National security adviser HR McMaster, pictured with US President Donald Trump, will be heading to Turkey to make clear his country's position on Syria / AP
National security adviser HR McMaster, pictured with US President Donald Trump, will be heading to Turkey to make clear his country's position on Syria / AP

The US could be heading towards another Cold War



US diplomacy will next week head to Arab capitals, Turkey and Europe, empowered by a doctrine of firm determination as the basis of any deals and accords, as if to declare that the “Make America Great Again” brigade will no longer show leniency to those whom it considers to be threats to American power and strategic interests. The US national security adviser HR McMaster, the most powerful figure in the Trump administration today, will head to Turkey to make explicit the limits of US and Nato patience vis-a-vis president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s adventures in Syria and his partnerships with Russia and Iran there. Mr McMaster and defence secretary James Mattis will also address Europe and the world at a security conference in Munich, the go-to place for launching strategies and cutting deals. US secretary of state Rex Tillerson will also visit Turkey as part of a tour that will take him to an Iraqi reconstruction conference in Kuwait and then Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon. Mr Tillerson will be raising a good few issues to inaugurate his new tack, fully in line with the faction that has prevailed in the Trump administration and is laying down the foundations of a new short and long-term strategy on anything from Russia, China and Iran to the Arab Gulf nations.

These visits come in conjunction with the return of a Cold War-like climate between the US and Russia, amid confusion over Israel’s intentions regarding Iran’s role in Syria and Lebanon, strains in relations among Turkey, Iran, and Russia, and the election season in Egypt, Iraq and Lebanon proceeding in full swing. The timing of the US diplomatic tours in the Middle East is therefore interesting, albeit the main focus remains Russia’s project in Syria, its Iranian dimension and the ramifications in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.

On the Turkish stop, US officials will focus on Ankara’s military operations in Afrin and Manbij and recent belligerent statements that threatened US forces in Syria and vowed to expand operations against the Kurds there. The stop coincides with efforts to salvage Turkey’s relations with Iran and further strengthen relations with Russia. Nato member Turkey is expected to receive a clear message from the American administration that it is intent on seeing through its new strategic vision and will not be making bargains like the previous administration had done. Indeed, the administration believes in cutting deals from a position of strength and is not prepared to cave to the priorities or special considerations of others.

Even with the European partners, US officials will tell the leading members of Nato that they are required to contribute more to cover the costs of the strategic partnership. This would include long-term training programs in Iraq, committing to sanctions on Iran and contributing to coalition operations in Syria against sites belonging to the regime, which Washington accuses of deploying chemical weapons in Idlib and Eastern Ghouta. What Mr McMaster and Mr Mattis will say in Munich will be of paramount importance, especially as it will be coupled with a new national defence strategy, whose main focus will be maintaining the US edge over Russia and China’s ascending militaries.

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Moscow has started to take seriously everything coming out of Washington under Mr Trump. Shortly after Mr Mattis told Congress the new US nuclear doctrine would seek to strengthen the negotiating hand of American diplomats to convince the Russians to stop violating the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, Moscow said it was prepared for a constructive dialogue with Washington on this issue. Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow does not want to escalate the situation and wants dialogue. However, while the US is not opposed to this, the problem lies in the basis of such a dialogue amid mutual distrust.

Unless Russia and the US reach an understanding, a Cold War blizzard will blow over the world, with the eye of the storm centred on Syria. Yet the main point of contention lies not in their bilateral relationship, where it is relatively easy to reach an accord over respect for mutual interests and the presence of US and Russian assets in Syria. Rather, the tension and divergence has widened because of the Iranian project in Syria, leading to an entanglement of interests as complicated as the Assad knot in the Vienna peace talks in 2015, hindering progress in Syria.

Moscow’s confusion stems from having to weigh the sensitive issue of abandoning allies, something it has long derided Washington for doing, against the pragmatic requirements of developing the crucial relationship with the US. Furthermore, Moscow does not want to lose its gains in Syria, a possibility if the Trump administration decides to fuel a war of attrition against its forces there. It is also possible to say that the US is interfering with the Russian elections, if only by preventing a total victory for Mr Putin in Syria, in an echo of the Soviet quagmire in Afghanistan. In broader strategic terms, the message from the White House to the Kremlin is that there is no possibility for Russia to regain its superpower status.

Even at the regional level, the Trump administration is making it clear to Moscow that the days of their former partner Barack Obama are over. No longer will Mr Lavrov be able to co-opt his American counterpart, as he had skilfully done with John Kerry. And now Mr Tillerson has rebranded himself based on the recipe he was given as a condition for keeping his post.

