The most powerful woman in the world now is arguably a former economics professor past retirement age who this month became chair of the Federal Reserve.
Step forward Janet Yellen, successor to Ben Bernanke, the man now credited with saving the world from the global financial crisis a little over five years ago.
Not that this legacy is exactly secure. Larry Summers, who some feel ought to have replaced Mr Bernanke, told the World Economic Forum in Davos last month that the US economic recovery was “not strong enough”. These are words that could come back to haunt the writers of Mr Bernanke’s hagiographies.
Last May he first hinted that his QE money printing was going to be reduced gradually. Interest rates on US treasuries have almost doubled since then and globally interest rates have been on the up and up. Recently the Fed confirmed that the formerly $85 billion QE programme will be reduced by $10bn a month until it is closed down this October.
In global financial markets it is always the weakest link that breaks first. In the case of QE, money-printing trillions of dollars has found its way into emerging markets in search of higher investment returns. For when you earn almost nothing on US dollar deposits, the higher returns available in emerging markets look irresistible.
That inflow of money also brought interest paid on emerging market bonds lower and it fuelled up these economies in a self-fulfilling prophecy. However, what happens when you turn off this rocket fuel? The lights have started to go out in Buenos Aires, Brasilia, Mumbai, Moscow, Istanbul and Jakarta.
Across the emerging markets there is now currency devaluation after currency devaluation. Turkey doubled its interest rates late last month. Higher interest rates depress business activity. Devaluation is good for exports but bad for inflation. Overinflated local stock markets have come crashing down.
But the problem is not just confined to these countries. The world’s second largest economy is getting closer and closer to a serious credit event. Its $24 trillion credit system is bigger than the banking systems of the US and Japan combined.
China printed money equivalent to half its GDP in 2009 in the biggest monetary expansion in history. Money has been lost on an epic scale through investments in uneconomic prestige projects. If you are looking for an equivalent to Lehman Brothers and the subprime crisis of 2008 that brought us the last global economic crisis then “Made in China” is stamped on it.
At the same time Japan has embarked on a money-printing experiment of its own known popularly as “Abenomics” after its prime minister. For good measure it is actually the biggest such programme per capita in the world, spending more than twice the amount of Mr Bernanke’s QE per person.
One of its key aims is to weaken the yen to make Japanese exports competitive. Just a shame then that the crisis in the emerging markets has boosted the yen as a safe haven. If the Chinese economy blows up it will certainly take Japan down with it.
So welcome to your new office, Mrs Yellen. You’re likely to face some of the greatest challenges ever in the history of central banking. Will you be up to the task? Is the US economy “strong enough” to meet these headwinds?
Wall Street has been helpful so far. Instead of crashing on the news of higher interest rates equities roared higher with an exit from bonds. It’s what Austrian economists call a “crack-up boom”, a final spike in asset prices into a massive bubble. Technical chartists say they have seen nothing like this since 1929 and the Wall Street Crash.
What will Mrs Yellen do if a correction gets out of hand? Her past form is very much as a money printer. She once argued in the last crisis for negative interest rates. So once the creative destruction of a correction is done the Fed is likely to revive QE money printing with a vengeance.
Except that QE suffers from something called the law of diminishing marginal returns. In short, the more you do it the less effective it becomes. What will Mrs Yellen do then? We can only hope she has an answer.
Peter Cooper is editor of arabianmoney.net
If you go
- The nearest international airport to the start of the Chuysky Trakt is in Novosibirsk. Emirates (www.emirates.com) offer codeshare flights with S7 Airlines (www.s7.ru) via Moscow for US$5,300 (Dh19,467) return including taxes. Cheaper flights are available on Flydubai and Air Astana or Aeroflot combination, flying via Astana in Kazakhstan or Moscow. Economy class tickets are available for US$650 (Dh2,400).
- The Double Tree by Hilton in Novosibirsk ( 7 383 2230100,) has double rooms from US$60 (Dh220). You can rent cabins at camp grounds or rooms in guesthouses in the towns for around US$25 (Dh90).
- The transport Minibuses run along the Chuysky Trakt but if you want to stop for sightseeing, hire a taxi from Gorno-Altaisk for about US$100 (Dh360) a day. Take a Russian phrasebook or download a translation app. Tour companies such as Altair-Tour ( 7 383 2125115 ) offer hiking and adventure packages.
