In 30 years, we haven’t seen anything like the impact the Gaza war is having on US voters

For Arab Americans, Israel ’s war on Palestinians in Gaza looms large and will play a significant role in November’s US presidential election. This is one of the key observations emerging from a nationwide poll of 500 Arab-American registered voters in mid-September, conducted by John Zogby Strategies for the Arab American Institute. A year of this devastating assault on Gaza has reshaped the Arab-American electorate , souring their attitude towards the Democratic Party, sapping their enthusiasm to vote in this election, and negatively affecting their inclination to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris. Since we first began polling Arab Americans 30 years ago, the community has consistently favoured the Democratic Party, with the margin of that support holding steady at nearly two to one for the past decade and a half. The Biden administration’s handling of the crisis in Gaza, however, has eroded that support resulting in Arab Americans now evenly divided between the two parties – 38.5 per cent for each. Equally revealing is the fact that by a slight margin (46 per cent to 44 per cent) voters in the community say they would prefer to see Republicans control the next Congress. Arab-American voter turnout has consistently been in the 80 per cent range. But this year only 63 per cent of the community say they are enthusiastic about voting in November, likely affecting voter turnout. All of this has taken a toll on Ms Harris’s prospects for winning Arab-American votes in her contest with former president Donald Trump. While US President Joe Biden won 59 per cent of the Arab-American vote in 2020, compared with 35 per cent for Mr Trump, this year’s poll shows that in a multi-candidate matchup, both candidates are in a virtual dead heat in the 41-42 per cent range. Ominously for Ms Harris, when only considering likely voters, Mr Trump leads 46 per cent to 42 per cent. While a few unscientific “polls” have suggested that a third-party candidate would garner a majority of the Arab-American vote, this AAI poll shows that to not be the case. All of the third-party candidates combined receive just 12 per cent of the Arab-American vote. Instead, Mr Trump is the beneficiary of the community’s anger and, I might add, even despair over the Biden administration’s failure in addressing the crisis in Gaza. This may be surprising given Mr Trump’s record and recent statements, but there are a few factors that may account for this development. On the one hand, it may be that as a result of the year-long trauma, there is a desire to punish Democrats. Additionally, it appears that despite Mr Trump’s dismal record with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and his total support for Israel’s aims in the war, the data from the AAI poll shows that sub-groups previously aligned with the Republican Party are returning to the fold and voting for that party’s candidate. All of which lends emphasis to the way the Gaza crisis has affected this election. Further evidence of Gaza’s role is the 81 per cent of Arab Americans who say that Gaza will be an important consideration in their vote. For example, when asked if Ms Harris were either to demand an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza or to withhold diplomatic support for and arms aid to Israel until it implements a ceasefire and withdraws its forces from Gaza, Ms Harris’s vote among Arab Americans would increase to around 62 per cent. This new Harris tally captures one-third of Trump voters, while virtually wiping out the votes that would go to the third-party candidates. If Mr Trump were to make the same demands on Israel, he too would benefit, increasing his vote tally to 56 per cent. This increased vote count for Mr Trump comes from one-quarter of Harris voters and one-half of the votes going to third-party candidates. While these measures are needed and important to end the war, announcing such a policy change in the midst of a campaign might be considered a heavy lift. Other less dramatic steps could have been taken to win more Arab-American support. For example, Ms Harris lost an important opportunity to send a message to Arab Americans demonstrating concern for Palestinians when her campaign refused to include a Palestinian American with family in Gaza to speak at the Democratic convention. When asked if it would have made a difference in how they would vote if the Harris campaign had invited a Palestinian American to speak, the response was a substantial “yes”. If the campaign had done so, Ms Harris’s vote tally from Arab Americans would have increased to 61 per cent. That moment was squandered, but others may still arise and if Ms Harris still wants Arab-American support, then these opportunities shouldn’t be passed over. In our 30 years of polling Arab-American voters, we haven’t witnessed anything like the role that the war on Gaza is having on voter behaviour. The year-long war in Gaza and the catastrophe now facing Lebanon has affected every component sub-group within the community, with only slight variations among religious communities and countries of origin, immigrant or native-born, gender and age groups. With a little over one month remaining before the US election, Arab Americans and, as our polls of US voters have shown, those who share their concerns (young and non-white voters) will be watching to see if their deeply felt concerns over Gaza, and now Lebanon, will be recognised and respected with a promise for change. Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza