Forex crosses maintained their ranges through July. After trading between 93.50 and 95.40 during July, the Dollar Index is just 0.15 per cent down on the month. Across the pond, the euro stabilised above 1.16 against the Greenback on the Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange (DGCX) and was up marginally (0.24 per cent) on the month. DGCX’s British pound contract broke below 1.30 levels before bouncing higher to settle above 1.31 levels and closing the month 0.47 per cent lower.
The week ahead promises to bring back volatility with a packed economic calendar ahead. Some of the key releases to watch out for include Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report along with the US Federal Open Market Committee rate decision on Wednesday and the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday.
If we start with the former, US payrolls were uneven at the last release. While monthly payrolls did come in above 200,000, it was slowing average hourly earnings and a worsening unemployment rate, which pegged back the US dollar. This time around both metrics will continue to be the main driving force behind dollar movement.
On the back of two rate rises already, the FOMC will not be raising at the meeting on Wednesday. They will, however, definitely observe an improving US data docket (especially that monstrous upside beat in the second quarter GDP reading – 4.1 per cent actual versus 2.2 per cent previously). Markets should perceive this as hawkish, which should lend some support to the dollar in the immediate short term and heading to Friday’s report.
Since the start of the summer the Dollar Index has gyrated between 93.50 and 95 levels, consistently bouncing off the lows while finding stiff resistance at the highs. So will next week be the kick-starter of a new dollar trend? I think not. Looking at the performance of the Greenback since June and correlating it to an improving US data docket would show movement only in the immediate short term (intraday). Improving figures see a flurry of dollar buying before settling over the following days. What this signifies is that dollar positioning is evening out until more developments are received from the ongoing trade war theme. Last week when the European Central Bank bowed down to US President Donald Trump, there was good upside movement in the Index and it is my belief that we would see a proper test of the aforementioned levels as this theme matures.
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Read more:
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Of course it is important to point out that the impacts of this ongoing trade war will no doubt start to have a negative impact on the US data docket and we will be in a position through August where the deterioration in US figures will finally start to catch up. This will then lend weight to a more bearish bias in the Greenback through the third quarter.
The other headline event that will no doubt see volatility is Thursday’s Bank of England rate decision. Uncertainty could not be higher heading into this month’s meeting. Economically, the bank will have processed a combination of weakening UK metrics, none more so than the most recent slowing inflation data, which showed that prices slowed to a one-year low. And politically, the Monetary Policy Committee will also remain very sensitive to ongoing political developments as UK Prime Minister Theresa May faces a tough Brexit road ahead. Despite these factors, markets are positioning themselves for an increase to 0.75 per cent with an expected voting pattern of seven in favour of an interest rate rise and two in favour of holding.
Other than the Fed, this makes the BoE the other key central bank to increase rates – no other central bank is adopting an aggressive stance towards future rates. Last week, ECB president Mario Draghi, in perhaps his most dovish state, maintained that rates would remain low through 2019 and that expansionary policy measures for the EU were still very much on the table. And earlier this week, the Bank of Japan in its own policy measures pledged to keep rates very low along with maintaining flexibility in its massive on-going quantitative easing programme.
Finally, keep an eye out for gold which continued weakening through the month. While the yellow metal did not fulfil our downside target at 1204 (hitting as low as 1211 on the DGCX), we expect a good test of these levels in the weeks ahead. Other than major deterioration in Middle East geo-politics, we see little else to stimulate gold buying and maintain our bearish view with 1235 levels now a key resistance level on the upside.
Gaurav Kashyap is a market strategist at Equiti Global Markets
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Equiti
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Company%20Profile
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'Downton Abbey: A New Era'
Director: Simon Curtis
Cast: Hugh Bonneville, Elizabeth McGovern, Maggie Smith, Michelle Dockery, Laura Carmichael, Jim Carter and Phyllis Logan
Rating: 4/5
Company%20Profile
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Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
'Ashkal'
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Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
Sustainable Development Goals
1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere
2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture
3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all
5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all
9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation and foster innovation
10. Reduce inequality within and among countries
11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its effects
14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Five personal finance podcasts from The National
To help you get started, tune into these Pocketful of Dirham episodes
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Balance is essential to happiness, health and wealth
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What is a portfolio stress test?
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What are NFTs and why are auction houses interested?
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How gamers are getting rich by earning cryptocurrencies
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Should you buy or rent a home in the UAE?
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
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Ticket prices
- Golden circle - Dh995
- Floor Standing - Dh495
- Lower Bowl Platinum - Dh95
- Lower Bowl premium - Dh795
- Lower Bowl Plus - Dh695
- Lower Bowl Standard- Dh595
- Upper Bowl Premium - Dh395
- Upper Bowl standard - Dh295
What is a robo-adviser?
Robo-advisers use an online sign-up process to gauge an investor’s risk tolerance by feeding information such as their age, income, saving goals and investment history into an algorithm, which then assigns them an investment portfolio, ranging from more conservative to higher risk ones.
These portfolios are made up of exchange traded funds (ETFs) with exposure to indices such as US and global equities, fixed-income products like bonds, though exposure to real estate, commodity ETFs or gold is also possible.
Investing in ETFs allows robo-advisers to offer fees far lower than traditional investments, such as actively managed mutual funds bought through a bank or broker. Investors can buy ETFs directly via a brokerage, but with robo-advisers they benefit from investment portfolios matched to their risk tolerance as well as being user friendly.
Many robo-advisers charge what are called wrap fees, meaning there are no additional fees such as subscription or withdrawal fees, success fees or fees for rebalancing.
Sweet%20Tooth
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THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
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List of alleged parties
- May 15 2020: Boris Johnson is said to have attended a Downing Street pizza party
- 27 Nov 2020: PM gives speech at leaving do for his staff
- Dec 10 2020: Staff party held by then-education secretary Gavin Williamson
- Dec 13 2020: Mr Johnson and his then-fiancee Carrie Symonds throw a flat party
- Dec 14 2020: Shaun Bailey holds staff party at Conservative Party headquarters
- Dec 15 2020: PM takes part in a staff quiz
- Dec 18 2020: Downing Street Christmas party
SPECS
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PROFILE OF STARZPLAY
Date started: 2014
Founders: Maaz Sheikh, Danny Bates
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment/Streaming Video On Demand
Number of employees: 125
Investors/Investment amount: $125 million. Major investors include Starz/Lionsgate, State Street, SEQ and Delta Partners
