The shortfall between power generation and demand in Pakistan is widening.
The shortfall between power generation and demand in Pakistan is widening.

The price of Pakistan's generation shortfall



In Pakistan, the days of doing business by candlelight are far from over. Power cuts in many areas of the country last as long as 16 hours every day, and consumers will be paying about 45 per cent more for electricity by the end of this month compared with last year as government subsidies are withdrawn. Ending the power subsidy might help the country get US$6 billion (Dh22.03bn) of loans from the IMF, but it will deeply hurt the people of Pakistan.

The country's demand for electricity doubles about every 10 years, which implies that ensuring enough supply is essential for the economy to stay afloat, at least in theory. With a population of more than 170 million, this South Asian nuclear-armed nation is the world's sixth-largest consumer market by population and a place of interest for many international investors. With its government offering incentives such as 100 per cent ownership of businesses by foreigners, tax holidays, low-cost land, specialised industrial zones and repatriation of funds, one would think there would be investor interest. But watching the potential gold mine that is Pakistan from a distance makes more sense than committing funds to its industrial or agricultural sectors: factories need power to function, and foreign investors are reluctant to compete with the rising population of this country for a resource as precious as electricity.

Pakistan's economy has threatened to go under a number of times in the past decade or so - not entirely on account of power shortage - but if an economic collapse were to occur, power shortages would be a major contributor. The country's shortfall between power generation and demand is widening with every passing year. It is a peculiar truth for a country with major coal reserves. The estimated coal deposits at Thar in the southern province of Sindh are massive: as much as 175 billion tonnes. However, since the discovery almost 18 years ago, Pakistan has managed to fully explore only six blocks, spanning 488 out of a total 9,100 square kilometres of the Thar reserve. The drill-proven reserves, according to Pakistani government data, are 3.7 billion tonnes.

The data show that Pakistan has so far managed to explore with the help of international partners only enough to generate 63,390 megawatts of electricity for the next 30 years. With two more blocks under exploration, experts say proven reserves are enough for Pakistan's power generation needs for the next 100 years. The highly bureaucratic structure of governance and practically empty coffers of the state, all wrapped up in red tape, are the reasons that exploration in Thar has moved at a snail's pace. The reluctance of foreign investors to come to the government's rescue in the current dire security situation is also understandable.

"It's true we can safely generate 40,000 megawatts for over 100 years with proven coal reserves. But for that to happen, a lot in Pakistan needs to change, including political interference," says Rashid Mehr, the country head in Pakistan for Moody International, one of the largest global project risk advisory companies in the oil and gas and natural resources exploration sector. Textile and agriculture, Pakistan's main sources of foreign exchange, are hamstrung due to power shortages, and industry generally is slowly being wiped by power cuts.

"For an economy to operate at 100 per cent, you require 120 per cent of required power. You need 100 per cent to support the economy and an additional 20 per cent to fuel the growth," Mr Mehr says. According to government data, the demand for power has risen 29 per cent from 18,883mw in 2007 to 24,474mw this year, and it is expected to rise almost 50 per cent to 36,217mw by 2015. The peak demand projection would require Pakistan to generate 113,659mw to satisfy both commercial and domestic requirements by 2030.

The installed capacity, on the other hand, has risen from almost 9,000mw in 1991 - just a year before Pakistan discovered the Thar coal reserves - to 19,552mw at the end of 2004, according to data on Pakistan's Board of Investment website. Progress since then has been painfully slow. Pakistan's federal secretary of water and power, Shahid Rafi, in a presentation last year to the Friends of Democratic Pakistan (FoDP) at a conference in Abu Dhabi, said Pakistan's power generation capacity stood at 20,231mw, which implied that the country had added only about 700mw of capacity since the end of 2004.

Already, there is a supply shortfall of about 4,500mw, various government figures show. But Mr Mehr argues that the situation is even worse than the government data indicates. His work with some of the international companies involved in natural resources exploration in Pakistan paints an even graver picture. "I have my reservations about the shortages and demand projection figures. They [the government] are targeting to produce about 30,000mw by 2015, which is practically impossible," he says. "I don't suppose foreign investors are going to come to Pakistan in the given circumstances and help government achieve this target. Also, the major hydro projects are not going to come on stream before 2016."

