Gulf leaders are expected to decide on a location for the planned Gulf central bank today, an important milestone towards achieving monetary union and a common currency for GCC states. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain are all lobbying to host the monetary council as the six GCC member states, including Kuwait and Oman, gather to discuss the future of the union at a day-long summit in Riyadh.
The issue of location - which was supposed to be decided late last year - has been the main political sticking point. Although some other elements of the integration process remain on track, the creation of a monetary union will not be possible until Gulf leaders decide on where the central authority will be located and how it will be structured. This authority, which will first take the form of a GCC monetary council, will be charged with introducing the unified currency and eventually transforming itself into a fully fledged Gulf central bank.
"If they choose a proposed location, it would be a significant signal in terms of intention to move forward with the project," said Giyas Gokkent, the chief economist at National Bank of Abu Dhabi. "But what I'm looking for is more in terms of tangibles, like harmonising the banking system and financial regulations." The GCC monetary union, which has been a work in progress since 2001, will include all of the Gulf states except Oman, which in 2006 chose not to join.
Each of the four countries seeking to host the council have arguments in their favour. Saudi Arabia has the largest population and economy in the Gulf and the most political clout. But it also has the least open borders, which could create difficulties when recruiting professionals to work at and do business with the Gulf monetary authority. The UAE, by contrast, has a more developed financial sector and more open borders, although it is smaller.
Bahrain, with its history as a banking centre and proximity to Riyadh, can also make a strong case. Qatar, rich in natural gas, is expected to have the fastest-growing economy in the region. Nasser Saidi, the chief economist at the Dubai International Financial Centre, has suggested that the political question could be solved by spreading the monetary council's departments across different states.
"However, if it is in one country I do think it would make sense for a Gulf central bank to be located in the UAE," he said. "It's the most open economy, it has the most developed banking and financial sector. It's important that you have a strong supply of professionals that would support the central bank." Monetary union was originally due to be completed by Jan 1 next year. However, representatives from the GCC secretariat announced in March that some parts of the process, including producing the physical currency, would be delayed.
"Even if a common currency is pushed back by a few years, this will be very similar to what happened in Europe. The euro was issued 2½ years after monetary union," Mr Saidi said. The GCC will wait until the monetary council is established before producing a revised timetable for the introduction of the currency. The new council will also decide whether to peg the currency to the dollar, as most of the GCC countries have done with their own currencies, or to value it through some other mechanism.
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