Gas is in fashion in the Middle East. The region’s major national oil companies have announced ambitious plans to find, produce, transmute and export more.
But for the fuel to complement and ultimately supplant oil, a roadmap is required for the evolution.
Every one of the major Middle East producers’ gas reserves life at current production rates exceeds their oil reserves life. The UAE has 98 years of gas versus 68 years of oil; Iraq more than 120 years of gas compared to 90 years of oil. And as less attention has been paid historically to finding gas, they have the potential to boost reserves further.
Adnoc announced last month an updated gas strategy, covering the development of sour gas (containing toxic hydrogen sulphide), producing unconventional gas for the first time, boosting gas use in petrochemicals, and aiming for national self-sufficiency. It also awarded a 10 per cent stake in its offshore sour gas fields to Germany’s Wintershall, which will partner Eni of Italy.
Saudi Aramco plans to invest $150 billion over a decade to expand raw gas output from 14 billion cubic feet per day to 23 billion. It will also develop unconventional gas and is looking at investing in Russia’s Arctic-2 liquefied natural gas export project.
Meanwhile, despite leaving Opec, the world’s largest LNG exporter, Qatar, has expanded plans to boost its current 78 million tonnes per year capacity to 110 million. Bahrain announced discoveries of gas deep beneath the island, as well as offshore unconventional oil and gas. Kuwait is developing deep, sour light oil and gas in the country’s north. And Oman, the regional pioneer of tight gas (from low-permeability reservoirs, requiring hydraulic fracturing), has set gas production records via BP’s Khazzan project, and Shell and Total plan a series of investments there, including using LNG to fuel ships.
Even Iraq, long the regional laggard, is gradually boosting capture of flared gas, a by-product of oil production, to feed its underperforming power plants.
The NOCs are pivoting in the direction of the big international firms such as Shell, Equinor and Total, which now produce as much or more gas than oil. With ever-growing concerns over climate change and predictions of “peak oil demand” in the 2020s or 2030s due to the rise of electric vehicles, gas seems a safer bet.
Gas produces about 25 per cent less carbon dioxide per unit of energy when burned than oil and much lower other pollutants. Relatively cheap and abundant, a newly globalised business means it can quite readily be transported worldwide. It can generate electricity; fuel cars, lorries and ships either directly or by charging batteries; heat homes and drive industries; and be converted to petrochemicals.
Gas demand growth is quite strong but faces headwinds, mainly from environmentalists. In many Asian countries, coal remains cheaper than gas, if its pollution is ignored. Chinese tariffs would make it difficult for US LNG to compete there. Renewable electricity generation is getting ever cheaper and competes increasingly with gas in windy and sunny areas. Such dynamics suggest two outcomes for future gas.
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Read more:
Polish coal communities in shadow of UN climate talks lament loss of a way of life
Listen:
Business Extra podcast: Why Qatar is breaking ranks with Opec
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In the “dead end” view, which many environmentalists would espouse, gas will be replaced by renewable energy from now onwards. Home heating and cooking will be done by electricity and perhaps by “bio-gas” or “biomethane” derived from plant matter and manure.
Or, gas could be a “bridge fuel”, replacing coal and oil in the medium-term to reduce emissions but then being overtaken by renewable energy and electrified transport from the 2040s onwards. That is just the lifetime of a major gas platform or LNG plant away. Gas would preserve its role as a petrochemical feedstock, for now, but would have to compete with oil.
But there is a third possibility. The gas industry should articulate a positive vision and not be defensive about its product. Skilful communication has to be underpinned by huge climate-friendly research and investment. Such a vision would be of gas as a “destination fuel”, a long-term component of the energy mix. ExxonMobil and the US Energy Information Administration, for instance, see world gas demand passing 100 million barrels of oil equivalent, the current level of oil production, by the 2040s.
That would require keeping gas reasonably cheap, partnering resource holders with skilled expertise and completing a truly global market, including free trade in and out of the Middle East and the former Soviet Union. The Middle East Gas would have to supplant coal in China, India and South East Asia, and spread across Africa.
Methane leaks would need to be drastically reduced; in September, 13 leading oil companies in the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative, with Aramco the only Middle East representative, pledged to cut emissions.
Most of all, gas use would have to be accompanied by carbon capture and storage (CCS) to protect the climate, such as Adnoc’s planned expansion of its current successful Al Reyadah venture. High-efficiency gas electricity generation with integral carbon capture, like that of Net Power in the US, could be the answer. Transforming gas to hydrogen and capturing the carbon dioxide released would produce the ultimate clean fuel for planes, ships, industry and home heating.
Such a plan requires an ambitious combination of communication, politics, technology, investment and commercial savvy.
For those with abundant gas, it is the best way to assure a long-term future for today’s big plans.