The reluctance of foreign investors to enter the energy sector, or for that matter any sector of the economy, is evident from the fact that Pakistan has not closed even a single privatisation deal in the past 18 months. Up for grabs are about 30 small hydro power projects and one large project that could require billions of dollars of investments. Not one of these projects has persuaded investors to put down any money. Failing to generate interest from a wider market, Pakistan has lately been wooing friendly nations to come to its rescue. The FoDP is one forum in which Pakistan has been voicing appeals for aid and investments in its economy, which has taken a battering because of the country's front-line position in the war on terrorism.

Mr Rafi's presentation to representatives of the FoDP indicated that the country would require an investment of about $7.2bn in Thar mine-mouth power plant projects to generate 1,000mw by 2015 from four available mining blocks. So far, the provincial government has managed to sign only one agreement with a local firm to set up a small power plant in the Thar area. The 16,000mw additional capacity that Pakistan intends to generate through hydro projects would need $26bn of investments, while $30bn of investments is needed to rehabilitate and reinforce the power transmission and distribution systems.

The other options for Pakistan are to invest in nuclear power production or to start importing power from neighbouring countries. The country is studying the feasibility of importing 1,000mw of power each from Tajikistan and Iran. Mr Mehr says the Pakistani government owes about $1bn to independent power producers who mainly use oil to generate electricity. The producers have reduced power generation as they want their long-standing receivables cleared.

"One reason for withdrawing government subsidies for power is that the government wants to pay the power producers and ask them to increase power generation," Mr Mehr says. The fact remains that Pakistan cannot afford to continue producing power by burning oil. "International oil prices are high and it's expensive for a country like Pakistan. They will have to invest in cheaper power production if the economy is to survive and grow," he says.

Currently, 80 per cent of Pakistan's electricity is generated from oil and natural gas, while hydro projects account for 11 per cent. Only 7 per cent of power is obtained from coal, while 1 per cent is contributed by the country's one small nuclear power plant. @Email:skhan@thenational.ae

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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Results

1.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m

Winner Al Suhooj, Saif Al Balushi (jockey), Khalifa Al Neyadi (trainer)

2pm Handicap (TB) 68,000 (D) 1,950m

Winner Miracle Maker, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer

2.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,600m

Winner Mazagran, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar

3pm Handicap (TB) Dh84,000 (D) 1,800m

Winner Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer

3.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh76,000 (D) 1,400m

Winner Alla Mahlak, Adrie de Vries, Rashed Bouresly

4pm Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,200m

Winner Hurry Up, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer

4.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh68,000 (D) 1,200m

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School counsellors on mental well-being

Schools counsellors in Abu Dhabi have put a number of provisions in place to help support pupils returning to the classroom next week.

Many children will resume in-person lessons for the first time in 10 months and parents previously raised concerns about the long-term effects of distance learning.

Schools leaders and counsellors said extra support will be offered to anyone that needs it. Additionally, heads of years will be on hand to offer advice or coping mechanisms to ease any concerns.

“Anxiety this time round has really spiralled, more so than from the first lockdown at the beginning of the pandemic,” said Priya Mitchell, counsellor at The British School Al Khubairat in Abu Dhabi.

“Some have got used to being at home don’t want to go back, while others are desperate to get back.

“We have seen an increase in depressive symptoms, especially with older pupils, and self-harm is starting younger.

“It is worrying and has taught us how important it is that we prioritise mental well-being.”

Ms Mitchell said she was liaising more with heads of year so they can support and offer advice to pupils if the demand is there.

The school will also carry out mental well-being checks so they can pick up on any behavioural patterns and put interventions in place to help pupils.

At Raha International School, the well-being team has provided parents with assessment surveys to see how they can support students at home to transition back to school.

“They have created a Well-being Resource Bank that parents have access to on information on various domains of mental health for students and families,” a team member said.

“Our pastoral team have been working with students to help ease the transition and reduce anxiety that [pupils] may experience after some have been nearly a year off campus.

"Special secondary tutorial classes have also focused on preparing students for their return; going over new guidelines, expectations and daily schedules.”

TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:

- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools

- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say

- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance

- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs

- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills

- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month

- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues

UAE SQUAD

Ali Khaseif, Mohammed Al Shamsi, Fahad Al Dhanhani, Khalid Essa, Bandar Al Ahbabi, Salem Rashid, Shaheen Abdulrahman, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Mohammed Al Attas, Walid Abbas, Hassan Al Mahrami, Mahmoud Khamis, Alhassan Saleh, Ali Salmeen, Yahia Nader, Abdullah Ramadan, Majed Hassan, Abdullah Al Naqbi, Fabio De Lima, Khalil Al Hammadi, Khalfan Mubarak, Tahnoun Al Zaabi, Muhammed Jumah, Yahya Al Ghassani, Caio Canedo, Ali Mabkhout, Sebastian Tagliabue, Zayed Al Ameri

RACE CARD

6.30pm: Handicap (TB) $68,000 (Dirt) 1,600m

7.05pm: Meydan Sprint – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (Turf) 1,000m

7.40pm: Curlin Stakes – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (D) 2,200m

8.15pm: UAE Oaks – Group 3 (TB) $125,000 (D) 1,900m

8.50pm: Zabeel Mile – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,600m

9.25pm: Balanchine – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,800m

10pm: Al Shindagha Sprint – Group 3 (TB) $130,000 (D) 1,200m

Results

1. Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) 1hr 32mins 03.897sec

2. Max Verstappen (Red Bull-Honda) at 0.745s

3. Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes) 37.383s

4. Lando Norris (McLaren) 46.466s

5.Sergio Perez (Red Bull-Honda) 52.047s

6. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) 59.090s

7. Daniel Ricciardo (McLaren) 1:06.004

8. Carlos Sainz Jr (Ferrari) 1:07.100

9. Yuki Tsunoda (AlphaTauri-Honda) 1:25.692

10. Lance Stroll (Aston Martin-Mercedes) 1:26.713,

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MATCH INFO

AC Milan v Inter, Sunday, 6pm (UAE), match live on BeIN Sports

What is cyberbullying?

Cyberbullying or online bullying could take many forms such as sending unkind or rude messages to someone, socially isolating people from groups, sharing embarrassing pictures of them, or spreading rumors about them.

Cyberbullying can take place on various platforms such as messages, on social media, on group chats, or games.

Parents should watch out for behavioural changes in their children.

When children are being bullied they they may be feel embarrassed and isolated, so parents should watch out for signs of signs of depression and anxiety

Race card

5pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m; 5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m

6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; 6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m

7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m

7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 (PA) 1,400m

Company%20Profile
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BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES

(All games 4-3pm kick UAE time) Bayern Munich v Augsburg, Borussia Dortmund v Bayer Leverkusen, Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin, Wolfsburg v Mainz , Eintracht Frankfurt v Freiburg, Union Berlin v RB Leipzig, Cologne v Schalke , Werder Bremen v Borussia Monchengladbach, Stuttgart v Arminia Bielefeld

Women’s T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier

ICC Academy, November 22-28

UAE fixtures
Nov 22, v Malaysia
Nov 23, v Hong Kong
Nov 25, v Bhutan
Nov 26, v Kuwait
Nov 28, v Nepal

ICC T20I rankings
14. Nepal
17. UAE
25. Hong Kong
34. Kuwait
35. Malaysia
44. Bhutan 

UAE squad
Chaya Mughal (captain), Natasha Cherriath, Samaira Dharnidharka, Kavisha Egodage, Mahika Gaur, Priyanjali Jain, Suraksha Kotte, Vaishnave Mahesh, Judit Peter, Esha Rohit, Theertha Satish, Chamani Seneviratne, Khushi Sharma, Subha Venkataraman

The Perfect Couple

Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor

Creator: Jenna Lamia

Rating: 3/5

Votes

Total votes: 1.8 million

Ashraf Ghani: 923,592 votes

Abdullah Abdullah: 720,841 votes 

Napoleon
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THE SIXTH SENSE

Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment

Director: M. Night Shyamalan

Rating: 5/5

'Top Gun: Maverick'

Rating: 4/5

 

Directed by: Joseph Kosinski

 

Starring: Tom Cruise, Val Kilmer, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Miles Teller, Glen Powell, Ed Harris

 
The Buckingham Murders

Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu

Director: Hansal Mehta

Rating: 4 / 5

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Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
Director: Venkat Prabhu
Rating: 2/5
WandaVision

Starring: Elizabeth Olsen, Paul Bettany

Directed by: Matt Shakman

Rating: Four stars

Race card

5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m

5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m

6pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-2 Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 2,200m 

6.30pm: Liwa Oaisi Group 2 (PA) Dh300,000 1,400m

7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m

7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 1,600m

The National selections: 5pm: Flit Al Maury, 5.30pm: Sadah, 6pm: RB Seqondtonone, 6.30pm: RB Money To Burn, 7pm: SS Jalmood, 7.30pm: Dalaalaat

