Nobody thinks a trade war between Europe and the world's second-biggest economy is a good idea. But that is the flight path the EU is heading down with its aviation carbon-tax legislation.
And the first sacrifices on the altar of the new-found "green" evangelism is the aircraft manufacturer Airbus - and the European Union's (EU) airline industry.
China is cancelling Airbus orders, putting jobs at risk at the company's factories across Europe. At the same time, nearly all the major European airlines have written an open letter pleading with the EU to drop the new law, which came into force on January 1.
Airliners contribute 3 per cent to global carbon dioxide emissions, and the EU has arbitrarily decided to charge them for flying to or from Europe as part of its battle over climate change. The bills will start to take effect from January 1.
Being charged to fly into or over Europe is bad enough, say the airlines, but the real sting is in the scope of the EU legislation. It will charge the airlines for its emissions over the entire route of their flights, not just the bit over EU airspace.
In the Middle East, Etihad Airways has responded by reluctantly imposing a fuel surcharge on all tickets for flights to European airports. The Chinese reaction has been more drastic.
In a series of announcements this month, Beijing cancelled orders for 45 Airbus A330 long-haul airliners, and 10 A380 superjumbos, worth more than US$14 billion (Dh51.4bn). Xinhua, China's national news agency, described the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) as a "trade barrier in the name of environmental protection". "It will be difficult to avoid a trade war focused on a carbon tax for airlines," it added. China is not alone.
"Every state will choose the most effective and reliable measures that will help to cancel or postpone the implementation of the EU emission trading system," said Valery Okulov, the deputy transport minister for Russia, at a meeting in Moscow last month held to draw up a "basket of counter measures" against the EU legislation.
More than 20 countries attended the meeting and retaliation, not negotiation, was on the agenda. Joining China in its opposition are Russia, India and the United States.
Proposals from the meeting included "issuing appropriate state regulation to prohibit national airlines to participate in EU ETS" and "mandating the EU carriers to submit similar flight details to the respective states as required by the EU in their scheme".
Other countermeasures considered were imposing additional levies on European carriers using the airspace of non-EU states, an idea that has attracted the interest of the Russians, Indians and Chinese. The meeting is scheduled to reconvene in Saudi Arabia within the next four months but China and Russia have already said their airlines will not comply with the emissions charge, which could keep their carriers from travelling across Europe altogether.
The US Congress has considered a similar measure.
This intensifying pressure has led Airbus and six European airlines to write to the leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Spain. They call for ETS to be "revisited", claiming the scheme will jeopardise more than 1,000 Airbus jobs and another 1,000 in support industries.
"Aircraft sales are different from selling wine or cars, you can't switch the sales button from off to on from one day to another. A red traffic light in aircraft sales can destroy years of sales efforts and damage-repair will take years," said Rainer Ohler, the head of Airbus public affairs and communications.
British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and Air Berlin, as well as the aerospace engine makers Safran France and MTU Aero Engines of Germany, also made their protests known. The airline industry estimates the cost of the ETS to airlines during the first eight years of operation will be US$23.8bn.
This stand-off, they wrote, "is becoming intolerable for the European aviation industry".
American airlines have confirmed they will abide by EU law "under protest" for the time being but they are pursuing other "legal options".
Elsewhere, the Indian government last year told its national airlines not to submit carbon emissions data to the EU.
It estimates ETS will cost its airlines $75m a year.
"If they don't call it off, we will retaliate," Prashant Sukul, the joint secretary for India's Ministry of Civil Aviation, told Aviation Week.
The EU, however, has issued a statement that Europe will "stick to its legal provisions".
So what happens next?
"It's a tricky one. Fight a trade war with the entire world, or back down," said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at Teal Group, referring to the Russian and Chinese reaction.
"It's very rare that markets will forbid any of their nation's airlines from obeying a law in another country. That demonstrates a clear signal that this is not even negotiable."
He believes the EU will have no choice in the end.
"I'm thinking they're going to back down."
But Annie Petsonk, the international counsel for the Environmental Defense Fund, does not believe the EU can back down.
"The EU can't just drop the law. It's a law. The EU has made it abundantly clear it will not delay, suspend or repeal the law."
The International Civil Aviation Organisation is now involved, but the deadlock looks like it will eventually be broken in the courts.
At the heart of the "legal options" for the airline lawyers is the international deal regulating air commerce, the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation.
"The contracting states recognise that every state has complete and exclusive sovereignty over the airspace above its territory," it stated.
ETS is imposing charges not only over its own air space, but over international air space, and the air space of other nations, and that, say the airlines, violates the agreement.
dblack@thenational.ae
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Cinco in numbers
Dh3.7 million
The estimated cost of Victoria Swarovski’s gem-encrusted Michael Cinco wedding gown
46
The number, in kilograms, that Swarovski’s wedding gown weighed.
1,000
The hours it took to create Cinco’s vermillion petal gown, as seen in his atelier [note, is the one he’s playing with in the corner of a room]
50
How many looks Cinco has created in a new collection to celebrate Ballet Philippines’ 50th birthday
3,000
The hours needed to create the butterfly gown worn by Aishwarya Rai to the 2018 Cannes Film Festival.
1.1 million
The number of followers that Michael Cinco’s Instagram account has garnered.
Know your cyber adversaries
Cryptojacking: Compromises a device or network to mine cryptocurrencies without an organisation's knowledge.
Distributed denial-of-service: Floods systems, servers or networks with information, effectively blocking them.
Man-in-the-middle attack: Intercepts two-way communication to obtain information, spy on participants or alter the outcome.
