It is a general rule of classical economics that downturns eventually make for leaner economies: inefficient businesses fall by the wayside, while those with a competitive edge prosper. Those battle-hardened companies that survive the slump often go on to devour their weaker competitors, buying them out and applying their own successful strategies to their new acquisitions. The result is a fitter, more productive economy all round.
Such is the theory; yet what of the practice? In the UAE for example, can the guiding principle of classical economics - scarcity - be said to have applied in a monetary environment which enjoyed growth in M3 (the broad definition of money supply that includes institutional money market funds) of almost 34 per cent at one point early last year? The abrupt closing off of liquidity in the last quarter of 2008 was akin to moving an entire economy from the greenhouse to the icehouse, and the sheer velocity of the previous liquidity-fuelled growth in the UAE arguably resulted in an equally severe shock to the system for all companies operating here.
As such, it comes as no surprise to discover that merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the Middle East, previously dominated by Gulf-based acquisitions, has slipped a staggering 86 per cent year on year, as reported recently by Mergermarket, an M&A intelligence provider. The fall is almost twice the global average of 46 per cent, and represents a slump of more than US$8 billion (Dh29.38bn) from the highs of last year. Altogether, total deals for the region in the first half of this year amounted to only $1.17bn.
The collapse is a particular blow for the region's banks, for which acting as M&A advisers was once a highly lucrative market. The number of deals on the table has fallen from 56 in the first half of last year to 22 so far this year, while the average value of deals has tumbled by two thirds, from $153 million to $53m. M&A data is hardly a bellwether for the condition of an economy (it tends to lag somewhat behind the curve at both ends of the cycle); it does however give a good picture of the extent to which both liquidity and business confidence has dropped during a downturn.
With more reliable advance indicators such as credit default swap (CDS) spreads seeming now to point toward improved confidence, particularly in Dubai, it is worth looking ahead to predict what the result of the downturn may mean for future M&A activity, and the long-term health of the economy. Given the previous high-octane growth already mentioned, it seems that, rather than acquisition, the most likely immediate result of renewed growth will be a rapid bout of consolidation in the market.
Few if any big corporations have maintained sufficient cash reserves to engage in a significant round of acquisitions, while it makes sense for some of the big beasts to profit from potential back-office synergies by merging their operations. Indeed, this already looks likely to be the pattern, with the announcement on June 28 that Emaar and Dubai Holding's property divisions are preparing for a merger, due to be completed by October.
The deal, which involves Dubai Properties, Sama Dubai and Tatweer, will create a single company with combined assets valued at an estimated Dh194bn, against total debt obligations of Dh13.4bn, according to Emaar. As the name suggests, the companies owned by Dubai Holding are not currently listed, so few financial details are available. Just as the tailing off of M&A activity during the crunch reflected its severity, so the success, and indeed the timetable, of any potential merger between Emaar and Dubai Holding will prove a good indicator for how far the Dubai market in particular has changed over the past 24 months.
A similar deal between the two, involving a land-for-shares agreement, was ditched in 2007 after objections from shareholders. A quick thumbs-up this time from both shareholders and regulators would be an indication of the new realities at play in the market, necessitating both consolidation and improved transparency among the major players. In this respect, the difference between economic theory and practice is not so far removed.
During a boom, each economy sickens on what it feeds on; yet the manner in which it sickens depends on the matter on which it feeds. Previous booms in the West, for example, have often been fed by cheap labour. Over time, a rise in the cost of labour leads to two things: at a micro level it squeezes margins; at a macro level, it creates inflation. The market response to this is improved efficiency and a reallocation of labour.
Those companies best able to achieve these results typically lead economic recovery, and go on to dominate the market. For the UAE however, the boom was to a large extent led by high liquidity, coupled with a light touch, can-do regulatory approach. The result was rapid growth, but of a type which arguably lacked adequate transparency for market signals to properly function, and hence prevent bubbles from forming.
The result has been abrupt: at the macro level, a squeeze on liquidity and a commensurate drop in prices to more sustainable levels, and at the micro level, a difficulty in bridging finances and sustaining new projects. As with other economic crises, the cure is to be found in the poison. We have already seen stage one of the market response: a raft of projects placed indefinitely on hold, coupled with a tightening of regulations.
What we are waiting for now is stage two: the business practice that will lead the economy into recovery, and go on to dominate the market. In fact, this is unlikely to be anything more spectacular than the simple act of business consolidation. Years of high liquidity have left the UAE in particular over-banked and with too many property developers. The future is likely to see fewer of both, but with more streamlined business structures in the ones that remain. Before we get there, though, expect to see fewer acquisitions, and a relative flood of mergers.
