Gaza ceasefire: How the much-anticipated deal may unfold


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After 15 months of war that has destroyed most of Gaza and displaced 90 per cent of its 2.3 million people, Israel and Hamas have agreed to phase one of a ceasefire deal and hostage release plan.

The much-anticipated agreement is scheduled to take effect on Sunday, subject to the approval of the Israeli cabinet.

The three-phase deal promises the release of dozens of hostages held in Gaza by Hamas and hundreds of Palestinian detainees in Israel. It will allow hundreds of thousands of displaced Gazans to return to what remains of their homes and will also flood the territory with desperately needed humanitarian aid, mediators said.

The US, along with Egypt and Qatar, brokered months of indirect talks between Israel and Hamas that finally culminated in a deal.

Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman said the success of the ceasefire would depend on the two sides “acting in good faith”. He spoke in the Qatari capital of Doha, the site of painstaking negotiations.

Complicating the picture, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said late on Wednesday that the agreement was still not complete and final details were being worked out.

Early on Thursday, his office followed up with a statement accusing Hamas of backtracking on an understanding that would have given Israel a veto over which detainees accused of murder are to be released. Mr Netanyahu said he told Israeli negotiators to stand firm on the earlier agreement, adding that the Israeli cabinet would not meet to discuss the deal until "mediators announce that Hamas has approved all the details".

Hamas senior official Ezzat Al Rashq said the group was committed to the deal.

A banner celebrating the Gaza ceasefire announcement, in the west coast Canadian city of Vancouver. AP
A banner celebrating the Gaza ceasefire announcement, in the west coast Canadian city of Vancouver. AP

Of about 240 people abducted by Hamas-led militants, nearly 100 remain in Gaza, although Israel’s military believes at least a third are dead.

The first phase of the ceasefire deal is expected to deliver an initial six-week halt in the fighting, along with the opening of negotiations on ending the war altogether.

Over those six weeks, 33 hostages – mostly women, children, older adults and the wounded – will be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian women and children detained by Israel. Remaining male captives will be freed in the second phase.

It remains unclear exactly when and how many displaced Palestinians will be able to return to their homes. There will be a surge in humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza, with hundreds of lorries allowed in each day.

On the 16th day of the deal's implementation, negotiations will begin regarding the next stage, which will include the release of the remaining hostages. Israel will then withdraw its forces to a defensive belt that will serve as a buffer between Gaza and Israel.

The third stage of the deal will include returning the remains of dead hostages and a focus on the reconstruction of Gaza, supervised by Egypt, Qatar and the UN. Israel will be expected to fully withdraw from the territory.

The hostages were captured by Hamas on October 7, 2023 during an attack on southern Israel that killed around 1,200 people, triggering the war. The assault sparked an Israeli response that has killed more than 46,700 people and injured over twice that number, according to Gaza health authorities. Swathes of built-up areas in Gaza have been reduced to rubble, while dozens of Palestinians are still being killed daily.

It is unclear whether the ceasefire deal will bring a permanent end to the war. A key aim of Israel was to destroy the military and governing capacity of Hamas. The militant group has been severely weakened but is still able to operate and regroup.

It is also unknown how many of the hostages are alive, and if Hamas even knows where they all are. Deals between Israel and Hamas to stop wars in the past have broken down, indicating this agreement could be equally fragile.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

MATCH INFO

RB Leipzig 2 (Klostermann 24', Schick 68')

Hertha Berlin 2 (Grujic 9', Piatek 82' pen)

Man of the match Matheus Cunha (Hertha Berlin

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The trek: Make sure that whatever tour company you select to climb Kilimanjaro, that it is a reputable one. The way to climb successfully would be with experienced guides and porters, from a company committed to quality, safety and an ethical approach to the mountain and its staff. Sonia Nazareth booked a VIP package through Safari Africa. The tour works out to $4,775 (Dh17,538) per person, based on a 4-person booking scheme, for 9 nights on the mountain (including one night before and after the trek at Arusha). The price includes all meals, a head guide, an assistant guide for every 2 trekkers, porters to carry the luggage, a cook and kitchen staff, a dining and mess tent, a sleeping tent set up for 2 persons, a chemical toilet and park entrance fees. The tiny ration of heated water provided for our bath in our makeshift private bathroom stall was the greatest luxury. A standard package, also based on a 4-person booking, works out to $3,050 (Dh11,202) per person.

When to go: You can climb Kili at any time of year, but the best months to ascend  are  January-February and September-October.  Also good are July and August, if you’re tolerant of the colder weather that winter brings.

Do not underestimate the importance of kit. Even if you’re travelling at a relatively pleasant time, be geared up for the cold and the rain.

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One in nine do not have enough to eat

Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.

One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.

The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.

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On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.

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Updated: January 17, 2025, 7:51 AM