Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
September 19, 2021
The rehabilitation of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad with the help of his ally Russia has reached a critical milestone in recent weeks. Lebanon, long considered by Syria a strategic depth, is being used as a testing ground. The question of what to do about Hezbollah is at the heart of this effort, which could eventually invalidate the logic and purpose of the group’s militancy. For Mr Al Assad and Hezbollah alike, what is happening now is about swallowing bitter medicine and making concessions.
Believing he is the victor at home and in the region, Mr Al Assad is reluctant to make many concessions and behaves as though he will remain Syria’s President indefinitely. His alliance with Russia, Iran and Hezbollah have managed to turn that weakness into a strength. He wields his obstinacy and his powerful foreign alliances against Syria’s internal opposition as well as against the US and Turkey.
So it may have been difficult for him when Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier this month that Moscow considers Israel’s security to be a top priority in the context of the Syrian war and other conflicts. Israel had earlier expressed concerns to Moscow regarding the implications of a US withdrawal from Syria, fearing that it would empower Iran there and embolden Mr Al Assad to attempt to recover the Israel-occupied Golan Heights. Moscow is thought to be encouraging Damascus to save any enthusiasm for taking back the Golan Heights for another day.
The Russian position in terms of openly prioritising Israel’s security is a game changer. Today, Russia is, in effect, Washington’s partner in guaranteeing Israeli security in the Middle East. Mr Lavrov’s remarks that Russia did not want Syrian territory to be used to attack Israel applies also to Lebanon. But while the decision to attack Israel out of Syria is a Syrian decision, the decision for Hezbollah to attack Israel from Lebanon remains an Iranian decision – not the decision of the Lebanese state.
It is possible that this means Iran, another Russian ally, has agreed to rein in any Hezbollah plans to mount any serious attack against Israel. This would put Hezbollah’s arsenal, which the group says exists solely to resist Israel and liberate occupied Arab lands, now lies in deep freeze in the Russian-Iranian refrigerator. Its real purpose is perhaps purely propagandistic.
A Hezbollah supporter fires a rocket-propelled grenade in the air to celebrate the arrival of Iranian fuel tankers to Lebanon, in the eastern town of Baalbek, Lebanon, on September 16, 2021. AP
Assessing precisely Hezbollah’s position in the home front, the region and the world is not easy. There are at least two views here.
One is that Iran’s approach is uncompromising, and therefore the same can be said for Hezbollah’s. From this perspective, Lebanon is effectively under Iranian occupation enforced by Hezbollah by dominating all aspects of the Lebanese state and its sovereignty. Tehran will know how to play the Russians and Americans, while preserving its precious cards in the form of proxies across the region, no matter what happens. Therefore, Hezbollah will increase its domination of Lebanon while the West looks the other way, and will continue to control the decision for war and peace in the country at the behest of the IRGC. Indeed, Hezbollah and its supporters still behave with triumphalism, most recently celebrating the arrival of Iranian fuel shipments via Syria with Iranian flags and Mr Al Assad’s portraits, rather than the Lebanese flag. No doubt, Mr Al Assad is elated. Iran’s fuel shipments and electricity and gas supplies are a gift to him from the Biden administration, wrapped in the guise of humanitarian aid to Lebanon.
But the other view sees Iran’s commitments to European powers, Russia and China as ushering in new roles for Hezbollah, the oldest and strongest foreign policy arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The proponents of this view believe that the formation of the new Lebanese government under Najib Mikati – despite the wrangling over interests, the bargains made, the questions around its technocratic credentials and the restoration of the same old political class – is a step to lead Lebanon out of a path towards collapse and war, and assures its survival.
Change in Lebanon, this view contends, will not come from outside and will take a long time, and that its first milestone will be the legislative election under international oversight and with serious popular participation, rather than revolutions and uprisings, which have proven to be unsustainable.
From this perspective, Hezbollah’s domination over Lebanon is also unsustainable, because the arc of gradual political reform and stability in the country’s diverse society bends towards consensus. In other words, if Iran’s superpower allies want to see Lebanon stable, then Hezbollah’s weapons there become impotent.