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Friday (UAE kick-off times)
Real Sociedad v Leganes (midnight)
Saturday
Alaves v Real Valladolid (4pm)
Valencia v Granada (7pm)
Eibar v Real Madrid (9.30pm)
Barcelona v Celta Vigo (midnight)
Sunday
Real Mallorca v Villarreal (3pm)
Athletic Bilbao v Levante (5pm)
Atletico Madrid v Espanyol (7pm)
Getafe v Osasuna (9.30pm)
Real Betis v Sevilla (midnight)
Scores
Day 2
New Zealand 153 & 56-1
Pakistan 227
New Zealand trail by 18 runs with nine wickets remaining
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATHC INFO
England 19 (Try: Tuilagi; Cons: Farrell; Pens: Ford (4)
New Zealand 7 (Try: Savea; Con: Mo'unga)
ENGLAND SQUAD
Team: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Ben Te'o, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Jonny May, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs, 1 Mako Vunipola, 2 Dylan Hartley, 3 Dan Cole, 4 Joe Launchbury, 5 Maro Itoje, 6 Courtney Lawes, 7 Chris Robshaw, 8 Sam Simmonds
Replacements 16 Jamie George, 17 Alec Hepburn, 18 Harry Williams, 19 George Kruis, 20 Sam Underhill, 21 Danny Care, 22 Jonathan Joseph, 23 Jack Nowell
EMERGENCY PHONE NUMBERS
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
MATCH INFO
Rajasthan Royals 158-8 (20 ovs)
Kings XI Punjab 143/7 (20 ovs)
Rajasthan Royals won by 15 runs
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
Watch live
The National will broadcast live from the IMF on Friday October 13 at 7pm UAE time (3pm GMT) as our Editor-in-Chief Mina Al-Oraibi moderates a panel on how technology can help growth in MENA.
You can find out more here
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
England squads for Test and T20 series against New Zealand
Test squad: Joe Root (capt), Jofra Archer, Stuart Broad, Rory Burns, Jos Buttler, Zak Crawley, Sam Curran, Joe Denly, Jack Leach, Saqib Mahmood, Matthew Parkinson, Ollie Pope, Dominic Sibley, Ben Stokes, Chris Woakes
T20 squad: Eoin Morgan (capt), Jonny Bairstow, Tom Banton, Sam Billings, Pat Brown, Sam Curran, Tom Curran, Joe Denly, Lewis Gregory, Chris Jordan, Saqib Mahmood, Dawid Malan, Matt Parkinson, Adil Rashid, James Vince
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Barcelona v Liverpool, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE).
Second leg
Liverpool v Barcelona, Tuesday, May 7, 11pm
Games on BeIN Sports
SERIES INFO
Cricket World Cup League Two
Nepal, Oman, United States tri-series
Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu
Fixtures
Wednesday February 5, Oman v Nepal
Thursday, February 6, Oman v United States
Saturday, February 8, United States v Nepal
Sunday, February 9, Oman v Nepal
Tuesday, February 11, Oman v United States
Wednesday, February 12, United States v Nepal
Table
The top three sides advance to the 2022 World Cup Qualifier.
The bottom four sides are relegated to the 2022 World Cup playoff
1 United States 8 6 2 0 0 12 0.412
2 Scotland 8 4 3 0 1 9 0.139
3 Namibia 7 4 3 0 0 8 0.008
4 Oman 6 4 2 0 0 8 -0.139
5 UAE 7 3 3 0 1 7 -0.004
6 Nepal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 PNG 8 0 8 0 0 0 -0.458
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
THE SPECS
Engine: 4.4-litre V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 523hp
Torque: 750Nm
Price: Dh469,000
Landfill in numbers
• Landfill gas is composed of 50 per cent methane
• Methane is 28 times more harmful than Co2 in terms of global warming
• 11 million total tonnes of waste are being generated annually in Abu Dhabi
• 18,000 tonnes per year of hazardous and medical waste is produced in Abu Dhabi emirate per year
• 20,000 litres of cooking oil produced in Abu Dhabi’s cafeterias and restaurants every day is thrown away
• 50 per cent of Abu Dhabi’s waste is from construction and demolition
Intercontinental Cup
Namibia v UAE Saturday Sep 16-Tuesday Sep 19
Table 1 Ireland, 89 points; 2 Afghanistan, 81; 3 Netherlands, 52; 4 Papua New Guinea, 40; 5 Hong Kong, 39; 6 Scotland, 37; 7 UAE, 27; 8 Namibia, 27