Last week, the US envoy for Lebanon, Morgan Ortagus, attended a session of the committee established to monitor the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire put in place almost a year ago. Ms Ortagus brought with her a proposal for how negotiations between the Lebanese and Israelis could proceed.
The ceasefire expanded the so-called Mechanism put in place after the July 2006 war. This is a co-ordination committee to supervise implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The ceasefire agreement added two new members – the US and France – to the tripartite format of Lebanon, Israel and Unifil, the UN force in southern Lebanon, that had been in place, with the US now presiding.
The Mechanism is made up mainly of military representatives, but the US and Israel want to widen this to include civilian representation. Ideally, both countries would like to lock Lebanon into a normalisation process with Israel, something the Lebanese reject for now. Their preference is for indirect negotiations, through the Americans, which is how Lebanon and Israel delineated their maritime border in October 2022.
Last March, Axios reported that Lebanon and Israel would soon establish working groups that would be “led by diplomats from the US, Israel and Lebanon” to address outstanding issues – demarcating the Lebanon-Israel land border, securing the release of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel and agreeing conditions for Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese areas it occupies. US officials were cited in the story.
On the Lebanese side, however, this was news. Lebanon had not agreed to participate in working groups headed by diplomats. According to Lebanese media reports, two months ago, Ron Dermer, Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister, asked the UN representative in Lebanon to convey to the Lebanese a proposal for direct talks. Their answer was the same: Lebanon would negotiate only through the Mechanism.
On her latest trip to Lebanon, Ms Ortagus floated a compromise. She asked the Lebanese to add civilians to the military team participating in the Mechanism. This came shortly after President Joseph Aoun, talking about the Gaza ceasefire deal on October 13, had said: “The general atmosphere today is one of settlements, therefore it is necessary to negotiate [with Israel]; as for the form of the negotiation, this will be determined at the [proper] time.”
Facing mounting pressure, including escalating Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon, senior Lebanese officials are said to have reached agreement on a median proposal: they would be willing to expand the military delegation to include civilians, who would participate in discussions on certain matters principally as technical advisers.
Lebanon has a narrow domestic margin of manoeuvre on the negotiating front. Faced with a Hezbollah refusal to speak directly with the Israelis, and similar opposition from Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, Mr Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have to thread a needle: liberating Lebanese land while not clashing with the Shiite parties, keeping the Americans onside and avoiding war with Israel.
The real question is whether the Israelis and Americans will accept the Lebanese compromise. From Lebanon’s perspective, the idea of having civilians advise military personnel harks back to the 1949 armistice agreement with Israel, when civilian technical advisers were used. What Hezbollah and Mr Berri oppose, however, is a format similar to the one that led to the May 17, 1983 Lebanon-Israel withdrawal agreement, when the Lebanese team was led by a retired diplomat.
For Lebanon, the idea of having civilians advise military personnel harks back to the 1949 armistice agreement with Israel, when civilian technical advisers were used
For Mr Berri, who at the time was an ally of Syria, the 1983 agreement was tantamount to a peace accord with Israel, making it unacceptable. It was and it wasn’t. The agreement stipulated that each country would not to be used as a base for hostile actions against the other and Lebanon agreed to set up a security region in the south in which Beirut would accept security arrangements. But it did not establish diplomatic ties, even if it set up a committee to address “the development of mutual relations”.
More important from Lebanon’s perspective at the time, the agreement created conditions for a full Israeli withdrawal from the country. Mr Aoun’s recent remarks showed he is aware that such an equation holds today, namely that Israel will demand a price for pulling its forces out of the south. The question is what?
Complicating matters is that Hezbollah, and above all Iran, are not willing to give anything up in Lebanon unless, or until, they receive something in exchange. Hezbollah’s inflexibility on surrendering its weapons is very much an effort to ensure Iran does not lose a valuable regional political card – one Tehran will try to use in negotiations with the Americans, but also with the Lebanese.
The only problem with this thinking is that the Israelis have no intention of granting Iran such latitude. This makes it more likely that, even if a new Israeli onslaught on Lebanon may not be imminent, further deadlock down the road in disarming Hezbollah will probably lead to a resumption of the war. The outcome of such a conflict would almost certainly be further Hezbollah concessions.
Why reach that stage? If Lebanon can derail a war by engaging the Israelis in talks on the land border, prisoners and an Israeli withdrawal, then it must consider this option. An end to cross-border conflict and security arrangements with Israel are not a peace deal, and no one ever accused Lebanon of making peace when they signed the armistice agreement. Any step that can restore that agreement, or an updated version of it, should be welcomed.
Whether it’s an officer or a civilian negotiating is irrelevant.
ABU DHABI ORDER OF PLAY
Starting at 10am:
Daria Kasatkina v Qiang Wang
Veronika Kudermetova v Annet Kontaveit (10)
Maria Sakkari (9) v Anastasia Potapova
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova v Ons Jabeur (15)
Donna Vekic (16) v Bernarda Pera
Ekaterina Alexandrova v Zarina Diyas
The Details
Kabir Singh
Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series
Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga
Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa
Rating: 2.5/5
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
How to vote
Canadians living in the UAE can register to vote online and be added to the International Register of Electors.
They'll then be sent a special ballot voting kit by mail either to their address, the Consulate General of Canada to the UAE in Dubai or The Embassy of Canada in Abu Dhabi
Registered voters mark the ballot with their choice and must send it back by 6pm Eastern time on October 21 (2am next Friday)
SECRET%20INVASION
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MATCH INFO
Chelsea 1 (Hudson-Odoi 90 1')
Manchester City 3 (Gundogan 18', Foden 21', De Bruyne 34')
Man of the match: Ilkay Gundogan (Man City)
If you go…
Emirates launched a new daily service to Mexico City this week, flying via Barcelona from Dh3,995.
Emirati citizens are among 67 nationalities who do not require a visa to Mexico. Entry is granted on arrival for stays of up to 180 days.
How to donate
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Studying addiction
This month, Dubai Medical College launched the Middle East’s first master's programme in addiction science.
Together with the Erada Centre for Treatment and Rehabilitation, the college offers a two-year master’s course as well as a one-year diploma in the same subject.
The move was announced earlier this year and is part of a new drive to combat drug abuse and increase the region’s capacity for treating drug addiction.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
'Shakuntala Devi'
Starring: Vidya Balan, Sanya Malhotra
Director: Anu Menon
Rating: Three out of five stars
INFO
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Top New Zealand cop on policing the virtual world
New Zealand police began closer scrutiny of social media and online communities after the attacks on two mosques in March, the country's top officer said.
The killing of 51 people in Christchurch and wounding of more than 40 others shocked the world. Brenton Tarrant, a suspected white supremacist, was accused of the killings. His trial is ongoing and he denies the charges.
Mike Bush, commissioner of New Zealand Police, said officers looked closely at how they monitored social media in the wake of the tragedy to see if lessons could be learned.
“We decided that it was fit for purpose but we need to deepen it in terms of community relationships, extending them not only with the traditional community but the virtual one as well," he told The National.
"We want to get ahead of attacks like we suffered in New Zealand so we have to challenge ourselves to be better."
Naga
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LIKELY TEAMS
South Africa
Faf du Plessis (captain), Dean Elgar, Aiden Markram, Hashim Amla, AB de Villiers, Quinton de Kock (wkt), Vernon Philander, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Morne Morkel, Lungi Ngidi.
India (from)
Virat Kohli (captain), Murali Vijay, Lokesh Rahul, Cheteshwar Pujara, Rohit Sharma, Ajinkya Rahane, Hardik Pandya, Dinesh Karthik (wkt), Ravichandran Ashwin, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Ishant Sharma, Mohammad Shami, Jasprit Bumrah.
RACE CARD
6.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh82.500 (Dirt) 1,400m
7.05pm Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m
7.40pm Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (Turf) 2,410m
8.15pm Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,900m
8.50pm UAE 2000 Guineas Trial (TB) Conditions Dh183,650 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm Dubai Trophy (TB) Conditions Dh183,650 (T) 1,200m
10pm Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (T) 1,400m
RESULTS
1.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,400m
Winner: Dirilis Ertugrul, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Ismail Mohammed (trainer)
2.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,400m
Winner: Kidd Malibu, Sandro Paiva, Musabah Al Muhairi
2.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,000m
Winner: Raakezz, Tadhg O’Shea, Nicholas Bachalard
3.15pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,200m
Winner: Au Couer, Sean Kirrane, Satish Seemar
3.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m
Winner: Rayig, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
4.15pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,600m
Winner: Chiefdom, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
4.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,800m
Winner: King’s Shadow, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
Related
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
- September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
- October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
- October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
- November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
- December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
- February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
PROFILE OF SWVL
Started: April 2017
Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport
Size: 450 employees
Investment: approximately $80 million
Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani
Saturday's results
West Ham 2-3 Tottenham
Arsenal 2-2 Southampton
Bournemouth 1-2 Wolves
Brighton 0-2 Leicester City
Crystal Palace 1-2 Liverpool
Everton 0-2 Norwich City
Watford 0-3 Burnley
Manchester City v Chelsea, 9.30pm
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
Results:
Men's 100m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 15 sec; 2. Rheed McCracken (AUS) 15.40; 3. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 15.75. Men's 400m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 50.56; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 50.94; 3. Henry Manni (FIN) 52.24.
Jebel Ali results
2pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner: AF Al Moreeb, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
2.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Shamikh, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard
3pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 64,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: One Vision, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
3.30pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Gabr, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson
4pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 96,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Just A Penny, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson
4.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Torno Subito, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 76,000 (D) 1,950m
Winner: Untold Secret, Jose Santiago, Salem bin Ghadayer
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The biog
Family: Parents and four sisters
Education: Bachelor’s degree in business management and marketing at American University of Sharjah
A self-confessed foodie, she enjoys trying out new cuisines, her current favourite is the poke superfood bowls
Likes reading: autobiographies and fiction
Favourite holiday destination: Italy
Posts information about challenges, events, runs in other emirates on the group's Instagram account @Anagowrunning
Has created a database of Emirati and GCC sportspeople on Instagram @abeermk, highlight: Athletes
Apart from training, also talks to women about nutrition, healthy lifestyle, diabetes, cholesterol, blood pressure
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S23%20ULTRA
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Everton 1 Stoke City 0
Everton (Rooney 45 1')
Man of the Match Phil Jagielka (Everton)
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Real Sociedad v Villarreal (10.15pm)
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match info
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Arsenal 2 (Nketiah 20', Willock 87')
Red card: Jack Stephens (Southampton)
Man of the match: Rob Holding (Arsenal)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