The same could be said of Hezbollah’s weapons in Syria, where Moscow is drawing red lines for Mr Al Assad and his allies. Partnership is one thing, and hierarchy is another. In the thinking of Russian diplomacy, many roadmaps are taking shape in the greater Middle East and the Gulf, where Moscow wants to broker security pacts between Iran, Israel, and the Arab states. If that is the situation, then reining in Hezbollah would form a natural part of the ensuing strategy. And that would say a great deal about the sacrifices necessary to see an Iran-Syria-Hezbollah nexus that the world’s superpowers could learn to live with.
THURSDAY'S ORDER OF PLAY
Centre Court
Starting at 10am:
Lucrezia Stefanini v Elena Rybakina (6)
Aryna Sabalenka (4) v Polona Hercog
Sofia Kenin (1) v Zhaoxuan Yan
Kristina Mladenovic v Garbine Muguruza (5)
Sorana Cirstea v Karolina Pliskova (3)
Jessica Pegula v Elina Svitolina (2)
Court 1
Starting at 10am:
Sara Sorribes Tormo v Nadia Podoroska
Marketa Vondrousova v Su-Wei Hsieh
Elise Mertens (7) v Alize Cornet
Tamara Zidansek v Jennifer Brady (11)
Heather Watson v Jodie Burrage
Vera Zvonareva v Amandine Hesse
Court 2
Starting at 10am:
Arantxa Rus v Xiyu Wang
Maria Kostyuk v Lucie Hradecka
Karolina Muchova v Danka Kovinic
Cori Gauff v Ulrikke Eikeri
Mona Barthel v Anastasia Gasanova
Court 3
Starting at 10am:
Kateryna Bondarenko v Yafan Wang
Aliaksandra Sasnovich v Anna Bondar
Bianca Turati v Yaroslava Shvedova
TO ALL THE BOYS: ALWAYS AND FOREVER
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Two stars
Results
5pm: Wadi Nagab – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,200m; Winner: Al Falaq, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ahmed Al Shemaili (trainer)
5.30pm: Wadi Sidr – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: AF Majalis, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: AF Fakhama, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash
6.30pm: Wadi Shees – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Mutaqadim, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-1 – Listed (PA) Dh230,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Bahar Muscat, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7.30pm: Wadi Tayyibah – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Poster Paint, Patrick Cosgrave, Bhupat Seemar
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When: Thursday, 9pm Arizona time (Friday UAE, 8am)
Coming 2 America
Directed by: Craig Brewer
Starring: Eddie Murphy, Arsenio Hall, Jermaine Fowler, Leslie Jones
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
2018: Formal work begins
November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
MATCH INFO
Group B
Bayern Munich v Tottenham, midnight (Thursday)
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
Key findings of Jenkins report
Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Tank warfare
Lt Gen Erik Petersen, deputy chief of programs, US Army, has argued it took a “three decade holiday” on modernising tanks.
“There clearly remains a significant armoured heavy ground manoeuvre threat in this world and maintaining a world class armoured force is absolutely vital,” the general said in London last week.
“We are developing next generation capabilities to compete with and deter adversaries to prevent opportunism or miscalculation, and, if necessary, defeat any foe decisively.”
Business Insights
Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
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Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
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Rating: 3/5
The biog
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Nationality: New Zealand
Education: Degree in zoology at The University of Sydney
Favourite book: Lemurs of Madagascar by Russell A Mittermeier
Favourite music: Billy Joel
Weekends and holidays: Talking about animals or visiting his farm in Australia
BORDERLANDS
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A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
THE SPECS
2020 Toyota Corolla Hybrid LE
Engine: 1.8 litre combined with 16-volt electric motors
Transmission: Automatic with manual shifting mode
Power: 121hp
Torque: 142Nm
Price: Dh95,900
Director: Shady Ali
Cast: Boumi Fouad , Mohamed Tharout and Hisham Ismael
Rating: 3/5
