Climate change is making stormy days in the UAE more common and more intense, according to a new study.
The research, from scientists at Khalifa University and the National Centre of Meteorology, found that there are up to two more stormy days per year now compared to 2000.
This increase is set to continue, the scientists behind the study found by using a combination of satellite data and computer modelling.
In April last year the UAE experienced its most severe rainfall in a single day for 75 years in an event that researchers later said had been made more intense by climate change.
“With global warming, we know that the air is capable of holding more moisture and [this is] therefore fuelling severe convection and extreme rainfall,” said Dr Diana Francis, head of Khalifa University’s Environmental and Geophysical Sciences (Engeos) Laboratory, who is also one of the study's authors.
“So the increasing trend of occurrence means increasing risks of extreme rainfall events. It is not just the occurrence that has increased, but also the intensity.”
The study, Drivers and Trends of Summertime Convection over the South-Eastern Arabian Peninsula, will be published soon in Geophysical Research Letters.
Between 2000 and 2024 the UAE averaged five stormy days per year.
Future floods
“Regarding future trends, by 2100, models project about three to four additional stormy days per summer (May–October) relative to the 2015 baseline,” Dr Francis said.
This means that over the course of the 21st century, there could be a near doubling of the number of stormy days in the country.
In the paper, which focused on weather affecting the UAE and Oman, the researchers said that storms tended to develop over mountainous areas during July and August.
“They are driven mainly by strong daytime heating, moisture arriving from nearby oceans and local wind patterns shaped by the region’s unique terrain,” the researchers wrote.
They said that the storms were also driven by thermal lows – low-pressure systems generated by the heating of the Earth’s surface – over the Arabian peninsula.
“Understanding these storms and their future trends is essential, as it could allow for better management of water resources and improved preparation for flood events, both of which are critical concerns in this dry region,” the researchers said in the paper.
The increase in the number of stormy days varies with different carbon emissions scenarios, but Dr Francis said that any differences were “minimal”.
She cautioned that there was “some uncertainty” about the extent to which the number of stormy days would increase in the UAE, as more detailed models would be needed to give an accurate figure.
The other authors of the study were Dr Narendra Nelli and Dr Ricardo Fonseca of the Engeos Lab, Dr Luca Delle Monache of the University of California San Diego and Abdulla Al Mandous of the National Centre of Meteorology.
The severe flooding that affected Dubai, Sharjah and some other parts of the UAE hit on April 16 last year, with Al Ain receiving 254mm of rainfall in a single day – as much as it typically gets in two years. There were five deaths in the UAE and at least 20 in Oman.
Shortly after the deluge, the World Weather Attribution service said that climate change had made the rainstorms between 10 and 40 per cent more severe.
While the risk of extreme rainfall in the UAE is rising, the authorities are improving drainage systems to limit its effects following the 2024 floods.
Last year Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, approved the Dh30 billion Tasreef project, due to be finished in 2033, to improve the emirate’s drainage.
In June, Dubai Municipality announced that it had completed the scheme’s first part, a Dh277 million sewerage and rainwater drainage network in Nad Al Sheba.
A pumping station that can handle 4,000 litres of water per second and a 31km drainage pipeline were installed as part of the initiative.
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About Housecall
Date started: July 2020
Founders: Omar and Humaid Alzaabi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech
# of staff: 10
Funding to date: Self-funded
The biog
Favourite food: Tabbouleh, greek salad and sushi
Favourite TV show: That 70s Show
Favourite animal: Ferrets, they are smart, sensitive, playful and loving
Favourite holiday destination: Seychelles, my resolution for 2020 is to visit as many spiritual retreats and animal shelters across the world as I can
Name of first pet: Eddy, a Persian cat that showed up at our home
Favourite dog breed: I love them all - if I had to pick Yorkshire terrier for small dogs and St Bernard's for big
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
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Citizenship-by-investment programmes
United Kingdom
The UK offers three programmes for residency. The UK Overseas Business Representative Visa lets you open an overseas branch office of your existing company in the country at no extra investment. For the UK Tier 1 Innovator Visa, you are required to invest £50,000 (Dh238,000) into a business. You can also get a UK Tier 1 Investor Visa if you invest £2 million, £5m or £10m (the higher the investment, the sooner you obtain your permanent residency).
All UK residency visas get approved in 90 to 120 days and are valid for 3 years. After 3 years, the applicant can apply for extension of another 2 years. Once they have lived in the UK for a minimum of 6 months every year, they are eligible to apply for permanent residency (called Indefinite Leave to Remain). After one year of ILR, the applicant can apply for UK passport.
The Caribbean
Depending on the country, the investment amount starts from $100,000 (Dh367,250) and can go up to $400,000 in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take between four to five months to receive a passport.
Portugal
The investment amount ranges from €350,000 to €500,000 (Dh1.5m to Dh2.16m) in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take a maximum of six months to receive a Golden Visa. Applicants can apply for permanent residency after five years and Portuguese citizenship after six years.
“Among European countries with residency programmes, Portugal has been the most popular because it offers the most cost-effective programme to eventually acquire citizenship of the European Union without ever residing in Portugal,” states Veronica Cotdemiey of Citizenship Invest.
Greece
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Greece is €250,000, making it the cheapest real estate residency visa scheme in Europe. You can apply for residency in four months and citizenship after seven years.
Spain
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Spain is €500,000. You can apply for permanent residency after five years and citizenship after 10 years. It is not necessary to live in Spain to retain and renew the residency visa permit.
Cyprus
Cyprus offers the quickest route to citizenship of a European country in only six months. An investment of €2m in real estate is required, making it the highest priced programme in Europe.
Malta
The Malta citizenship by investment programme is lengthy and investors are required to contribute sums as donations to the Maltese government. The applicant must either contribute at least €650,000 to the National Development & Social Fund. Spouses and children are required to contribute €25,000; unmarried children between 18 and 25 and dependent parents must contribute €50,000 each.
The second step is to make an investment in property of at least €350,000 or enter a property rental contract for at least €16,000 per annum for five years. The third step is to invest at least €150,000 in bonds or shares approved by the Maltese government to be kept for at least five years.
Candidates must commit to a minimum physical presence in Malta before citizenship is granted. While you get residency in two months, you can apply for citizenship after a year.
Egypt
A one-year residency permit can be bought if you purchase property in Egypt worth $100,000. A three-year residency is available for those who invest $200,000 in property, and five years for those who purchase property worth $400,000.
Source: Citizenship Invest and Aqua Properties
The specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: nine-speed
Power: 542bhp
Torque: 700Nm
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