Malware: Installs itself in a network when a user clicks on a compromised link or email attachment.
Phishing: Aims to secure personal information, such as passwords and credit card numbers.
Ransomware: Encrypts user data, denying access and demands a payment to decrypt it.
Spyware: Collects information without the user's knowledge, which is then passed on to bad actors.
Trojans: Create a backdoor into systems, which becomes a point of entry for an attack.
Viruses: Infect applications in a system and replicate themselves as they go, just like their biological counterparts.
Worms: Send copies of themselves to other users or contacts. They don't attack the system, but they overload it.
Zero-day exploit: Exploits a vulnerability in software before a fix is found.
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
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RECORD%20BREAKER
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Sweet%20Tooth
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The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: seven-speed auto
Power: 420 bhp
Torque: 624Nm
Price: from Dh293,200
On sale: now
COMPANY%20PROFILE%3A
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Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
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THE SPECS
Engine: 6.0-litre, twin-turbocharged W12
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 626bhp
Torque: 900Nm
Price: Dh1,050,000
On sale: now
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
Zakat definitions
Zakat: an Arabic word meaning ‘to cleanse’ or ‘purification’.
Nisab: the minimum amount that a Muslim must have before being obliged to pay zakat. Traditionally, the nisab threshold was 87.48 grams of gold, or 612.36 grams of silver. The monetary value of the nisab therefore varies by current prices and currencies.
Zakat Al Mal: the ‘cleansing’ of wealth, as one of the five pillars of Islam; a spiritual duty for all Muslims meeting the ‘nisab’ wealth criteria in a lunar year, to pay 2.5 per cent of their wealth in alms to the deserving and needy.
Zakat Al Fitr: a donation to charity given during Ramadan, before Eid Al Fitr, in the form of food. Every adult Muslim who possesses food in excess of the needs of themselves and their family must pay two qadahs (an old measure just over 2 kilograms) of flour, wheat, barley or rice from each person in a household, as a minimum.
Match info
Uefa Champions League Group C
Liverpool v Napoli, midnight
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Saturday
Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm kick-off UAE)
Bayer Leverkusen v Schalke (5.30pm)
Wolfsburg v Cologne (5.30pm)
Mainz v Arminia Bielefeld (5.30pm)
Augsburg v Hoffenheim (5.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich (8.30pm)
Borussia Monchengladbach v Freiburg (10.30pm)
Sunday
VfB Stuttgart v Werder Bremen (5.30pm)
Union Berlin v Hertha Berlin (8pm)
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Watford v Leicester City (3.30pm)
Brighton v Arsenal (6pm)
West Ham v Wolves (8.30pm)
Bournemouth v Crystal Palace (10.45pm)
Sunday
Newcastle United v Sheffield United (5pm)
Aston Villa v Chelsea (7.15pm)
Everton v Liverpool (10pm)
Monday
Manchester City v Burnley (11pm)
Results
4pm: Maiden; Dh165,000 (Dirt); 1,400m
Winner: Solar Shower; William Lee (jockey); Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
4.35pm: Handicap; Dh165,000 (D); 2,000m
Winner: Thaaqib; Antonio Fresu; Erwan Charpy.
5.10pm: Maiden; Dh165,000 (Turf); 1,800m
Winner: Bila Shak; Adrie de Vries; Fawzi Nass
5.45pm: Handicap; Dh175,000 (D); 1,200m
Winner: Beachcomber Bay; Richard Mullen; Satish Seemar
6.20pm: Handicap; Dh205,000 (T); 1,800m
Winner: Muzdawaj; Jim Crowley; Musabah Al Muhairi
6.55pm: Handicap; Dh185,000 (D); 1,600m
Winner: Mazeed; Tadhg O’Shea; Satish Seemar
7.30pm: Handicap; Dh205,000 (T); 1,200m
Winner: Riflescope; Tadhg O’Shea; Satish Seemar.
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
PRESIDENTS CUP
Draw for Presidents Cup fourball matches on Thursday (Internationals first mention). All times UAE:
02.32am (Thursday): Marc Leishman/Joaquin Niemann v Tiger Woods/Justin Thomas
02.47am (Thursday): Adam Hadwin/Im Sung-jae v Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay
03.02am (Thursday): Adam Scott/An Byeong-hun v Bryson DeChambeau/Tony Finau
03.17am (Thursday): Hideki Matsuyama/CT Pan v Webb Simpson/Patrick Reed
03.32am (Thursday): Abraham Ancer/Louis Oosthuizen v Dustin Johnson/Gary Woodland
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It
Director: Andres Muschietti
Starring: Bill Skarsgard, Jaeden Lieberher, Sophia Lillis, Chosen Jacobs, Jeremy Ray Taylor
Three stars
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
Turning%20waste%20into%20fuel
%3Cp%3EAverage%20amount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20at%20DIC%20factory%20every%20month%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EApproximately%20106%2C000%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAmount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20from%201%20litre%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%20%3Cstrong%3E920ml%20(92%25)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETime%20required%20for%20one%20full%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%20used%20cooking%20oil%20to%20biofuel%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EOne%20day%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EEnergy%20requirements%20for%20one%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%201%2C000%20litres%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%96%AA%20Electricity%20-%201.1904%20units%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Water-%2031%20litres%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Diesel%20%E2%80%93%2026.275%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Scoreline
Arsenal 3
Aubameyang (28'), Welbeck (38', 81')
Red cards: El Neny (90' 3)
Southampton 2
Long (17'), Austin (73')
Red cards: Stephens (90' 2)
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