The headlines at the end of November, following the meeting in Vienna of Opec's oil ministers, were to varying degrees quite hysterical. There were declarations that it was "the end of Opec's power" and much talk of crisis and disarray in the previously all-powerful oil cartel, which once held the world to ransom over the price of a barrel of oil. Also, there was triumphalism about the coming of energy independence for the United States based on shale oil and gas. The abundant new supplies in North America have become available because of new technology that enables companies to get the stuff out of previously impossible-to-reach rock formations.
There were myriad dissections and analysis about what Saudi Arabia, Opec’s de facto leader, was up to with its strategy to keep pumping oil at the same rates even though production is – and will continue to be into next year – at least a million barrels a day more than the world demands. Was it aiming to defend market share and to let prices slide even lower to force off the market some of those more expensive-to-produce supplies, especially US shale oil? Did Riyadh have some foreign policy aims in mind with its low-oil-price strategy, such as keeping pressure on Iran and, in support of its US ally, on Russia, both of which have been suffering from sanctions?
It is at times like this that some historical perspective is needed. Oil prices have indeed seen one of their most precipitous declines since last summer, when the price of world benchmark North Sea Brent crude was above US$115 (Dh422) a barrel. By early December, the decline was about 40 per cent, with Brent trading either side of $70.
See all our Year in Review coverage
However, the decline followed a relatively long period of high and stable prices – Brent traded at an average of about $100 a barrel in the previous four years. For some countries, such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia and some other Arabian Gulf states, that represented a huge windfall and they built up enormous surpluses in wealth funds that they have used to invest in diversification, both of their investment portfolios and (to varying degrees) their economies.
This was apparent in October’s global economic forecasts by the International Monetary Fund. While the IMF trimmed its forecast for next year’s global economic growth to 3.8 per cent from the 4 per cent it forecast in July, it said the outlook for the main Gulf oil-producing countries was fairly healthy. The growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa region as a whole for this year was cut to 2.6 per cent from a 3.2 per cent forecast earlier in the year. But the IMF said growth in the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council countries will remain strong, at an average 4.5 per cent in both 2014 and 2015.
When Saudi oil minister Ali Al Naimi and his UAE counterpart Suhail Al Mazrouei repeatedly said that “there is no need to panic”, before, during and after the November Opec meeting, it is this background they must have had in mind.
It’s true many Opec member countries are under severe strain. As Ann-Louise Hittle, head of macro oil research at the consultant Wood Mackenzie, points out: “The lower oil prices will be painful for Iran, already exposed to reduced oil exports from sanctions, and Venezuela, both of which have high fiscal break-even prices well over $100 a barrel.”
Perhaps the country hit hardest, however, is Russia. "The biggest sufferer is Russia right now, with reports of between $140 to $200 billion already wiped off its GDP because of the fall in oil prices," says Tom James, head of Navitas Resources, a Dubai and Singapore-based energy consultancy. Iran has been suffering too, he says, with sanctions not keeping it from selling its crude, as such, but rather keeping its oil industry from getting spare parts, investment and expertise to maintain production rates. "But I think the real focus of US foreign policy right now is taming the Russians, and the Saudis support that," James says.
It is doubtful, however, that Saudi Arabia and its allies within Opec have made the specific calculation that following a laissez-faire policy and allowing oil prices to find their market level would have some desired foreign-policy impact. The policy is more likely a recognition that Opec as a group had long ago lost its cohesiveness – in the 1990s, for example, it was Venezuela, under a pre-Hugo Chavez pro-free market regime, that consistently refused to hold to its agreed production quotas. Since then, the Saudis have grown tired of having to constantly shoulder most of the burden of being the world’s “swing producer” and in the meantime losing market share. It is also questionable whether the Saudis are specifically targeting US shale production or are simply following the only policy available to them.
Paul Stevens, a fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, argues that any attempt to price US shale production off the market while hoping for a quick recovery in world demand is doomed to fail. “Those with knowledge of oil market history will see this as a very dangerous gamble,” he says. “Opec’s expectations of quickly recovering demand may be optimistic, as they were in the early 1980s.”
Indeed, it was Opec’s brief period of success – the oil price “shocks” of the 1970s and early 1980s – that were the seeds of the group’s subsequent weakening, says Stevens, as they gave rise to both demand destruction and rising non-Opec supplies. It is a similar situation now, whereby growth in the large developed economies does not lead to similar growth in the demand for oil. Also, the idea of pricing other oil sources, such as US shale, off the market is misguided, as lower oil prices may well lead those producers to pump more rather than less oil to cover their costs, he says.
The decision by Saudi Arabia and its allies to leave Opec policy unchanged is probably not so much an elaborately worked out plan as a simple recognition that there is not much else they can do.
