This, famously, is a year of elections all over the world and so perhaps we should begin with some good news. We have witnessed the greatest exercise of democracy in history, the elections in India. Narendra Modi has now been sworn in for a third term as Prime Minister, although without his party obtaining an overall majority.
Whatever you think of the result, the Indian elections were a stunning achievement. Almost a billion Indian citizens were eligible to vote, in what was a triumph for the democratic spirit in the fast-growing economic and political power in South Asia.
Elsewhere, however, there is turmoil ahead.
One unanswerable question is what the prospect of former US president Donald Trump’s return to the White House might mean. That question energised a discussion I chaired at a weekend conference in the north of England, York Festival of Ideas, but so more urgently did the EU elections.
Senior diplomats, political researchers, academics and international relations and defence specialists met to consider, among other things, what a second Trump term in the White House might mean but also what the rise of far-right parties in Europe might do to shape, or damage, international relations, the future of Nato, European security, support for Ukraine, and other matters.
We met as tens of millions of EU citizens were voting in elections that define the composition of the European Parliament. Those elections also acted as an important opinion poll across an increasingly troubled continent setting the tone of political debate within every EU member state.
At first sight, the results have been greeted with alarm. One key trend has indeed been the rise of parties from the right, far right, or some may prefer to say, extreme right.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron reacted swiftly to the election victory of his key rival Marine Le Pen. Her National Rally party staged a predicted but nevertheless – for Mr Macron – unsettling victory. Mr Macron has therefore called an urgent and surprising election.
It is a brave gamble to see off (he hopes) the far-right challenge but – as we will get to in a moment – Mr Macron’s decision may reveal that the European elections are not quite the far-right tidal wave that some of the more exaggerated headlines proclaim.
What is clear is that right-wing nationalist parties sceptical of, or hostile to, the EU have done well. Germany’s far right picked up votes but so did the equally anti-EU German far left.
In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban welcomed the election results of his party, Fidesz, with a tweet that could sum up some of the far-right reactions across Europe: “Stop migration! Stop gender! Stop war! Stop Soros! Stop Brussels!”
Soros is a reference to George Soros, the Hungarian-American billionaire philanthropist whom some on the far right love to hate. Migration, the debate about gender, a thinly disguised Islamophobia, and ending support for Ukraine in the war with Russia are also policies that tend to fire up enthusiasts in far-right parties across Europe, although hostility to “Brussels” – the EU itself – is mixed.
It is therefore worth being careful about reading too much into these far-right victory speeches.
In Mr Orban’s case, his ultra-nationalist party did receive the most votes (44 per cent) and will have 11 MEPs. That’s a success. But the vote share of Fidesz fell by 11 per cent compared to the 2022 Hungarian general election, and some calculate that these results actually suggest the party’s biggest loss of support in 18 years. In France, Mr Macron’s snap election gamble may also pay off. That’s because elections for the European Parliament have never been reliable as a guide to how elections to national parliaments will go. Turnout in this year’s continent-wide elections was 50 per cent.
The French elections, and the upcoming UK general election, can expect about 70 per cent of voters to go to the polls. The less enthusiastic 20 per cent of EU voters therefore can make a big difference if they turn out to elect their own national governments.
It is also true that far-right parties across Europe usually agree with Mr Orban on issues about migration. But Europe’s far right disagree profoundly on many other issues.
Some, including Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Ms Le Pen of France, are strong supporters of Ukraine. Mr Orban isn’t. The German far-right AfD party is so disliked by other far-right groups that it was not invited to a recent gathering in Madrid, a gathering attended by (among others) Ms Le Pen, Ms Meloni and Trump supporters and backers in America.
The picture of European politics therefore suggests voters are unhappy. Unhappy voters often merely want “change”, whatever that may mean for them. Yes, far-right parties across Europe are often doing better than at any time since before the Second World War.
Britain’s political disruptor, Nigel Farage, is now running the Reform UK party and is a candidate in the general election on July 4. But at our York conference and elsewhere, the big unknown is about the future for the disruptor-in-chief, Mr Trump. It’s a long road until November.
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
THE BIO
Age: 30
Favourite book: The Power of Habit
Favourite quote: "The world is full of good people, if you cannot find one, be one"
Favourite exercise: The snatch
Favourite colour: Blue
Fresh faces in UAE side
Khalifa Mubarak (24) An accomplished centre-back, the Al Nasr defender’s progress has been hampered in the past by injury. With not many options in central defence, he would bolster what can be a problem area.
Ali Salmeen (22) Has been superb at the heart of Al Wasl’s midfield these past two seasons, with the Dubai club flourishing under manager Rodolfo Arrubarrena. Would add workrate and composure to the centre of the park.
Mohammed Jamal (23) Enjoyed a stellar 2016/17 Arabian Gulf League campaign, proving integral to Al Jazira as the capital club sealed the championship for only a second time. A tenacious and disciplined central midfielder.
Khalfan Mubarak (22) One of the most exciting players in the UAE, the Al Jazira playmaker has been likened in style to Omar Abdulrahman. Has minimal international experience already, but there should be much more to come.
Jassim Yaqoub (20) Another incredibly exciting prospect, the Al Nasr winger is becoming a regular contributor at club level. Pacey, direct and with an eye for goal, he would provide the team’s attack an extra dimension.
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
The figures behind the event
1) More than 300 in-house cleaning crew
2) 165 staff assigned to sanitise public areas throughout the show
3) 1,000 social distancing stickers
4) 809 hand sanitiser dispensers placed throughout the venue
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Gifts exchanged
- King Charles - replica of President Eisenhower Sword
- Queen Camilla - Tiffany & Co vintage 18-carat gold, diamond and ruby flower brooch
- Donald Trump - hand-bound leather book with Declaration of Independence
- Melania Trump - personalised Anya Hindmarch handbag
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
Bugatti Chiron Super Sport - the specs:
Engine: 8.0-litre quad-turbo W16
Transmission: 7-speed DSG auto
Power: 1,600hp
Torque: 1,600Nm
0-100kph in 2.4seconds
0-200kph in 5.8 seconds
0-300kph in 12.1 seconds
Top speed: 440kph
Price: Dh13,200,000
Bugatti Chiron Pur Sport - the specs:
Engine: 8.0-litre quad-turbo W16
Transmission: 7-speed DSG auto
Power: 1,500hp
Torque: 1,600Nm
0-100kph in 2.3 seconds
0-200kph in 5.5 seconds
0-300kph in 11.8 seconds
Top speed: 350kph
Price: Dh13,600,000
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Australia tour of Pakistan
March 4-8: First Test, Rawalpindi
March 12-16: Second Test, Karachi
March 21-25: Third Test, Lahore
March 29: First ODI, Rawalpindi
March 31: Second ODI, Rawalpindi
April 2: Third ODI, Rawalpindi
April 5: T20I, Rawalpindi
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
