For a country trying to write a new chapter in its history, Lebanon faces an array of formidable challenges. While Israel continues to carry out air strikes and occupy Lebanese territory in the south, the new government in Beirut is trying to exert its authority nationwide – including in areas where its writ does not currently run.
This difficult process is an important part of the country’s efforts to recover and prosper. As Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said in a keynote address to the Arab Media Summit in Dubai yesterday: “Our country, exhausted by divisions, wars and patronage systems, has decided to regain itself, to regain its word, to regain its state”.
A prime example of this challenge to the state is to be found inside Lebanon's 12 official Palestinian refugee camps. Located from Tripoli in the north to Tyre in the south, these poverty-stricken communities are home to more than 200,000 Palestinians displaced or born in exile owing to their expulsion from their homeland in previous decades by Israeli forces. Outside state control, these areas have been ruled by an array of armed factions since the 1969 Cairo Agreement, which ceded responsibility for their security to the Palestine Liberation Organisation. An informal understanding prohibits Lebanese security forces from even entering the camps.
Generations later, this arrangement has added to instability within Lebanon. Some camps have become victims of outlaws, drug traffickers and extremists deciding to hide in plain sight there. Rival groups have clashed repeatedly; in September 2023, more than 2,000 people were displaced in Ain Al Hilweh – Lebanon’s largest refugee camp – as Palestinian factions and armed extremists fought with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades.
This would be an intolerable situation for any country, especially one as volatile as Lebanon. On Monday, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun announced that a process to disarm Palestinian refugee camps will begin in mid-June. It will be a difficult task, and may not proceed on that time table. Lebanon’s underfunded armed forces have a matter of weeks to bring the situation under control and reverse decades of entrenched support for armed groups with their own political agendas and, in some cases, foreign support.
There are also deeper issues to be reckoned with. The broken situation in the camps is born out of Israel’s continuing occupation of Palestinian land. Palestinians in Lebanon want to go to their homeland, not live a shadow existence on the fringes of Lebanese society. At the same time, Israel’s bombardment and starvation of Palestinians in Gaza provides a difficult and sensitive context for Beirut’s attempt to bring Palestinian weapons under control.
Palestinians in Lebanon want to go home, not live a shadow existence on the fringes of Lebanese society
The Palestinian Authority President, Mahmoud Abbas, met Mr Aoun in Beirut last week, and is seeking to co-ordinate the disarmament. But for the plan to have the greatest chance of success, it must be made clear that it is not about disempowering Palestinians or enabling one faction to dominate other – it is about restoring Lebanese sovereignty and stability.
There will be those who will regard this process as a litmus test for how to handle another armed organisation outside state in control in Lebanon, namely Hezbollah. But the situation regarding the Iran-backed group has a different dynamic that does not allow for a one-size-fits-all solution.
Nevertheless, the principle behind disarming Lebanon’s many militias is key: that a country’s legitimate government holds the monopoly over armed force. As Serhan Serhan, a member of the PA’s Legislative Council and deputy secretary of Mr Abbas's Fatah faction in Lebanon said recently: "We are all under the ceiling of Lebanese law." If this is true, then there should be no room for any one faction to bring the house down.
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Sui Dhaaga: Made in India
Director: Sharat Katariya
Starring: Varun Dhawan, Anushka Sharma, Raghubir Yadav
3.5/5
England's all-time record goalscorers:
Wayne Rooney 53
Bobby Charlton 49
Gary Lineker 48
Jimmy Greaves 44
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Tom Finney 30
Nat Lofthouse 30
Alan Shearer 30
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Frank Lampard 29
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
War
Director: Siddharth Anand
Cast: Hrithik Roshan, Tiger Shroff, Ashutosh Rana, Vaani Kapoor
Rating: Two out of five stars
The specs
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- Option 2: 50% across three years
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Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
