As the international community comes together today in the Amazon city of Belem for the Cop30 UN climate change summit, it does so in a somewhat jaded spirit. Dozens of countries have failed to update pledges on cutting emissions and the 2015 Paris Agreement’s aim of limiting global temperature rises to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels looks increasingly difficult to achieve.
This hesitancy is in contrast to some earlier Cop summits. Nearly two years ago, almost 200 countries, energy companies and climate campaigners meeting in Dubai achieved a great deal. After gruelling negotiations, thousands of delegates were, among other things, able to mobilise more than $85 billion in funding, establish a Loss and Damage Fund for poorer countries affected by climate change and persuaded 52 oil companies to agree to exacting decarbonisation goals.
Just as significantly, the UAE Consensus that emerged from Cop28 put hope and optimism back into the climate conversation. It did so by getting countries to agree to an “unprecedented reference” to transitioning away from all fossil fuels with a target of achieving net zero emissions by 2050. A clear path ahead was laid.
Since then, the conversation has changed – as has the context surrounding climate change efforts. Two years ago, much of the global economy was expanding thanks to a post-Covid boom fuelled by an accompanying injection of public money into national economies. Countries believed that climate action could be funded as a national priority. Fast forward to 2025, however, and things look quite different.
Many economies are slowing and there is more global public debt – more than $100 trillion according to the UN. Myriad other distractions, such as major armed conflicts, polarised politics and a dizzyingly fast news cycle, have all contributed to climate change’s slip down the global agenda. It is in this subdued atmosphere that delegates are meeting in Brazil.
It is clear that the climate issue needs an injection of momentum. One way to do so is by bringing the can-do spirit seen in Dubai to key issues on the Cop30 agenda, such as a new fund to help protect forests and measures on adapting to climate change. Another important step would be to reframe the issue of climate change itself; instead of labelling it solely as green politics or environmentalism, countries should view global warming as a foreign, economic, security and development priority. Doing so would institutionalise climate as a standalone policy, less subject to changes in government or economic ups and downs.
Sustaining optimism around the climate agenda is difficult, even in the face of relatively positive news. Although the UN Environment Programme’s recent Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target found that the world was failing to fulfil some critical climate goals, it also said that progress on reducing emissions was being made. In addition, the report stated that “the required low-carbon technologies to deliver big emission cuts are available” along with “booming” wind and solar energy development. “This means the international community can accelerate climate action, should they choose to do so,” it concluded.
Those attending Cop30 over the next 11 days have a responsibility not only to push policy decisions forward – they must also give beleaguered and distracted people around that world the belief that the climate situation can be turned about. Hope was the valuable lesson learnt by the international community in Dubai two years ago and it remains as important today.