As he embarks on his Middle Eastern tour, the US secretary of state will not deviate from the administration’s strategy, doctrine and new rules of engagement. In Egypt, Jordan, and Kuwait, he will be among strategic partners but his visit to Lebanon will not be as easy.

Indeed, in Beirut he will deliver a firm message to the authorities, that while Lebanon’s security is important to Washington, a strategic decision has been made not to show Hezbollah leniency as long as it remains in a firm alliance with Iran. That is, the Lebanese leaders’ delicate alliances and Lebanon’s fragility will no longer be enough for the US to accept their compliance with Hezbollah’s dictats at home and its threats to US partners in the Gulf.

Mr Tillerson has just been in Argentina, where he launched a new effort to pursue Hezbollah’s activities in South America and will therefore not be engaging in bargains in Beirut. He will demand the political and financial authorities in Lebanon lift the cover of legitimacy from Hezbollah or otherwise face being included in Washington’s measures.

What is still not clear, however, is how Israel’s goals factor in. Israel is escalating on the ground against Iranian targets in Syria as well as over the issue of Iranian rockets in Hezbollah’s possession and is building a wall along the border with Lebanon. These developments are worrying and raise concerns regarding possible wars. The decision to go to war depends on whether Israel has concluded that the opportunity to get rid of Hezbollah’s rockets is more important than the de facto truce that largely governs the Iranian-Israeli dynamic. The answer to this can only lie with Israel and Iran.

Specs
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Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad

Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal 

Rating: 2/5

Emergency

Director: Kangana Ranaut

Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry 

Rating: 2/5

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Norwich City 0 Southampton 3 (Ings 49', Armstrong 54', Redmond 79')

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Our legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

SPECS

Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
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Label: Warner Records

Number of tracks: 11

Rating: 4/5

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It's up to you to go green

Nils El Accad, chief executive and owner of Organic Foods and Café, says going green is about “lifestyle and attitude” rather than a “money change”; people need to plan ahead to fill water bottles in advance and take their own bags to the supermarket, he says.

“People always want someone else to do the work; it doesn’t work like that,” he adds. “The first step: you have to consciously make that decision and change.”

When he gets a takeaway, says Mr El Accad, he takes his own glass jars instead of accepting disposable aluminium containers, paper napkins and plastic tubs, cutlery and bags from restaurants.

He also plants his own crops and herbs at home and at the Sheikh Zayed store, from basil and rosemary to beans, squashes and papayas. “If you’re going to water anything, better it be tomatoes and cucumbers, something edible, than grass,” he says.

“All this throwaway plastic - cups, bottles, forks - has to go first,” says Mr El Accad, who has banned all disposable straws, whether plastic or even paper, from the café chain.

One of the latest changes he has implemented at his stores is to offer refills of liquid laundry detergent, to save plastic. The two brands Organic Foods stocks, Organic Larder and Sonnett, are both “triple-certified - you could eat the product”.  

The Organic Larder detergent will soon be delivered in 200-litre metal oil drums before being decanted into 20-litre containers in-store.

Customers can refill their bottles at least 30 times before they start to degrade, he says. Organic Larder costs Dh35.75 for one litre and Dh62 for 2.75 litres and refills will cost 15 to 20 per cent less, Mr El Accad says.

But while there are savings to be had, going green tends to come with upfront costs and extra work and planning. Are we ready to refill bottles rather than throw them away? “You have to change,” says Mr El Accad. “I can only make it available.”

Europe’s rearming plan
  • Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
  • Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
  • Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
  • Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
  • Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Day 3 stumps

New Zealand 153 & 249
Pakistan 227 & 37-0 (target 176)

Pakistan require another 139 runs with 10 wickets remaining

COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3EFounder%3A%20Hani%20Abu%20Ghazaleh%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20with%20an%20office%20in%20Montreal%3Cbr%3EFounded%3A%202018%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Virtual%20Reality%3Cbr%3EInvestment%20raised%3A%20%241.2%20million%2C%20and%20nearing%20close%20of%20%245%20million%20new%20funding%20round%3Cbr%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%2012%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The results of the first round are as follows:

Qais Saied (Independent): 18.4 per cent

Nabil Karoui (Qalb Tounes): 15.58 per cent

Abdelfattah Mourou (Ennahdha party): 12.88 per cent

Abdelkarim Zbidi (two-time defence minister backed by Nidaa Tounes party): 10.7 per cent

Youssef Chahed (former prime minister, leader of Long Live Tunisia): 7.3 per cent

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
 
Started: 2021
 
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
 
Based: Tunisia 
 
Sector: Water technology 
 
Number of staff: 22 
 
Investment raised: $4 million 
Three ways to limit your social media use

Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.

1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.

2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information. 

3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.

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THE SPECS

Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine 

Power: 420kW

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Transmission: 8-speed automatic

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