The world's need for oil will rise 2.5 per cent this year following a surge in use this summer, says an official report.
The increase in global oil demand, by 2.1 million barrels a day (bpd), is expected to support current high prices of about US$80 a barrel. Yesterday's report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), a group of energy importing countries based in Paris, raised the group's forecast for demand growth by 300,000 bpd - equivalent to more than half the UAE's daily consumption level - from 1.8 million bpd.
The group revised its outlook for both this year and next following an unexpected increase in consumption in industrialised countries . Stimulative US monetary policy "and signs that China will engineer a soft landing for the economy have encouraged a belief in resilient demand growth", the IEA said. "OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] demand showed significant yearly growth for the first time since 2005."
The forecast echoes comments by the IEA's chief economist on Tuesday that he did not expect the world to experience a "double dip" recession. "When I look at developing nations such as China, the Middle East and Russia, which can be seen as leading indicators, they do not signal a double dip," Fatih Birol told Reuters. "They may save the rest of the world." The IEA's estimate for consumption this year, however, is almost twice that of OPEC, which said in its own report on Tuesday that it forecast global demand rising by only 1.3 per cent this year.
"The world economy received a rally of government aid in the first half of the year, helping world oil demand to grow by more than 1 million bpd," OPEC said. "However, depletion of government funds will leave oil demand forecasts for the second half a little below previously anticipated growth." World oil demand is closely tied to estimates for economic growth, which will remain precarious going into next year, both the IEA and OPEC warned.
The two groups have similar forecasts for next year, with the IEA expecting oil consumption growth of 1.2 million bpd and OPEC anticipating growth of 1 million bpd. This summer's surge was driven in part by several extraordinary factors, including unusually hot weather in East Asia and the stockpiling of heating oil in Germany, the IEA said. "At the risk of appearing a 'party-pooper' for market bulls, our prognoses still suggest to us that benign market fundamentals could persist well into 2011," the IEA said.
OIl prices have remained relatively stable for more than 18 months, holding within about $65 to $80 a barrel. Prices for US crude rose above $82 a barrel yesterday, pushed up by the IEA forecast and strong oil import data from China. Oman crude traded on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange rose $0.73 to $81.51 a barrel. Within the Middle East, Iran has weakened as a centre of consumption growth as a result of international sanctions, the IEA said. Iran's July petrol demand fell 15.1 per cent compared with the same month last year, the group said, and fell even further last month and in August.
"This dip appears to be related to toughened international sanctions prompted by the country's nuclear programme," the report said. Saudi Arabia, however, burned a record 915,000 barrels of crude every day in August to produce power, the IEA said, compared with a peak of just over 750,000 bpd last summer.
cstanton@thenational.ae
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2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Draw:
Group A: Egypt, DR Congo, Uganda, Zimbabwe
Group B: Nigeria, Guinea, Madagascar, Burundi
Group C: Senegal, Algeria, Kenya, Tanzania
Group D: Morocco, Ivory Coast, South Africa, Namibia
Group E: Tunisia, Mali, Mauritania, Angola
Group F: Cameroon, Ghana, Benin, Guinea-Bissau
Day 2, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Dinesh Chandimal has inherited a challenging job, after being made Sri Lanka’s Test captain. He responded in perfect fashion, with an easy-natured century against Pakistan. He brought up three figures with a majestic cover drive, which he just stood and admired.
Stat of the day – 33 It took 33 balls for Dilruwan Perera to get off the mark. His time on zero was eventful enough. The Sri Lankan No 7 was given out LBW twice, but managed to have both decisions overturned on review. The TV replays showed both times that he had inside edged the ball onto his pad.
The verdict In the two previous times these two sides have met in Abu Dhabi, the Tests have been drawn. The docile nature of proceedings so far makes that the likely outcome again this time, but both sides will be harbouring thoughts that they can force their way into a winning position.
Adele: The Stories Behind The Songs
Caroline Sullivan
Carlton Books
THE BIG MATCH
Arsenal v Manchester City,
Sunday, Emirates Stadium, 6.30pm
More on animal trafficking
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
The biog
Born: Kuwait in 1986
Family: She is the youngest of seven siblings
Time in the UAE: 10 years
Hobbies: audiobooks and fitness: she works out every day, enjoying kickboxing and basketball
The distance learning plan
Spring break will be from March 8 - 19
Public school pupils will undergo distance learning from March 22 - April 2. School hours will be 8.30am to 1.30pm
Staff will be trained in distance learning programmes from March 15 - 19
Teaching hours will be 8am to 2pm during distance learning
Pupils will return to school for normal lessons from April 5
Fight card
1. Featherweight 66kg: Ben Lucas (AUS) v Ibrahim Kendil (EGY)
2. Lightweight 70kg: Mohammed Kareem Aljnan (SYR) v Alphonse Besala (CMR)
3. Welterweight 77kg:Marcos Costa (BRA) v Abdelhakim Wahid (MAR)
4. Lightweight 70kg: Omar Ramadan (EGY) v Abdimitalipov Atabek (KGZ)
5. Featherweight 66kg: Ahmed Al Darmaki (UAE) v Kagimu Kigga (UGA)
6. Catchweight 85kg: Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) v Iuri Fraga (BRA)
7. Featherweight 66kg: Yousef Al Husani (UAE) v Mohamed Allam (EGY)
8. Catchweight 73kg: Mostafa Radi (PAL) v Ahmed Abdelraouf of Egypt (EGY)
9. Featherweight 66kg: Jaures Dea (CMR) v Andre Pinheiro (BRA)
10. Catchweight 90kg: Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Juscelino Ferreira (BRA)
Points tally
1. Australia 52; 2. New Zealand 44; 3. South Africa 36; 4. Sri Lanka 35; 5. UAE 27; 6. India 27; 7. England 26; 8. Singapore 8; 9. Malaysia 3
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
MATCH INFO
Bangla Tigers 108-5 (10 ovs)
Ingram 37, Rossouw 26, Pretorius 2-10
Deccan Gladiators 109-4 (9.5 ovs)
Watson 41, Devcich 27, Wiese 2-15
Gladiators win by six wickets