A tangle of power lines hang over a tea stall in Gurgaon, India. Investments in infrastructure should focus on more than short-term growth. Bloomberg
A tangle of power lines hang over a tea stall in Gurgaon, India. Investments in infrastructure should focus on more than short-term growth. Bloomberg

Growth requires more than just three pillars



Over the past two decades, a thin consensus has been emerging on what countries should do to foster economic development and growth. It revolves around a three-pillar formula representing the lowest common denominator among development economists.

The first pillar is about the importance of developing a country's human capital. Human capital fuels economic growth and contributes significantly to higher labour productivity. It is also crucial for innovation and absorption of ideas and techniques from around the world.

No country can expect to grow fast and continue to grow and compete internationally without an accompanying commitment from its government to invest in human capital. So it is not surprising to learn the world invests about 4.6 per cent of its GDP on education.

Countries such as South Korea, Ireland and Singapore are said to owe their fast-tracking to advanced nation status to their high levels of investment in education and human capital.

The second pillar is physical infrastructure. It is an important enabler of economic activity and a prerequisite for inward investment, trade and productive activities.

Over the past five decades, governments across the world have invested in building traditional infrastructure, such as transport networks, sewerage systems and power grids. The trend continues and a recent report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development expects global investments in infrastructure over the next 20 years to grow to about US$70 trillion (Dh257.11tn).

Lately, governments have also rushed to invest in new infrastructure such as broadband networks and 3G mobile telecommunications systems, which by 2008 amounted to about 5.6 per cent of the world's GDP.

The third pillar is the hardest of them all: good governance. This includes having efficient and transparent public-sector institutions, strong laws on intellectual property rights, a fair competition law and an independent judicial system.

There is no doubt this three-pillars formula will help many countries mobilise their resources more efficiently. But a number of problems arise when one begins to use these as textbook prescriptions for economic development.

Let's start with investments in infrastructure. While infrastructure is seen by development economists as a key enabler of economic growth, policymakers view it more as a driver of short-term economic growth and invest in it accordingly.

Very recently, both new and traditional infrastructure have benefitted from new waves of investments as governments tried to spend their way out of the global downturn. But these investments are often geared towards short-term economic growth, rather than long-term economic growth.

In some cases, it is not clear whether an expansion or upgrade of infrastructure is actually needed. To give an example, 82 per cent of the US population is concentrated in cities and suburbs. Just how much impact would upgrading rural America's access to the internet have on its economic growth?

Unless there is clear evidence that more people would move out of the cities to the countryside as a result of the upgrade, the effect of the new investments in broadband infrastructure on the growth of the rural economy will be dismal.

Investment in human capital has followed a similar logic and has led to more education meaning more higher education. Across much of the world demand for higher education has soared, universities are overcrowded, staff are overworked and the quality of graduates is suffering.

The situation in the UK today is a witness to such policies. Years of New Labour's policy of getting more people into higher education have produced a glut of graduates in the labour market and strained the capacity of UK universities.

In developing countries, the situation is worse. In Jordan, Egypt and across much of the Arab world, masses of university graduates are unemployed, take under-skilled jobs or emigrate. In fact, the oversupply of university graduates has crowded out non-university graduates from the labour market and pushed the incomes of the rest to the bottom.

Good governance is important, and developing countries in particular still need to make long strides in this regard. But the lack of it does not explain the double-digit growth of China and Vietnam, or Russia and India.

This is unless "good" means something else, perhaps more along the definitions of the Harvard University economist Dani Rodrik, or the Financial Times international economy editor Alan Beattie. Professor Rodrik emphasises the stability and predictability of governance structures in an economy, rather than their efficient performance; while Mr Beattie emphasises the effectiveness of countries' institutions, rather than their transparency and correctness.

Companies from the developing world seem to much better understand good governance. Chinese, Indian and Arab telecoms companies are very active and successful in regions such as Africa and central Asia, where good governance is supposedly a rare currency.

Investors, it seems, are driven more by opportunity than good governance, and good governments seem to know that and take it into consideration while attracting foreign investors to invest in their economies.

Unless there is a UN embargo on a country, foreign investors tend to move in on the basis of special arrangements and agreements with the government of the host country, and without demanding substantial reforms to their governance culture and structure.

While infrastructure, human capital and good governance are very important, the question in the minds of many policymakers today is what next? Advanced economies that already enjoy high levels of human capital, infrastructure and good governance are increasingly finding themselves stagnant.

A Finnish delegation to London once put it this way: despite all the hoopla surrounding Finland's investment in new infrastructure, human capital and good governance, the country still occupies a mid-table position in the EU's GDP per capita rankings.

A straightforward answer does not exist and each country probably requires its own answer. But one area worth our attention is efficacy. Countries with similar levels of socio-economic development, along with matching physical and social infrastructure, tend to display different levels of economic performance.

The productivity gap between the EU and the US is consistently in favour of the latter. Northern Europe has higher productivity levels than continental and Mediterranean Europe. Malaysia and Korea started off with similar levels of human development but with different natural resources (Malaysia was richer). Both invested in infrastructure, human capital and good institutions, but South Korea still managed to grow much faster.

Efficacy is an important enigma to explore. Why is it that some countries make better use of their human capital, and physical and social infrastructure than others? Why would one village benefit in gaining access to broadband connectivity more than other villages, and one country benefit from a range of talents, while others allow talent to leave?

Closer to the policy domain, there is a clear need for a better match between investment in physical and social infrastructure and opportunity. The "build it and they will come" approach for investment is a platform for generating inefficiencies in an economy.

Infrastructure, education and good governance are enablers and not drivers of economic development, and accordingly governments should link their investments in infrastructure and human capital to specific growth opportunities, and where an expanded and upgraded capacity will make a real difference.

Dr Sami Mahroum is the director of INSEAD's innovation and policy initiative at the Abu Dhabi campus

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Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue

Director: M Night Shyamalan

Rating: 3/5

ENGLAND SQUAD

Goalkeepers Pickford (Everton), Pope (Burnley), Henderson (Manchester United)

Defenders Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool), Chilwell (Chelsea), Coady (Wolves), Dier (Tottenham), Gomez (Liverpool), James (Chelsea), Keane (Everton), Maguire (Manchester United), Maitland-Niles (Arsenal), Mings (Aston Villa), Saka (Arsenal), Trippier (Atletico Madrid), Walker (Manchester City)

Midfielders: Foden (Manchester City), Henderson (Liverpool), Grealish (Aston Villa), Mount (Chelsea), Rice (West Ham), Ward-Prowse (Southampton), Winks (Tottenham)

Forwards: Abraham (Chelsea), Calvert-Lewin (Everton), Kane (Tottenham), Rashford (Manchester United), Sancho (Borussia Dortmund), Sterling (Manchester City)