So, what's going to be the main foreign policy contest of the US presidential election? A week ago, you'd have gotten long odds for any answer other than Iran; now, it's looking a lot more like China. The political earthquake has yet to register, but register it must after blind dissident Chen Guangcheng escaped his house arrest and sought shelter in the US embassy in Beijing.
That President Barack Obama has remained silent on the matter of Chen is hardly surprising, as representatives of his administration engage in frantic negotiations with their Chinese counterparts to avert what could be a perilous political standoff. And equally unsurprising is the vocal insistence by Mr Obama's rival, Republican presumptive nominee Mitt Romney, that the US take steps to protect the dissident and his family. "Our country must play a strong role in urging reform in China and supporting those fighting for the freedoms we enjoy," Mr Romney said, in a statement typical of those by Republican and Democratic candidates speaking about China on the campaign trail.
But what happened to the threat of Israel launching a military strike on Iran, while Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters in Washington booed Mr Obama's diplomatic efforts as those of a feckless appeaser?
Mr Netanyahu is still desperate to play that game: Last week he used a Holocaust remembrance speech to paint Iran as the new Nazi Germany, racing madly to build nuclear weapons in order to destroy Israel, even if that meant national suicide. "The Iranian regime is acting openly and decisively toward our destruction, and it is acting feverishly to develop a nuclear weapon to achieve this goal," Mr Netanyahu said, just two days after accusing the Obama administration of giving Iran a "freebie" in the recent nuclear talks in Istanbul. Those comments, in which Mr Netanyahu pointedly rejected the idea that Iran's leaders were rational men, were calculated to tell the public that the current diplomacy with Iran is prevarication in the face of a mortal threat to Israel - a message aimed to raise domestic political heat on Mr Obama.
But then a curious thing happened: Israel's military chief of staff, Lt-Gen Benny Gantz, publicly disputed Mr Netanyahu's characterisation of the Iranians. Tehran's leaders are "very rational", Gen Gantz told the daily Haaretz, and he doubted they would go ahead and build nuclear weapons given the choices before them. That was a de facto ringing endorsement of Mr Obama's policy: The US leader had vowed to take military action were that to become necessary to stop Iran building nuclear weapons, but made clear that Iran hadn't yet taken a decision to do so.
Scarcely had Gen Gantz's interview been published then there was more flak for Mr Netanyahu, this time from Yuval Diskin, the respected recently retired head of the Shin Bet internal security service. Mr Diskin pulled no punches, warning Israelis that Mr Netanyahu and his defence minister, Ehud Barak, suffered from messianic delusions, were misleading the Israeli public about Iran, and should not be trusted. "I've seen them from up close," Mr Diskin told a community meeting last week. "They are not messiahs, either of them, and they are not people whom I, on a personal level, trust to lead the state of Israel into an event of that scale [a confrontation with Iran]." Indeed, he warned, attacking Iran is more likely to result in Iran actually acquiring nuclear weapons.
Heavy stuff, and over the weekend Mr Diskin's warnings were backed by both former Mossad chief Meir Dagan and even by former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Israeli public opinion polls repeatedly find that no more than one in four Israelis supports attacking Iran without the involvement of the United States. Israelis, it seems, don't want to be isolated from the US and the wider western world. And the consensus in its military and intelligence services clearly opposes the imminent strike threatened by Mr Netanyahu.
Mr Netanyahu's troubles, of course, are good news for Mr Obama, precisely because the Israeli leader has been trying to narrow the space available to him for diplomacy with Iran. Mr Netanyahu knows that the talks currently underway will, at best, produce a compromise well short of his bottom-line demands: the framework of the talks lends itself to a sequence of confidence building steps by both sides, involving an end to Iranian enrichment to 20 per cent and adoption of additional internationally verifiable safeguards against weaponisation, in exchange for easing sanctions. Mr Netanyahu has long insisted that Iran can't be allowed to exercise even those rights permitted it by the NPT, in respect of uranium enrichment - the Israelis want Iran's entire enrichment infrastructure rolled up and removed, which is clearly not going to happen.
US officials are reportedly moving towards accepting the principle - resisted until now - that Iran can maintain low-level uranium enrichment under stricter international scrutiny and safeguards once it has accounted for all its previous nuclear work to the satisfaction of the IAEA. Because such an outcome would leave Iran possessing infrastructure that could be used to build nuclear weapons, it's precisely the sort of compromise Mr Netanyahu is trying to block.
Having so many of his country's own leading securocrats painting Mr Netanyahu as a lunatic certainly undermines the hawkish stance he's adopting, and that diminishes the danger of a war any time soon. In fact, unless Iran does something really stupid and provocative, war remains unlikely this year, at least. But as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's posturing over the dispute with the UAE over the island of Abu Musa reminds us, that prospect can never be entirely ruled out, even if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's interests and Mr Obama's both require dialing down confrontation.
