Sudan army steps up recruitment drive but more battlefield setbacks may be in store

Hurt by the loss of its last stronghold in Darfur, Sudan's armed forces have stepped up a drive to recruit volunteers to join the fight against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, but analysts say the army could face further battlefield setbacks.

They highlighted a campaign driven by Islamist influence that preys on the poor, fuelled by hate speech and accusations of treason against any man who refuses to join the army’s fight.

The loss of the city of El Fasher in late October dealt a body blow to the army and further enshrined the de facto division of Sudan. Further losses are predicted in Kordofan to the south and south-west of Darfur where three cities – El Obeid, Babanoussa and El Diling – are under RSF siege and likely to fall into its hands within months, if not weeks, analysts said.

As of now, the RSF controls Darfur and parts of Kordofan, while the capital Khartoum, as well as northern, central and eastern Sudan are held by the armed forces. Both sides have their own appointed governments, with the RSF's based in the Darfur city of Nyala and the army-backed administration in Port Sudan on the Red Sea.

Part of the army's reaction to the loss of El Fasher was to increase and broaden the scale of the recruitment of fighters, an undertaking now channelled through a commission led by a retired army general. The commission has recently opened branches in army-held regions and its representatives tour those areas looking for men willing to join the fight against the RSF.

The recruitment campaign has the support of provincial governors who have recently replaced their civilian attire with combat fatigues. Mosque sermons in those areas now routinely list the virtues of fighting against the RSF, portraying the conflict as a religious war pitting the righteous against sinners.

Gen Al Bashir Al Bahy, head of the commission – its official name is the National Commission for Mobilisation and Popular Resistance – said last week that the agency aimed to help take back Darfur and Kordofan, as well as protect the northern regions.

Borrowing a phrase often repeated by Egypt's former president Gamal Abdel Nasser, following his country's defeat by Israel in 1967, Gen Al Bahy said: "No voice should be louder than the sound of battle."

But with the Sudanese war well into its third year, a negotiated settlement remaining elusive and the chilling brutality of the conflict obvious to all, some in Sudan are reluctant to sign up to join the fight.

Since it broke out in April 2023, the war has killed tens of thousands, displaced about 14 million and left about 30 million facing hunger, with famine emerging in several parts of the country, mainly in the west.

The two sides are accused of war crimes, with both army chief Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan and his one-time ally and RSF commander Gen Mohamed Dagalo under US sanctions. Their ambition to dominate Sudan is the root cause of the war.

The notion of the war being little more than mindless violence appears to have taken root in parts of Sudan hundreds of kilometres from the front lines in the west, such as Khartoum and regions up and down the Nile to the north and south of the sprawling capital.

"The war has been going for too long and many people are now convinced it's pointless," said Abdel Qayoum Awad, a resident of the northern city of Shindy. "The war has moved further away to places that hold no interest for most Sudanese. They feel they no longer have a stake in this war."

These sentiments are echoed by other ordinary Sudanese, many of whom see the influence of Islamists in the recruiting campaigns, which they liken to similar drives by toppled former leader Omar Al Bashir during a civil war that lasted more than 20 years.

"Basically, we, as Sudanese, have no stake in this war. We are against war in principle, let alone getting mobilised to fight in it," said Mohammad Mustafa, a government employee from northern Sudan. "I will not be part of it. I want to have a normal life like that in other countries. Why are we fighting? At the end, they will have to sit and talk."

Mohammed Abdullah, who has fled the capital for the relative safety of the northern city of Halfa, claims recruiters use hate speech to enlist men and that their motivational speeches in neighbourhood rallies has a distinct Islamist undertone.

"The army's narrative has been hijacked by Islamists loyal to Al Bashir and whose political interests lie in the continuation of the war," he said. "I reject mobilisation and the continuation of the war. I want to see peace."

Al Bashir, who ruled Sudan for 29 years, was toppled by the military during a popular uprising in 2019. His top loyalists were sidelined or jailed by the military-civilian government that succeeded him.

However, they returned to public life soon after the war broke out in 2023, taking advantage of the army's shortage of infantrymen by sending thousands of their cadres to join troops in the fight against the RSF.

Their comeback was aided in no small measure by fellow Islamists in the army's leadership and the reversal of laws and court verdicts dissolving their party and organisations and freezing their assets.

Saleh Mahgoub, a retired army brigadier who is now a military analyst, said the recruitment of civilians to fight was in many cases a thinly veiled exploitation of the poor. He also questioned whether the enlistment of volunteers could meaningfully change the course of the war.

"The recruitment appears more to do with the protection and security of areas where it's taking place rather than an effort to reinforce troops on the front lines of the west," he said. "Moving men and hardware to the theatre of operations in the West is now a very dangerous undertaking."

Sami Saeed, a Sudan expert in the US, believes the recruitment drive has been used by Islamists to operate freely and curry favour with the army at a time when many are reluctant to join given the war's "very cruel nature".

"Ordinary folks don't subscribe to zero-sum formulas. They see in this war a certain death," he said. Videos purported to show RSF fighters executing civilians in El Fasher have also discouraged potential volunteers, he added. "People have also heard discouraging stories of how the army and its allies in El Fasher forced some of the city's fighting-age men to join them or face charges of treason and how the army has a track record of stealthily withdrawing from its positions without warning civilians in advance."

The apparent difficulties facing the recruitment drive and a repeat of the defeat in El Fasher may be haunting the army now as it struggles to lift morale in its ranks and the confidence of the public. Of the three Kordofan cities that could be overtaken by the RSF, El Obeid is by far the more important one given its size and its location at a crossroads linking the vast west to the rest of the country.

A pipeline carrying crude oil from fields in South Sudan to Port Sudan runs through El Obeid, also a traditional aid-distribution hub and a major trade centre for gum Arabic, a main Sudan export, as well as cattle.

Babanoussa in western Kordofan has seen most of its residents flee the city after the RSF began its siege in the war's early days and its capture may be a matter of time, analysts said.

El Diling in Southern Kordofan is populated mostly by supporters of rebel leader and RSF ally Abdel Aziz El Helou but, like El Obeid and Banaoussa, it is home to an army garrison stretched thin defending the city.

El Diling sits between Kadugli, the rebel-held capital of the Nuba Mountains in Southern Kordofan, and El Obeid. Its capture could mean the more important city of Kadugli would be completely cut off from the rest of Sudan, strengthening the rebels' hold on the city they have held for years.

Al Shafie Ahmed contributed to reporting from Kampala, Uganda