From early, piecemeal reports, the White House meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump didn’t live up to expectations. From what we can gather from public comments, it featured some excessive displays of flattery. Mr Netanyahu announced that he was nominating Mr Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize and when asked about a two-state solution, after Mr Trump deferred to the “great man” from Israel to answer the question. Both say they want a ceasefire in Gaza, but what they want and what average Palestinians need are quite far apart.
There’s nothing new in this sad state of affairs. As the situation in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem worsens, the response of most nations to the Palestinians’ plight has been feckless. Instead of definitively condemning the killing and the occupation, the best they can muster are hollow and sometimes banal pronouncements urging the parties to negotiate (as if there were something about which to negotiate) or professions of their support for a two-state solution (as if that were even possible under the current circumstances).
This hasn’t stopped some from proposing “peace plans”, calling for international peacekeepers, a “reformed Palestinian Authority” and a disarming of Hamas. But these proposals also ignore two important realities: Israel’s rejection of every element of every plan put forward to date, and the fact that the Israeli occupation is so entrenched and has so distorted the realities on the ground in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem that the way forward to Palestinian independence has become far more complicated than it was at the time of the Oslo Accords.
To better understand where we are and what must be done, my polling company has been contracted by the Tony Blair Institute to conduct annual surveys in the occupied lands in order to assess Palestinian attitudes towards their current situation and their hopes for the future. What comes through quite clearly in these surveys is that the Palestinians in all three areas are in deep distress. As a result of the unique burdensome conditions Israel has imposed on them, there are distinct differences in the opinions of respondents in each area – towards their governance, the threats they face and their hopes for the future. These cannot be ignored.
For two decades, Gaza was severed from the rest of the Palestinian population and economically strangled by Israel, with Hamas being both punished and then rewarded by the Israeli government which sought to foster a division in Palestinian ranks. This was accomplished, enabling Hamas to grow in strength.
Israel’s war on Gaza has had devastating consequences for Palestinians. Our findings were able to quantify the magnitude of their losses. Almost two thirds report having been forced to evacuate their families four or more times in the first 18 months. Most have lost family members. Seventy per cent say that their homes have been totally destroyed, with majorities reporting extreme scarcity of food, water, medical services and adequate shelter.
The three-decades-long enforced closure of East Jerusalem has severed the city’s Palestinians from their compatriots in the rest of the occupied territories. Before the closure, Palestinians from the West Bank came to Jerusalem for employment and services. After it, Palestinians in East Jerusalem lost their customers, clients and income, and were forced to become incorporated into the Israeli economy. Since the October 7 attacks, our polls show majorities reporting heightened levels of economic and political distress.
There is also increased economic insecurity in the West Bank. Because Israeli policies drastically slowed independent economic development, the two largest sources of employment for Palestinians in the West Bank became the public sector – the Palestinian Authority (PA) – and jobs as day labourers in Israel or Israeli settlements. After the war, Israel suspended work permits and restricted the transfer of Palestinian tax revenues to the PA, forcing the PA to reduce salaries. As a result, there has been a tripling of unemployment in the West Bank and an increased impoverishment of the population.
What has also grown are the severity of threats experienced by Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, emanating from settler violence, home demolitions, land seizures, forced expulsions and raids from Israeli security forces. As a result, Palestinians report feeling increasingly threatened and insecure.
Our findings also demonstrate a Palestinian crisis of confidence in their own leadership. Palestinians in Gaza want little to do with Hamas, while those in the West Bank have diminished regard for the role of the PA. Gazans increasingly blame both Hamas and Israel for the war, and three quarters of West Bank Palestinians are dissatisfied with the PA’s overall performance in response to the conflict. The PA, which once conveyed the promise of a Palestinian future, has increasingly come to be seen as humiliated by Israel, or even as an agent of the occupation.
These factors combined define the crisis confronting Palestinians today. They know what they want – independence, security, an improved economy and improved services – but don’t see a clear path forward.
Flowing from this, our poll findings point to some disturbing signs of despair. When asked for their preferred strategies moving forward, the plurality of respondents in the West Bank and Gaza say they just want the situation to revert to pre-October 7 but with better paying jobs, and improved services and quality of life. And despite the finding that a majority of Gazans and a plurality of West Bank Palestinians still favour a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, almost two-thirds of respondents in all three areas say that, given current political conditions and facts on the ground, they believe the situation is now close to a one-state reality in which Israel controls Palestinians throughout Israel, the West Bank and Gaza.
The bottom line from our three years of polling is that the unique circumstances that Israel has imposed on Palestinians have created greater complexity in finding a path forward. Current efforts of the international community focus on what Palestinians must do. But the real threat to peace and stability is the Israeli government which has rejected any and all proposals that call for an end to their assault on Gaza, withdrawal of their forces, a role for the PA in Gaza and any suggestion that Palestinian independence or sovereignty be on the agenda.
It is this intransigence that must be addressed. Instead of placing the burden of reform solely on the Palestinians, the US, Western Europe and the Arab states should take concrete measures to force Israel to end its occupation, impose an international trusteeship with a peacekeeping force in the occupied territories and make a long-term commitment to assisting Palestinians in establishing representative governance in an independent sovereign state – all of which majorities or pluralities of Palestinians support.