Tony Karon is a New York-based analyst
On Twitter: On Twitter: @ibnezra
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if you go
The flights
Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes.
When to visit
March-May and September-November
Visas
Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.
Pros%20and%20cons%20of%20BNPL
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Eyasses squad
Charlie Preston (captain) – goal shooter/ goalkeeper (Dubai College)
Arushi Holt (vice-captain) – wing defence / centre (Jumeriah English Speaking School)
Olivia Petricola (vice-captain) – centre / wing attack (Dubai English Speaking College)
Isabel Affley – goalkeeper / goal defence (Dubai English Speaking College)
Jemma Eley – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)
Alana Farrell-Morton – centre / wing / defence / wing attack (Nord Anglia International School)
Molly Fuller – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)
Caitlin Gowdy – goal defence / wing defence (Dubai English Speaking College)
Noorulain Hussain – goal defence / wing defence (Dubai College)
Zahra Hussain-Gillani – goal defence / goalkeeper (British School Al Khubairat)
Claire Janssen – goal shooter / goal attack (Jumeriah English Speaking School)
Eliza Petricola – wing attack / centre (Dubai English Speaking College)
THE SPECS
Cadillac XT6 2020 Premium Luxury
Engine: 3.6L V-6
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 310hp
Torque: 367Nm
Price: Dh280,000
Walls
Louis Tomlinson
3 out of 5 stars
(Syco Music/Arista Records)
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The past Palme d'Or winners
2018 Shoplifters, Hirokazu Kore-eda
2017 The Square, Ruben Ostlund
2016 I, Daniel Blake, Ken Loach
2015 Dheepan, Jacques Audiard
2014 Winter Sleep (Kış Uykusu), Nuri Bilge Ceylan
2013 Blue is the Warmest Colour (La Vie d'Adèle: Chapitres 1 et 2), Abdellatif Kechiche, Adele Exarchopoulos and Lea Seydoux
2012 Amour, Michael Haneke
2011 The Tree of Life, Terrence Malick
2010 Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (Lung Bunmi Raluek Chat), Apichatpong Weerasethakul
2009 The White Ribbon (Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte), Michael Haneke
2008 The Class (Entre les murs), Laurent Cantet
Mubadala World Tennis Championship 2018 schedule
Thursday December 27
Men's quarter-finals
Kevin Anderson v Hyeon Chung 4pm
Dominic Thiem v Karen Khachanov 6pm
Women's exhibition
Serena Williams v Venus Williams 8pm
Friday December 28
5th place play-off 3pm
Men's semi-finals
Rafael Nadal v Anderson/Chung 5pm
Novak Djokovic v Thiem/Khachanov 7pm
Saturday December 29
3rd place play-off 5pm
Men's final 7pm
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if you go
Getting there
Etihad (Etihad.com), Emirates (emirates.com) and Air France (www.airfrance.com) fly to Paris’ Charles de Gaulle Airport, from Abu Dhabi and Dubai respectively. Return flights cost from around Dh3,785. It takes about 40 minutes to get from Paris to Compiègne by train, with return tickets costing €19. The Glade of the Armistice is 6.6km east of the railway station.
Staying there
On a handsome, tree-lined street near the Chateau’s park, La Parenthèse du Rond Royal (laparenthesedurondroyal.com) offers spacious b&b accommodation with thoughtful design touches. Lots of natural woods, old fashioned travelling trunks as decoration and multi-nozzle showers are part of the look, while there are free bikes for those who want to cycle to the glade. Prices start at €120 a night.
More information: musee-armistice-14-18.fr ; compiegne-tourisme.fr; uk.france.fr
The Buckingham Murders
Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu
Director: Hansal Mehta
Rating: 4 / 5
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
if you go
The flights
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
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T20 World Cup Qualifier fixtures
Tuesday, October 29
Qualifier one, 2.10pm – Netherlands v UAE
Qualifier two, 7.30pm – Namibia v Oman
Wednesday, October 30
Qualifier three, 2.10pm – Scotland v loser of qualifier one
Qualifier four, 7.30pm – Hong Kong v loser of qualifier two
Thursday, October 31
Fifth-place playoff, 2.10pm – winner of qualifier three v winner of qualifier four
Friday, November 1
Semi-final one, 2.10pm – Ireland v winner of qualifier one
Semi-final two, 7.30pm – PNG v winner of qualifier two
Saturday, November 2
Third-place playoff, 2.10pm
Final, 7.30pm
BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5