Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara has hit two walls of resistance – one Kurdish and one Druze – in his drive to consolidate power since the fall of the old regime almost nine months ago.
The former commander of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), whose 11-day advance in December toppled a system many thought was impregnable, is struggling to exert control over two strategic regions. The first is the small governorate of Sweida, on the border with Jordan, and the second is the much larger and richer north-eastern area of the country, near Iraq.
An offensive to take control of mostly Druze Sweida was foiled last month. Meanwhile, a mix of negotiations and force have not been able to dislodge the mostly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from the north-east, the reservoir of Syria's commodities, power, and energy. Although Mr Al Shara is engaged in normalisation with the US, the Kurds have retained enough American support to resist takeover by the new central authorities.
Mr Al Shara “believes that time is on his side”, according to one insider who recently met senior officials in Damascus. “The Americans are gravitating towards him, and he has been cultivating the Russians and others, in addition to his closeness to Turkey.”
The source said Mr Al Shara is also hoping to convince Washington to move at least some of the military bases it has in the SDF zone in the north-east into government areas in the interior, thus strengthening the burgeoning alliance with Washington.
Mr Al Shara’s forces appear to have upped their military offensive against the SDF, which on Sunday said it repelled a government attack on the Deir Ezzor front, while Turkish allies pounded SDF positions from the air.
In a meeting with Arab journalists on Sunday, Mr Al Shara maintained a hardline position that there can be no alternative to a unitary state and brushed off the possibility of a decentralised system.
If Mr Al Shara spreads his authority all over the country, he will strengthen Syria’s position as a regional player. The president would also satisfy a shared goal with Turkey, his main non-Arab backer, of ending any Syrian Kurdish aspirations for autonomy, although Ankara appears to have contained the threat from its own Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), after the PKK disbanded this year.
Insiders say the President is confident that his strategic position is improving and that his stance against Kurds and the Druze will prevail, although the two groups have been entrenching on the ground, distrustful that a central takeover will not invite militants into their midst.
“He has established himself as a credible anti-terrorism partner,” the source said, pointing out what he described as increased security co-operation the new authorities have with Washington since Mr Al Shara met Donald Trump in Riyadh in May.
Mr Al Shara could be also willing to order the dissolution of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, allaying the concerns of Arab countries who regard it as a major national security threat.
The President, however, would prefer to nudge the Brotherhood into disbanding. In his meeting with journalists, Mr Al Shara emphasised the importance of Syria to business and economic exchange across the region, saying Lebanon and Iraq could benefit considerably if Syria's reconstruction drive takes off.
Another insider affiliated with HTS said that although Mr Shara is convinced he will win eventual US support to control a centralised Syria, he cannot deviate from such a goal because his core Arab Sunni constituency will not approve of anything less. “It is part of the war dividend they are expecting,” the source said.
After the violence in Sweida last month, The Washington Post quoted Tom Barrack, the US envoy to Syria, as saying that the government should consider “something short of” federalism, in which you allow everybody to keep their own integrity, their own culture, their own language, and no threat of Islamism”.
It represented a change from earlier US signals that Washington supports a strong central state in Syria. However, the remarks fell short of endorsing the Iraq-like federalism that the SDF demands.
The HTS source cautioned that nobody should confuse "Al Shara's patience with weakness”, pointing out remarks he made to the journalists suggesting that Syria could be close to signing a security deal with Israel, which could mean more freedom of action against both the Druze and the Kurds.
His army has enough weapons from the previous Assad regime, and enough elite troops, to “cleanse every part of Syria of any opposition”. The President is playing “the long game, methodically building inside and outside support to remain in power for decades”.
ANALYSTS’ TOP PICKS OF SAUDI BANKS IN 2019
Analyst: Aqib Mehboob of Saudi Fransi Capital
Top pick: National Commercial Bank
Reason: It will be at the forefront of project financing for government-led projects
Analyst: Shabbir Malik of EFG-Hermes
Top pick: Al Rajhi Bank
Reason: Defensive balance sheet, well positioned in retail segment and positively geared for rising rates
Analyst: Chiradeep Ghosh of Sico Bank
Top pick: Arab National Bank
Reason: Attractive valuation and good growth potential in terms of both balance sheet and dividends
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Jebel Ali results
2pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner: AF Al Moreeb, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
2.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Shamikh, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard
3pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 64,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: One Vision, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
3.30pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Gabr, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson
4pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 96,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Just A Penny, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson
4.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Torno Subito, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 76,000 (D) 1,950m
Winner: Untold Secret, Jose Santiago, Salem bin Ghadayer
Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters
The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.
Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.
A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.
The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.
The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.
Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.
Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment
But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
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Emirates Cricket Board Women’s T10
ECB Hawks v ECB Falcons
Monday, April 6, 7.30pm, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
The match will be broadcast live on the My Sports Eye Facebook page
Hawks
Coach: Chaitrali Kalgutkar
Squad: Chaya Mughal (captain), Archara Supriya, Chamani Senevirathne, Chathurika Anand, Geethika Jyothis, Indhuja Nandakumar, Kashish Loungani, Khushi Sharma, Khushi Tanwar, Rinitha Rajith, Siddhi Pagarani, Siya Gokhale, Subha Srinivasan, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish
Falcons
Coach: Najeeb Amar
Squad: Kavisha Kumari (captain), Almaseera Jahangir, Annika Shivpuri, Archisha Mukherjee, Judit Cleetus, Ishani Senavirathne, Lavanya Keny, Mahika Gaur, Malavika Unnithan, Rishitha Rajith, Rithika Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Shashini Kaluarachchi, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi, Vaishnave Mahesh
Company%20Profile
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