papal Mass will begin at 10.30am at the Zayed Sports City Stadium on Tuesday
Some 17 hymns will be sung by a 120-strong UAE choir
Five hymns will be rehearsed with crowds on Tuesday morning before the Pope arrives at stadium
‘Christ be our Light’ as the entrance song
‘All that I am’ for the offertory or during the symbolic offering of gifts at the altar
‘Make me a Channel of your Peace’ and ‘Soul of my Saviour’ for the communion
‘Tell out my Soul’ as the final hymn after the blessings from the Pope
The choir will also sing the hymn ‘Legions of Heaven’ in Arabic as ‘Assakiroo Sama’
There are 15 Arabic speakers from Syria, Lebanon and Jordan in the choir that comprises residents from the Philippines, India, France, Italy, America, Netherlands, Armenia and Indonesia
The choir will be accompanied by a brass ensemble and an organ
They will practice for the first time at the stadium on the eve of the public mass on Monday evening
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
WHAT ARE NFTs?
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are tokens that represent ownership of unique items. They allow the tokenisation of things such as art, collectibles and even real estate.
An NFT can have only one official owner at one time. And since they're minted and secured on the Ethereum blockchain, no one can modify the record of ownership, not even copy-paste it into a new one.
This means NFTs are not interchangeable and cannot be exchanged with other items. In contrast, fungible items, such as fiat currencies, can be exchanged because their value defines them rather than their unique properties.
Jumanji: The Next Level
Director: Jake Kasdan
Stars: Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, Karen Gillan, Jack Black, Nick Jonas
Two out of five stars
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre V6
Power: 295hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 355Nm at 5,200rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.7L/100km
Price: Dh179,999-plus
On sale: now
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The biog
Favourite food: Fish and seafood
Favourite hobby: Socialising with friends
Favourite quote: You only get out what you put in!
Favourite country to visit: Italy
Favourite film: Lock Stock and Two Smoking Barrels.
Family: We all have one!
Newcastle United 0 Tottenham Hotspur 2
Tottenham (Alli 61'), Davies (70')
Red card Jonjo Shelvey (Newcastle)
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Teams
India (playing XI): Virat Kohli (c), Ajinkya Rahane, Rohit Sharma, Mayank Agarwal, Cheteshwar Pujara, Hanuma Vihari, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Wriddhiman Saha (wk), Ishant Sharma, Mohammed Shami
South Africa (squad): Faf du Plessis (c), Temba Bavuma, Theunis de Bruyn, Quinton de Kock, Dean Elgar, Zubayr Hamza, Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Senuran Muthusamy, Lungi Ngidi, Anrich Nortje, Vernon Philander, Dane Piedt, Kagiso Rabada, Rudi Second
UFC%20in%20Abu%20Dhabi
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The bio
Favourite book: Peter Rabbit. I used to read it to my three children and still read it myself. If I am feeling down it brings back good memories.
Best thing about your job: Getting to help people. My mum always told me never to pass up an opportunity to do a good deed.
Best part of life in the UAE: The weather. The constant sunshine is amazing and there is always something to do, you have so many options when it comes to how to spend your day.
Favourite holiday destination: Malaysia. I went there for my honeymoon and ended up volunteering to teach local children for a few hours each day. It is such a special place and I plan to retire there one day.
History's medical milestones
1799 - First small pox vaccine administered
1846 - First public demonstration of anaesthesia in surgery
1861 - Louis Pasteur published his germ theory which proved that bacteria caused diseases
1895 - Discovery of x-rays
1923 - Heart valve surgery performed successfully for first time
1928 - Alexander Fleming discovers penicillin
1953 - Structure of DNA discovered
1952 - First organ transplant - a kidney - takes place
1954 - Clinical trials of birth control pill
1979 - MRI, or magnetic resonance imaging, scanned used to diagnose illness and injury.
1998 - The first adult live-donor liver transplant is carried out
Essentials
The flights: You can fly from the UAE to Iceland with one stop in Europe with a variety of airlines. Return flights with Emirates from Dubai to Stockholm, then Icelandair to Reykjavik, cost from Dh4,153 return. The whole trip takes 11 hours. British Airways flies from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Reykjavik, via London, with return flights taking 12 hours and costing from Dh2,490 return, including taxes.
The activities: A half-day Silfra snorkelling trip costs 14,990 Icelandic kronur (Dh544) with Dive.is. Inside the Volcano also takes half a day and costs 42,000 kronur (Dh1,524). The Jokulsarlon small-boat cruise lasts about an hour and costs 9,800 kronur (Dh356). Into the Glacier costs 19,500 kronur (Dh708). It lasts three to four hours.
The tours: It’s often better to book a tailor-made trip through a specialist operator. UK-based Discover the World offers seven nights, self-driving, across the island from £892 (Dh4,505) per person. This includes three nights’ accommodation at Hotel Husafell near Into the Glacier, two nights at Hotel Ranga and two nights at the Icelandair Hotel Klaustur. It includes car rental, plus an iPad with itinerary and tourist information pre-loaded onto it, while activities can be booked as optional extras. More information inspiredbyiceland.com
