Regional banks given lift as plan eases fears



DUBAI // On a day when just about every UAE stock recorded gains, no sector seemed to profit more than regional banks. Dubai Islamic Bank, Emirates NBD and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) each climbed sharply on the news of Dubai World's debt restructuring proposal. Smaller banks such as Union National Bank and Ajman Bank also rose more than 5 per cent.

The Dubai Government said yesterday it would inject US$9.5 billion into Dubai World and its property developer Nakheel. And Nakheel said it would repay its trade creditors, ending months of uncertainty in the market about whether creditors will have to take a "haircut", or reduction, on their receivables. "The most surprising thing was that there are no haircuts and the loans will be restructured on commercial rates.

"This has pleasantly surprised the market," said Mohammed Ali Yasin, the general manager at Shuaa Securities. Banking stocks have taken a hammering since Dubai World announced in November it is seeking to restructure $26bn worth of loans with more than 90 local, regional and international lenders. Moody's Investors Service estimated last month that rated UAE banks have an overall exposure to Dubai World of Dh55bn.

It is not clear how those obligations are spread around. ADCB, the third-largest bank in Abu Dhabi, is the only local lender to quantify its exposure: Dh9bn in outstanding loans to Dubai World. About half of the total is supported by collateral and income streams from infrastructure and other projects, Alaa Eraiqat, the chief executive of ADCB, said this year. Along with Emirates NBD, the country's largest lender by assets, ADCB sits on the lenders' committee negotiating terms of restructuring with Dubai World.

While Dubai World officials made it clear that they did not favour local banks over their international peers, regional investors were clearly pleased with the terms of the suggested deal. Not only do sukuk holders get paid as the instruments mature, unlike the trade creditors who receive a combination of cash and securities, they should also benefit as the effects of the deal seep into the broader economy.

"This is the first time investors can quantify risks on equities. "I think with some more clarity on how the deal is being structured, markets will move forward," said Ian Munro, the head of equities research at the investment bank Mac Capital. @Email:skhan@thenational.ae

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”