Sir Andrew Large, a former deputy governor of the Bank of England, says there is some uncertainty about whether the US Federal Reserve's second round of quantitative easing since the global financial crisis - dubbed QE2 - will succeed in bolstering economic growth, as well as combating deflation and high levels of unemployment in the US.
While it is also unclear what kind of economic impact QE2 will have domestically, Sir Andrew has expressed concern that QE2 might instead result in significant monetary outflows from the US to emerging markets, which have already seen "very big increases in foreign exchange reserves".
On November 3, the Fed announced it would buy US$600 billion (Dh2.2 trillion) of longer-term Treasury securities in the open market over the following eight months. The US central bank is striving to fulfil its dual primary mandates of achieving maximum sustainable employment and its informal price stability inflation target of between 1.75 per cent and 2 per cent.
US unemployment remains persistently high, reaching 9.8 per cent last month, while inflation is at the slowest pace on record at less than 1 per cent.
That is despite the Fed's earlier injection of $1.7tn into the global financial system to avert a worldwide economic depression.
Furthermore, banks remain unwilling to lend despite sitting on reserves of more than $1tn, capitalised by the Fed's purchases of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities between December 2008 and March this year.
While conceding that the Fed's primary mandates necessitate its quantitative easing actions, Sir Andrew nonetheless has "some reservations" about them.
Asked whether inflation was a real concern, he suggested the idea that a little bit of inflation to reduce the US debt burden "might well be a twinkle in a few policymakers' eyes".
"Will quantitative easing lead to inflation? The answer is maybe," Sir Andrew told INSEAD Knowledge in Singapore last month.
"On the other hand, I don't think one should overlook the fact that the Fed can easily reverse the policy stance if they think that inflationary expectations are rising too quickly.
"So I don't think that just because they have done this it means that inflation's an inevitability."
However, Sir Andrew believes Germany is right to "point out the dangers" of printing money and pumping it into the economy, bearing in mind the hyperinflation experienced in the Weimar Republic after the First World War.
"It's seared in the German consciousness and I think one respects that," Sir Andrew said.
"I do think that the dangers are perhaps slightly overstated, given the possibility the Americans have to withdraw the stance they are taking."
The dollar has been weakening against a basket of currencies since June, fuelling talk of a currency war.
Limiting his comments to the recriminations between the US and China about currency manipulation, Sir Andrew saw good reasons in the US wanting to devalue the dollar, as well in China delaying the rise of its currency.
"The Americans obviously would like to see the [yuan] significantly stronger. It's all about jobs in the states, effectively," he said.
"The Chinese, on the other hand, are concerned in two senses. One, I think they themselves are the recipient of a large amount of the liquidity that's been created, but the other is that if they were to revalue the [yuan] too rapidly, it could give rise to social unrest in China itself, and they clearly are very worried about that.
"So you have two points of view here, and it's very difficult to know how to reconcile, and to a large extent I think it is a matter of timing. There's little doubt that the Chinese can see the validity of the argument that over time the [yuan] should adjust. Equally, they need time to make sure that the social cohesion can hold together."
Is the time right then for a return to linking currencies to a gold standard? In an article in the Financial Times last month, Robert Zoellick, the president of the World Bank, called for a return to a modified gold standard, a system in which the monetary unit is a fixed weight of gold.
"I don't know the answer to that," Sir Andrew said, adding he doubted that many people, including Mr Zoellick, thought there would be a return to a gold standard. Another scenario, Sir Andrew said, was that gold could be included in a basket of currencies, which would be "a less extreme solution".
Even so, he has "significant doubts" about it gaining international acceptance.
business@thenational.ae
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
- Grade 9 = above an A*
- Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
- Grade 7 = grade A
- Grade 6 = just above a grade B
- Grade 5 = between grades B and C
- Grade 4 = grade C
- Grade 3 = between grades D and E
- Grade 2 = between grades E and F
- Grade 1 = between grades F and G
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPAD%20PRO%20(12.9%22%2C%202022)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012.9-inch%20Liquid%20Retina%20XDR%2C%202%2C732%20x%202%2C048%2C%20264ppi%2C%20wide%20colour%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20ProMotion%2C%201%2C600%20nits%20max%2C%20Apple%20Pencil%20hover%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EChip%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20M2%2C%208-core%20CPU%2C%2010-core%20GPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Storage%20%E2%80%93%20128GB%2F256GB%2F512GB%20%2F%201TB%2F2TB%3B%20RAM%20%E2%80%93%208GB%2F16GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20iPadOS%2016%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%2012MP%20wide%20(f%2F1.8)%20%2B%2010MP%20ultra-wide%20(f%2F2.4)%2C%202x%20optical%2F5x%20digital%2C%20Smart%20HDR%204%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20ProRes%204K%20%40%2030fps%2C%204K%20%40%2024%2F25%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20full%20HD%20%40%2025%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20slo-mo%20%40%20120%2F240fps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20TrueDepth%2012MP%20ultra-wide%20(f%2F2.4)%2C%202x%2C%20Smart%20HDR%204%2C%20Centre%20Stage%2C%20Portrait%2C%20Animoji%2C%20Memoji%3B%20full%20HD%20%40%2025%2F30%2F60fps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAudio%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Four-speaker%20stereo%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBiometrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Face%20ID%2C%20Touch%20ID%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20USB-C%2C%20smart%20connector%20(for%20folio%2Fkeyboard)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Up%20to%2010%20hours%20on%20Wi-Fi%3B%20up%20to%20nine%20hours%20on%20cellular%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinish%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Silver%2C%20space%20grey%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20iPad%2C%20USB-C-to-USB-C%20cable%2C%2020-watt%20power%20adapter%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20WiFi%20%E2%80%93%20Dh4%2C599%20(128GB)%20%2F%20Dh4%2C999%20(256GB)%20%2F%20Dh5%2C799%20(512GB)%20%2F%20Dh7%2C399%20(1TB)%20%2F%20Dh8%2C999%20(2TB)%3B%20cellular%20%E2%80%93%20Dh5%2C199%20%2F%20Dh5%2C599%20%2F%20Dh6%2C399%20%2F%20Dh7%2C999%20%2F%20Dh9%2C599%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters
The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.
Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.
A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.
The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.
The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.
Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.
Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment
But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5
The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz GLA
Price, base / as tested Dh150,900 / Dh173,600
Engine 2.0L inline four-cylinder
Transmission Seven-speed automatic
Power 211hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 350Nm @ 1,200rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.4L / 100km
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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Kill%20
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The Matrix Resurrections
Director: Lana Wachowski
Stars: Keanu Reeves, Carrie-Anne Moss, Jessica Henwick
Rating:****
IF YOU GO
The flights
FlyDubai flies direct from Dubai to Skopje in five hours from Dh1,314 return including taxes. Hourly buses from Skopje to Ohrid take three hours.
The tours
English-speaking guided tours of Ohrid town and the surrounding area are organised by Cultura 365; these cost €90 (Dh386) for a one-day trip including driver and guide and €100 a day (Dh429) for two people.
The hotels
Villa St Sofija in the old town of Ohrid, twin room from $54 (Dh198) a night.
St Naum Monastery, on the lake 30km south of Ohrid town, has updated its pilgrims' quarters into a modern 3-star hotel, with rooms overlooking the monastery courtyard and lake. Double room from $60 (Dh 220) a night.
STAGE 4 RESULTS
1 Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep - 4:51:51
2 David Dekker (NED) Team Jumbo-Visma
3 Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal
4 Elia Viviani (ITA) Cofidis
5 Matteo Moschetti (ITA) Trek-Segafredo
General Classification
1 Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates - 12:50:21
2 Adam Yates (GBR) Teamn Ineos Grenadiers - 0:00:43
3 Joao Almeida (POR) Deceuninck-QuickStep - 0:01:03
4 Chris Harper (AUS) Jumbo-Visma - 0:01:43
5 Neilson Powless (USA) EF Education-Nippo - 0:01:45
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The biog
First Job: Abu Dhabi Department of Petroleum in 1974
Current role: Chairperson of Al Maskari Holding since 2008
Career high: Regularly cited on Forbes list of 100 most powerful Arab Businesswomen
Achievement: Helped establish Al Maskari Medical Centre in 1969 in Abu Dhabi’s Western Region
Future plan: Will now concentrate on her charitable work
Game Of Thrones Season Seven: A Bluffers Guide
Want to sound on message about the biggest show on television without actually watching it? Best not to get locked into the labyrinthine tales of revenge and royalty: as Isaac Hempstead Wright put it, all you really need to know from now on is that there’s going to be a huge fight between humans and the armies of undead White Walkers.
The season ended with a dragon captured by the Night King blowing apart the huge wall of ice that separates the human world from its less appealing counterpart. Not that some of the humans in Westeros have been particularly appealing, either.
Anyway, the White Walkers are now free to cause any kind of havoc they wish, and as Liam Cunningham told us: “Westeros may be zombie land after the Night King has finished.” If the various human factions don’t put aside their differences in season 8, we could be looking at The Walking Dead: The Medieval Years.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The five stages of early child’s play
From Dubai-based clinical psychologist Daniella Salazar:
1. Solitary Play: This is where Infants and toddlers start to play on their own without seeming to notice the people around them. This is the beginning of play.
2. Onlooker play: This occurs where the toddler enjoys watching other people play. There doesn’t necessarily need to be any effort to begin play. They are learning how to imitate behaviours from others. This type of play may also appear in children who are more shy and introverted.
3. Parallel Play: This generally starts when children begin playing side-by-side without any interaction. Even though they aren’t physically interacting they are paying attention to each other. This is the beginning of the desire to be with other children.
4. Associative Play: At around age four or five, children become more interested in each other than in toys and begin to interact more. In this stage children start asking questions and talking about the different activities they are engaging in. They realise they have similar goals in play such as building a tower or playing with cars.
5. Social Play: In this stage children are starting to socialise more. They begin to share ideas and follow certain rules in a game. They slowly learn the definition of teamwork. They get to engage in basic social skills and interests begin to lead social interactions.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Afghanistan Premier League - at a glance
Venue: Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Fixtures:
Tue, Oct 16, 8pm: Kandahar Knights v Kabul Zwanan; Wed, Oct 17, 4pm: Balkh Legends v Nangarhar Leopards; 8pm: Kandahar Knights v Paktia Panthers; Thu, Oct 18, 4pm: Balkh Legends v Kandahar Knights; 8pm: Kabul Zwanan v Paktia Panthers; Fri, Oct 19, 8pm: First semi-final; Sat, Oct 20, 8pm: Second semi-final; Sun, Oct 21, 8pm: final
Table:
1. Balkh Legends 6 5 1 10
2. Paktia Panthers 6 4 2 8
3. Kabul Zwanan 6 3 3 6
4. Nagarhar Leopards 7 2 5 4
5. Kandahar Knights 5 1 4 2
The 12 breakaway clubs
England
Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur
Italy
AC Milan, Inter Milan, Juventus
Spain
Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Real Madrid
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