For a woman with a reputation as a dour, pragmatic politician, Theresa May certainly has a sense of theatre.
Over the weekend, in an attempt to hammer out a compromise on the process of Britain exiting the European Union, she locked the cabinet in the grand British country house known as Chequers, had her allies tell the press that everyone would have their phones confiscated, and let it be known that anyone who resigned would have their official cars withdrawn and would have to walk ignominiously to the train station, trailed by the media.
Once a deal was agreed at the end of the day, Mrs May was first in front of the cameras to announce it, before the text had even been reviewed. It had the feel of a rather British coup.
Unfortunately, such careful choreography could not survive the weekend, and by Monday morning, the agreement began to unravel, with two of the most senior British ministers resigning and the possibility that the entire government might collapse. Mrs May's attempt to square the circle of the most divisive British policy in decades began to fall apart within days.
No British policy in recent years has had appended to it so many adjectives. “Hard Brexit”, “semi-Brexit”, “full-fat Brexit”. Yet all are a means of describing the proximity of Britain and the European Union once the two have parted ways.
Adhere too closely to EU rules and Brexiteers, those most committed to leaving the union, will say that Britain has not really left. Stray too far away from EU rules and some big businesses and even politicians within Mrs May’s own party fear the consequences could be severe.
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Almost the entirety of the political drama that has gripped the government over the past two years turns on where along that continuum Mrs May situates her policy.
At the weekend, she appeared to believe she had struck a balance to keep everyone happy, only for two of her most senior Brexiteers – David Davis, the man in charge of Brexit negotiations and Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary – to resign within hours of each other, saying the deal kept them too close to the EU.
Their principal objection is that the UK’s negotiating position would put it in the situation of having to accept laws drafted by the EU, without having any say on how they were drafted.
Yet such technical aspects of the negotiating position are less important for the moment than the drama of the personalities. Because so serious is the resignation of Mr Davis and Mr Johnson that it is possible a leadership challenge could be triggered. There is a very real possibility that this will be Mrs May's last week as prime minister.
The mechanism for replacing a sitting prime minister is complicated, but it would involve a vote of no confidence in Mrs May, followed by a leadership contest. Whether those opposed to her have the numbers to trigger the vote and – especially – the political bravery to do so will only known in a matter of days.
And yet she will probably survive, if only because of the timing. Parliament is only two weeks away from its six week summer recess and there is a crucial deadline for the EU in October. The Conservatives would prefer to avoid a long, hot summer of internal debate over the next leader, with the possibility of being unprepared for the October deadline, allowing the Labour opposition to characterise them as unfit for government.
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Moreover, Mrs May is in a strong position to win that leadership contest – and the British public, exhausted after two major votes in two years, is unlikely to look kindly on a summer of debate that simply led back to Mrs May in Downing Street.
Already Brexit-supporting newspapers like the Daily Mail are talking up the possibility of another election and the opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn entering Downing Street, and it is noticeable that staunch Brexiteers have been surprisingly conciliatory.
It has, however, only been two days. Just as the Brexit consensus unravelled over a weekend, by the end of this week the consensus around Mrs May could also have unravelled.
What is certain is that the Brexit debate will continue to dominate the minds of those running the country.
Seen from outside the UK, the carousel of personalities does not matter much. Boris Johnson was probably better known to foreign governments than his replacement Jeremy Hunt is, but the difference is negligible. Ultimately what foreign governments want is a leadership they can do business with, and a cabinet in constant turmoil, cycling through personalities, does not inspire confidence. Those advocating for Britain to leave the EU usually add they want the country to take a leading role in the world, but the Brexit debate has left little room to focus on anything else.
Last weekend, Mrs May looked like a woman back in charge. Today, she presides over a shaky cabinet. There will be many around the world who conclude the UK is too preoccupied with its own affairs, and simply look elsewhere for allies.
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
JOKE'S%20ON%20YOU
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Greatest Royal Rumble results
John Cena pinned Triple H in a singles match
Cedric Alexander retained the WWE Cruiserweight title against Kalisto
Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt win the Raw Tag Team titles against Cesaro and Sheamus
Jeff Hardy retained the United States title against Jinder Mahal
Bludgeon Brothers retain the SmackDown Tag Team titles against the Usos
Seth Rollins retains the Intercontinental title against The Miz, Finn Balor and Samoa Joe
AJ Styles remains WWE World Heavyweight champion after he and Shinsuke Nakamura are both counted out
The Undertaker beats Rusev in a casket match
Brock Lesnar retains the WWE Universal title against Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
Braun Strowman won the 50-man Royal Rumble by eliminating Big Cass last
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
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