Robin M Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
The biog
Name: Salem Alkarbi
Age: 32
Favourite Al Wasl player: Alexandre Oliveira
First started supporting Al Wasl: 7
Biggest rival: Al Nasr
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
Company%20Profile
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Company%20Profile
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
When Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi
Known as The Lady of Arabic Song, Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi on November 28, 1971, as part of celebrations for the fifth anniversary of the accession of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan as Ruler of Abu Dhabi. A concert hall was constructed for the event on land that is now Al Nahyan Stadium, behind Al Wahda Mall. The audience were treated to many of Kulthum's most well-known songs as part of the sold-out show, including Aghadan Alqak and Enta Omri.
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Various Artists
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Bert van Marwijk factfile
Born: May 19 1952
Place of birth: Deventer, Netherlands
Playing position: Midfielder
Teams managed:
1998-2000 Fortuna Sittard
2000-2004 Feyenoord
2004-2006 Borussia Dortmund
2007-2008 Feyenoord
2008-2012 Netherlands
2013-2014 Hamburg
2015-2017 Saudi Arabia
2018 Australia
Major honours (manager):
2001/02 Uefa Cup, Feyenoord
2007/08 KNVB Cup, Feyenoord
World Cup runner-up, Netherlands
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eco%20Way%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Kroshnyi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electric%20vehicles%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bootstrapped%20with%20undisclosed%20funding.%20Looking%20to%20raise%20funds%20from%20outside%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
Tu%20Jhoothi%20Main%20Makkaar%20
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Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
The biog
Job: Fitness entrepreneur, body-builder and trainer
Favourite superhero: Batman
Favourite quote: We must become the change we want to see, by Mahatma Gandhi.
Favourite car: Lamborghini
It's up to you to go green
Nils El Accad, chief executive and owner of Organic Foods and Café, says going green is about “lifestyle and attitude” rather than a “money change”; people need to plan ahead to fill water bottles in advance and take their own bags to the supermarket, he says.
“People always want someone else to do the work; it doesn’t work like that,” he adds. “The first step: you have to consciously make that decision and change.”
When he gets a takeaway, says Mr El Accad, he takes his own glass jars instead of accepting disposable aluminium containers, paper napkins and plastic tubs, cutlery and bags from restaurants.
He also plants his own crops and herbs at home and at the Sheikh Zayed store, from basil and rosemary to beans, squashes and papayas. “If you’re going to water anything, better it be tomatoes and cucumbers, something edible, than grass,” he says.
“All this throwaway plastic - cups, bottles, forks - has to go first,” says Mr El Accad, who has banned all disposable straws, whether plastic or even paper, from the café chain.
One of the latest changes he has implemented at his stores is to offer refills of liquid laundry detergent, to save plastic. The two brands Organic Foods stocks, Organic Larder and Sonnett, are both “triple-certified - you could eat the product”.
The Organic Larder detergent will soon be delivered in 200-litre metal oil drums before being decanted into 20-litre containers in-store.
Customers can refill their bottles at least 30 times before they start to degrade, he says. Organic Larder costs Dh35.75 for one litre and Dh62 for 2.75 litres and refills will cost 15 to 20 per cent less, Mr El Accad says.
But while there are savings to be had, going green tends to come with upfront costs and extra work and planning. Are we ready to refill bottles rather than throw them away? “You have to change,” says Mr El Accad. “I can only make it available.”
The low down
Producers: Uniglobe Entertainment & Vision Films
Director: Namrata Singh Gujral
Cast: Rajkummar Rao, Nargis Fakhri, Bo Derek, Candy Clark
Rating: 2/5
SOUTH%20KOREA%20SQUAD
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Six pitfalls to avoid when trading company stocks
Following fashion
Investing is cyclical, buying last year's winners often means holding this year's losers.
Losing your balance
You end up with too much exposure to an individual company or sector that has taken your fancy.
Being over active
If you chop and change your portfolio too often, dealing charges will eat up your gains.
Running your losers
Investors hate admitting mistakes and hold onto bad stocks hoping they will come good.
Selling in a panic
If you sell up when the market drops, you have locked yourself out of the recovery.
Timing the market
Even the best investor in the world cannot consistently call market movements.
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
Rashid & Rajab
Director: Mohammed Saeed Harib
Stars: Shadi Alfons, Marwan Abdullah, Doaa Mostafa Ragab
Two stars out of five
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FIXTURES
All kick-off times 10.45pm UAE ( 4 GMT) unless stated
Tuesday
Sevilla v Maribor
Spartak Moscow v Liverpool
Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk
Napoli v Feyenoord
Besiktas v RB Leipzig
Monaco v Porto
Apoel Nicosia v Tottenham Hotspur
Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid
Wednesday
Basel v Benfica
CSKA Moscow Manchester United
Paris Saint-Germain v Bayern Munich
Anderlecht v Celtic
Qarabag v Roma (8pm)
Atletico Madrid v Chelsea
Juventus v Olympiakos
Sporting Lisbon v Barcelona