The nine articles of the 50-Year Charter

1. Dubai silk road

2.  A geo-economic map for Dubai

3. First virtual commercial city

4. A central education file for every citizen

5. A doctor to every citizen

6. Free economic and creative zones in universities

7. Self-sufficiency in Dubai homes

8. Co-operative companies in various sectors

­9: Annual growth in philanthropy

J%20Street%20Polling%20Results
%3Cp%3E97%25%20of%20Jewish-Americans%20are%20concerned%20about%20the%20rise%20in%20anti-Semitism%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E76%25%20of%20US%20Jewish%20voters%20believe%20Donald%20Trump%20and%20his%20allies%20in%20the%20Republican%20Party%20are%20responsible%20for%20a%20rise%20in%20anti-Semitism%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E74%25%20of%20American%20Jews%20agreed%20that%20%E2%80%9CTrump%20and%20the%20Maga%20movement%20are%20a%20threat%20to%20Jews%20in%20America%22%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat 

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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SPECS
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Emergency phone numbers in the UAE

Estijaba – 8001717 –  number to call to request coronavirus testing

Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111

Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre

Emirates airline – 600555555

Etihad Airways – 600555666

Ambulance – 998

Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989

Director: Goran Hugo Olsson

Rating: 5/5

SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2A)
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Another way to earn air miles

In addition to the Emirates and Etihad programmes, there is the Air Miles Middle East card, which offers members the ability to choose any airline, has no black-out dates and no restrictions on seat availability. Air Miles is linked up to HSBC credit cards and can also be earned through retail partners such as Spinneys, Sharaf DG and The Toy Store.

An Emirates Dubai-London round-trip ticket costs 180,000 miles on the Air Miles website. But customers earn these ‘miles’ at a much faster rate than airline miles. Adidas offers two air miles per Dh1 spent. Air Miles has partnerships with websites as well, so booking.com and agoda.com offer three miles per Dh1 spent.

“If you use your HSBC credit card when shopping at our partners, you are able to earn Air Miles twice which will mean you can get that flight reward faster and for less spend,” says Paul Lacey, the managing director for Europe, Middle East and India for Aimia, which owns and operates Air Miles Middle East.

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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EVIL%20DEAD%20RISE
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The Penguin

Starring: Colin Farrell, Cristin Milioti, Rhenzy Feliz

Creator: Lauren LeFranc

Rating: 4/5

SANCTIONED
  • Kirill Shamalov, Russia's youngest billionaire and previously married to Putin's daughter Katarina
  • Petr Fradkov, head of recently sanctioned Promsvyazbank and son of former head of Russian Foreign Intelligence, the FSB. 
  • Denis Bortnikov, Deputy President of Russia's largest bank VTB. He is the son of Alexander Bortnikov, head of the FSB which was responsible for the poisoning of political activist Alexey Navalny in August 2020 with banned chemical agent novichok.  
  • Yury Slyusar, director of United Aircraft Corporation, a major aircraft manufacturer for the Russian military.
  • Elena Aleksandrovna Georgieva, chair of the board of Novikombank, a state-owned defence conglomerate.
The specs

Engine: 2x201bhp AC Permanent-magnetic electric

Transmission: n/a

Power: 402bhp

Torque: 659Nm

Price estimate: Dh200,000

On sale: Q3 2022 

CHELSEA SQUAD

Arrizabalaga, Bettinelli, Rudiger, Christensen, Silva, Chalobah, Sarr, Azpilicueta, James, Kenedy, Alonso, Jorginho, Kante, Kovacic, Saul, Barkley, Ziyech, Pulisic, Mount, Hudson-Odoi, Werner, Havertz, Lukaku. 

Company%20profile
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Three ways to limit your social media use

Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.

1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.

2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information. 

3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
TOUCH RULES

Touch is derived from rugby league. Teams consist of up to 14 players with a maximum of six on the field at any time.

Teams can make as many substitutions as they want during the 40 minute matches.

Similar to rugby league, the attacking team has six attempts - or touches - before possession changes over.

A touch is any contact between the player with the ball and a defender, and must be with minimum force.

After a touch the player performs a “roll-ball” - similar to the play-the-ball in league - stepping over or rolling the ball between the feet.

At the roll-ball, the defenders have to retreat a minimum of five metres.

A touchdown is scored when an attacking player places the ball on or over the score-line.

The%20Sandman
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