See all our Year in Review coverage
Anthony McAuley is a senior business correspondent at The National.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ELECTION%20RESULTS
%3Cp%3EMacron%E2%80%99s%20Ensemble%20group%20won%20245%20seats.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20second-largest%20group%20in%20parliament%20is%20Nupes%2C%20a%20leftist%20coalition%20led%20by%20Jean-Luc%20Melenchon%2C%20which%20gets%20131%20lawmakers.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20far-right%20National%20Rally%20fared%20much%20better%20than%20expected%20with%2089%20seats.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20centre-right%20Republicans%20and%20their%20allies%20took%2061.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2019 Chevrolet Bolt EV
Price, base: Dh138,000 (estimate)
Engine: 60kWh battery
Transmission: Single-speed Electronic Precision Shift
Power: 204hp
Torque: 360Nm
Range: 520km (claimed)
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 258hp from 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,550-4,000rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.1L/100km
Price: from Dh362,500
On sale: now
ICC Intercontinental Cup
UAE squad Rohan Mustafa (captain), Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Rameez Shahzad, Mohammed Usman, Adnan Mufti, Saqlain Haider, Ahmed Raza, Mohammed Naveed, Imran Haider, Qadeer Ahmed, Mohammed Boota, Amir Hayat, Ashfaq Ahmed
Fixtures Nov 29-Dec 2
UAE v Afghanistan, Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Hong Kong v Papua New Guinea, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Ireland v Scotland, Dubai International Stadium
Namibia v Netherlands, ICC Academy, Dubai
Pros%20and%20cons%20of%20BNPL
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPros%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EEasy%20to%20use%20and%20require%20less%20rigorous%20credit%20checks%20than%20traditional%20credit%20options%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EOffers%20the%20ability%20to%20spread%20the%20cost%20of%20purchases%20over%20time%2C%20often%20interest-free%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EConvenient%20and%20can%20be%20integrated%20directly%20into%20the%20checkout%20process%2C%20useful%20for%20online%20shopping%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EHelps%20facilitate%20cash%20flow%20planning%20when%20used%20wisely%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECons%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EThe%20ease%20of%20making%20purchases%20can%20lead%20to%20overspending%20and%20accumulation%20of%20debt%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EMissing%20payments%20can%20result%20in%20hefty%20fees%20and%2C%20in%20some%20cases%2C%20high%20interest%20rates%20after%20an%20initial%20interest-free%20period%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EFailure%20to%20make%20payments%20can%20impact%20credit%20score%20negatively%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ERefunds%20can%20be%20complicated%20and%20delayed%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ECourtesy%3A%20Carol%20Glynn%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Warlight,
Michael Ondaatje, Knopf
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
Results
2.30pm Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m
Winner Lamia, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
3pm Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,000m
Winner Jap Al Afreet, Elione Chaves, Irfan Ellahi.
3.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m
Winner MH Tawag, Bernardo Pinheiro, Elise Jeanne.
4pm Handicap (TB) Dh40,000 2,000m
Winner Skygazer, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
4.30pm The Ruler of Sharjah Cup Prestige (PA) Dh250,000 1,700m
Winner AF Kal Noor, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
5pm Sharjah Marathon (PA) Dh70,000 2,700m
Winner RB Grynade, Bernardo Pinheiro, Eric Lemartinel.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Stage 3 results
1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 4:42:33
2 Tadej Pocagar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:03
3 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana 0:01:30
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ
5 Rafal Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe
6 Diego Ulissi (ITA) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:56
General Classification after Stage 3:
1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 12:30:02
2 Tadej Pocagar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:07
3 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana 0:01:35
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:01:40
5 Rafal Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe
6 Wilco Kelderman (NED) Team Sunweb) 0:02:06
Sri Lanka squad
Dinesh Chandimal, Dimuth Karunaratne, Kaushal Silva, Kusal Mendis, Angelo Mathews, Lahiru Thirimanne, Niroshan Dickwella, Sadeera Samarawickrama, Rangana Herath, Suranga Lakmal, Nuwan Pradeep, Lakshan Sandakan, Vishwa Fernando, Lahiru Kumara, Jeffrey Vandersay, Milinda Siriwardana, Roshen Silva, Akila Dananjaya, Charith Asalanka, Shaminda Eranga and Dhammika Prasad.
THE BIO
Favourite book: ‘Purpose Driven Life’ by Rick Warren
Favourite travel destination: Switzerland
Hobbies: Travelling and following motivational speeches and speakers
Favourite place in UAE: Dubai Museum
ARGYLLE
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Matthew%20Vaughn%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Bryce%20Dallas%20Howard%2C%20Sam%20Rockwell%2C%20John%20Cena%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Coffee: black death or elixir of life?
It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?
Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.
The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.
The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.
Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver.
The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.
But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.
Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.
It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.
So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.
Rory Reynolds
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8
Power: 503hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 685Nm at 2,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Price: from Dh850,000
On sale: now
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
