The economy is predicted to see a mild recovery next year and may already have reached the bottom of the downturn, according to a report from Morgan Stanley that helped UAE stock markets close higher yesterday.
"The worst may indeed be behind us," said Mohammed Jaber, a Dubai-based analyst at Morgan Stanley. "The strength of the recovery will depend on the momentum for global growth and the timely resolution of imbalances in its domestic property and credit markets."
The rising price of oil and local stimulus measures have boosted economic sentiment across the Emirates, despite a consensus among economists that output will shrink this year.
Morgan Stanley expects the economy to contract by 2 per cent for the year as the property industry continues to face difficulties and oil production declines.
The forecast is at the lower end of those published by local and international banks so far this year. According to the average of eight forecasts collated by the The National, the UAE economy will shrink by about 0.8 per cent this year.
The IMF predicted last month that growth in the Middle East this year would halve, and the UAE economy would contract 0.6 per cent. That is still better than an expected 1.3 per cent contraction in the global economy. Morgan Stanley said expected weakness in financial services, manufacturing and real estate would negatively impact the non-oil sector, which was likely to remain flat this year.
"The main drag on non-oil growth stems from the construction and real estate sectors - which comprise 24 per cent of non-oil GDP - which we project will contract by about 5 per cent in real terms," Mr Jaber said.
"Moreover, the impact of lower oil prices, underperforming capital markets and a weak real estate sector on consumer spending may be significant."
The slowdown in credit growth among local banks was also identified as a brake on economic expansion.
That growth could be further dampened because banks need to improve their loan-to-deposit ratios.
Morgan Stanley expects the oil sector to contract by 6 per cent this year in response to the sharp drop in global demand. Despite higher oil prices recently, they remain about 30 per cent lower than their average last year, and well below their peak of US$147 a barrel last July.
@Email:shamdan@thenational.ae
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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Bio
Born in Dibba, Sharjah in 1972.
He is the eldest among 11 brothers and sisters.
He was educated in Sharjah schools and is a graduate of UAE University in Al Ain.
He has written poetry for 30 years and has had work published in local newspapers.
He likes all kinds of adventure movies that relate to his work.
His dream is a safe and preserved environment for all humankind.
His favourite book is The Quran, and 'Maze of Innovation and Creativity', written by his brother.
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The essentials
What: Emirates Airline Festival of Literature
When: Friday until March 9
Where: All main sessions are held in the InterContinental Dubai Festival City
Price: Sessions range from free entry to Dh125 tickets, with the exception of special events.
Hot Tip: If waiting for your book to be signed looks like it will be timeconsuming, ask the festival’s bookstore if they have pre-signed copies of the book you’re looking for. They should have a bunch from some of the festival’s biggest guest authors.
Information: www.emirateslitfest.com
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Ireland v Denmark: The last two years
Denmark 1-1 Ireland
7/06/19, Euro 2020 qualifier
Denmark 0-0 Ireland
19/11/2018, Nations League
Ireland 0-0 Denmark
13/10/2018, Nations League
Ireland 1 Denmark 5
14/11/2017, World Cup qualifier
Denmark 0-0 Ireland
11/11/2017, World Cup qualifier
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BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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The Penguin
Starring: Colin Farrell, Cristin Milioti, Rhenzy Feliz
Creator: Lauren LeFranc
Rating: 4/5
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In numbers
Number of Chinese tourists coming to UAE in 2017 was... 1.3m
Alibaba’s new ‘Tech Town’ in Dubai is worth... $600m
China’s investment in the MIddle East in 2016 was... $29.5bn
The world’s most valuable start-up in 2018, TikTok, is valued at... $75bn
Boost to the UAE economy of 5G connectivity will be... $269bn
Strait of Hormuz
Fujairah is a crucial hub for fuel storage and is just outside the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route linking Middle East oil producers to markets in Asia, Europe, North America and beyond.
The strait is 33 km wide at its narrowest point, but the shipping lane is just three km wide in either direction. Almost a fifth of oil consumed across the world passes through the strait.
Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait, a move that would risk inviting geopolitical and economic turmoil.
Last month, Iran issued a new warning that it would block the strait, if it was prevented from using the waterway following a US decision to end exemptions from sanctions for major Iranian oil importers.
Company%20Profile
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Essentials
The flights: You can fly from the UAE to Iceland with one stop in Europe with a variety of airlines. Return flights with Emirates from Dubai to Stockholm, then Icelandair to Reykjavik, cost from Dh4,153 return. The whole trip takes 11 hours. British Airways flies from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Reykjavik, via London, with return flights taking 12 hours and costing from Dh2,490 return, including taxes.
The activities: A half-day Silfra snorkelling trip costs 14,990 Icelandic kronur (Dh544) with Dive.is. Inside the Volcano also takes half a day and costs 42,000 kronur (Dh1,524). The Jokulsarlon small-boat cruise lasts about an hour and costs 9,800 kronur (Dh356). Into the Glacier costs 19,500 kronur (Dh708). It lasts three to four hours.
The tours: It’s often better to book a tailor-made trip through a specialist operator. UK-based Discover the World offers seven nights, self-driving, across the island from £892 (Dh4,505) per person. This includes three nights’ accommodation at Hotel Husafell near Into the Glacier, two nights at Hotel Ranga and two nights at the Icelandair Hotel Klaustur. It includes car rental, plus an iPad with itinerary and tourist information pre-loaded onto it, while activities can be booked as optional extras. More information inspiredbyiceland.com
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The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
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