Oliver Cornock is the regional editor of the Oxford Business Group
Brief scores:
Liverpool 3
Mane 24', Shaqiri 73', 80'
Manchester United 1
Lingard 33'
Man of the Match: Fabinho (Liverpool)
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last 16, first leg
Tottenham Hotspur v Borussia Dortmund, midnight (Thursday), BeIN Sports
Jewel of the Expo 2020
252 projectors installed on Al Wasl dome
13.6km of steel used in the structure that makes it equal in length to 16 Burj Khalifas
550 tonnes of moulded steel were raised last year to cap the dome
724,000 cubic metres is the space it encloses
Stands taller than the leaning tower of Pisa
Steel trellis dome is one of the largest single structures on site
The size of 16 tennis courts and weighs as much as 500 elephants
Al Wasl means connection in Arabic
World’s largest 360-degree projection surface
Long Shot
Director: Jonathan Levine
Starring: Charlize Theron, Seth Rogan
Four stars
Profile of Foodics
Founders: Ahmad AlZaini and Mosab AlOthmani
Based: Riyadh
Sector: Software
Employees: 150
Amount raised: $8m through seed and Series A - Series B raise ongoing
Funders: Raed Advanced Investment Co, Al-Riyadh Al Walid Investment Co, 500 Falcons, SWM Investment, AlShoaibah SPV, Faith Capital, Technology Investments Co, Savour Holding, Future Resources, Derayah Custody Co.
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Healthcare spending to double to $2.2 trillion rupees
Launched a 641billion-rupee federal health scheme
Allotted 200 billion rupees for the recapitalisation of state-run banks
Around 1.75 trillion rupees allotted for privatisation and stake sales in state-owned assets
MATCH INFO
Europa League final
Who: Marseille v Atletico Madrid
Where: Parc OL, Lyon, France
When: Wednesday, 10.45pm kick off (UAE)
TV: BeIN Sports
Nancy 9 (Hassa Beek)
Nancy Ajram
(In2Musica)
The biog
Hobby: "It is not really a hobby but I am very curious person. I love reading and spend hours on research."
Favourite author: Malcom Gladwell
Favourite travel destination: "Antigua in the Caribbean because I have emotional attachment to it. It is where I got married."
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
The Sheikh Zayed Future Energy Prize
This year’s winners of the US$4 million Sheikh Zayed Future Energy Prize will be recognised and rewarded in Abu Dhabi on January 15 as part of Abu Dhabi Sustainable Week, which runs in the capital from January 13 to 20.
From solutions to life-changing technologies, the aim is to discover innovative breakthroughs to create a new and sustainable energy future.
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE - India ties
The UAE is India’s third-largest trade partner after the US and China
Annual bilateral trade between India and the UAE has crossed US$ 60 billion
The UAE is the fourth-largest exporter of crude oil for India
Indians comprise the largest community with 3.3 million residents in the UAE
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi first visited the UAE in August 2015
His visit on August 23-24 will be the third in four years
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, visited India in February 2016
Sheikh Mohamed was the chief guest at India’s Republic Day celebrations in January 2017
Modi will visit Bahrain on August 24-25
RESULTS
Mumbai Indians 181-4 (20 ovs)
Kolkata Knight Riders 168-6 (20ovs)
Mumbai won by 13 runs
Rajasthan Royals 152-9 (20 ovs)
Kings XI Punjab 155-4 (18.4 ovs)
Kings XI Punjab won by 6 wickets
The details
Heard It in a Past Life
Maggie Rogers
(Capital Records)
3/5
Company%20Profile
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RESULT
Manchester United 2 Burnley 2
Man United: Lingard (53', 90' 1)
Burnley: Barnes (3'), Defour (36')
Man of the Match: Jesse Lingard (Manchester United)
MATCH DETAILS
Liverpool 2
Wijnaldum (14), Oxlade-Chamberlain (52)
Genk 1
Samatta (40)
Klopp at the Kop
Matches 68; Wins 35; Draws 19; Losses 14; Goals For 133; Goals Against 82
- Eighth place in Premier League in 2015/16
- Runners-up in Europa League in 2016
- Runners-up in League Cup in 2016
- Fourth place in Premier League in 2016/17
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
The%20Boy%20and%20the%20Heron
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If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Selected fixtures
All times UAE
Wednesday
Poland v Portugal 10.45pm
Russia v Sweden 10.45pm
Friday
Belgium v Switzerland 10.45pm
Croatia v England 10.45pm
Saturday
Netherlands v Germany 10.45pm
Rep of Ireland v Denmark 10.45pm
Sunday
Poland v Italy 10.45pm
Monday
Spain v England 10.45pm
Tuesday
France v Germany 10.45pm
Rep of Ireland v Wales 10.45pm
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
Schedule:
Friday, January 12: Six fourball matches
Saturday, January 13: Six foursome (alternate shot) matches
Sunday, January 14: 12 singles
Details
Through Her Lens: The stories behind the photography of Eva Sereny
Forewords by Jacqueline Bisset and Charlotte Rampling, ACC Art Books
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 1 (Rashford 36')
Liverpool 1 (Lallana 84')
Man of the match: Marcus Rashford (Manchester United)
THE BIO
Favourite holiday destination: Whenever I have any free time I always go back to see my family in Caltra, Galway, it’s the only place I can properly relax.
Favourite film: The Way, starring Martin Sheen. It’s about the Camino de Santiago walk from France to Spain.
Personal motto: If something’s meant for you it won’t pass you by.
Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
FIGHT%20CARD
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Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
One in four Americans don't plan to retire
Nearly a quarter of Americans say they never plan to retire, according to a poll that suggests a disconnection between individuals' retirement plans and the realities of ageing in the workforce.
Experts say illness, injury, layoffs and caregiving responsibilities often force older workers to leave their jobs sooner than they'd like.
According to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Centre for Public Affairs Research, 23 per cent of workers, including nearly two in 10 of those over 50, don't expect to stop working. Roughly another quarter of Americans say they will continue working beyond their 65th birthday.
According to government data, about one in five people 65 and older was working or actively looking for a job in June. The study surveyed 1,423 adults in February this year.
For many, money has a lot to do with the decision to keep working.
"The average retirement age that we see in the data has gone up a little bit, but it hasn't gone up that much," says Anqi Chen, assistant director of savings research at the Centre for Retirement Research at Boston College. "So people have to live in retirement much longer, and they may not have enough assets to support themselves in retirement."
When asked how financially comfortable they feel about retirement, 14 per cent of Americans under the age of 50 and 29 per cent over 50 say they feel extremely or very prepared, according to the poll. About another four in 10 older adults say they do feel somewhat prepared, while just about one-third feel unprepared.
"One of the things about thinking about never retiring is that you didn't save a whole lot of money," says Ronni Bennett, 78, who was pushed out of her job as a New York City-based website editor at 63.
She searched for work in the immediate aftermath of her layoff, a process she describes as akin to "banging my head against a wall." Finding Manhattan too expensive without a steady stream of income, she eventually moved to Portland, Maine. A few years later, she moved again, to Lake Oswego, Oregon. "Sometimes I fantasise that if I win the lottery, I'd go back to New York," says Ms Bennett.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Juliet, Naked
Dir: Jesse Peretz
Starring: Chris O'Dowd, Rose Byrne, Ethan Hawke
Two stars
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Tottenham v Ajax, Tuesday, 11pm (UAE).
Second leg
Ajax v Tottenham, Wednesday, May 8, 11pm
Games on BeIN Sports
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
UAE v IRELAND
All matches start at 10am, and will be played in Abu Dhabi
1st ODI, Friday, January 8
2nd ODI, Sunday, January 10
3rd ODI, Tuesday, January 12
4th ODI, Thursday, January 14
THE BIO
Mr Al Qassimi is 37 and lives in Dubai
He is a keen drummer and loves gardening
His favourite way to unwind is spending time with his two children and cooking
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%202-litre%20direct%20injection%20turbo%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%207-speed%20automatic%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20261hp%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20400Nm%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20From%20Dh134%2C999%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A Dog's Journey
Directed by: Gail Mancuso
Starring: Dennis Quaid, Josh Gad, Marg Helgenberger, Betty Gilpin, Kathryn Prescott
3 out of 5 stars
Results:
5pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic (PA) Prestige Dh 110,000 1.400m | Winner: AF Mouthirah, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic (PA) Prestige Dh 110,000 1,400m | Winner: AF Saab, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 1,600m | Winner: Majd Al Gharbia, Saif Al Balushi, Ridha ben Attia
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Championship (PA) Listed Dh 180,000 1,600m | Winner: RB Money To Burn, Pat Cosgrave, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Handicap Dh 70,000 2,200m | Winner: AF Kafu, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 100,000 2,400m | Winner: Brass Ring, Fabrice Veron, Ismail Mohammed
Specs
Price, base: Dhs850,000
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 591bhp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.3L / 100km
Royal Birkdale Golf Course
Location: Southport, Merseyside, England
Established: 1889
Type: Private
Total holes: 18
Company%20Profile
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Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE jiu-jitsu squad
Men: Hamad Nawad and Khalid Al Balushi (56kg), Omar Al Fadhli and Saeed Al Mazroui (62kg), Taleb Al Kirbi and Humaid Al Kaabi (69kg), Mohammed Al Qubaisi and Saud Al Hammadi (70kg), Khalfan Belhol and Mohammad Haitham Radhi (85kg), Faisal Al Ketbi and Zayed Al Kaabi (94kg)
Women: Wadima Al Yafei and Mahra Al Hanaei (49kg), Bashayer Al Matrooshi and Hessa Al Shamsi (62kg)
Company%20profile
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HOSTS
T20 WORLD CUP
2024: US and West Indies; 2026: India and Sri Lanka; 2028: Australia and New Zealand; 2030: England, Ireland and Scotland
ODI WORLD CUP
2027: South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia; 2031: India and
Bangladesh
CHAMPIONS TROPHY
2025: Pakistan; 2029: India
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Manchester City transfers:
OUTS
Pablo Zabaleta, Bacary Sagna, Gael Clichy, Willy Caballero and Jesus Navas (all released)
INS
Ederson (Benfica) £34.7m, Bernardo Silva (Monaco) £43m
ON THEIR WAY OUT?
Joe Hart, Eliaquim Mangala, Samir Nasri, Wilfried Bony, Fabian Delph, Nolito and Kelechi Iheanacho
ON THEIR WAY IN?
Dani Alves (Juventus), Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal)
