Earlier this week, the newly elected Tunisian parliament was sworn in. The oath-taking symbolised a great deal because its backdrop is a story of inclusiveness and pluralism. But there are enormous challenges as well. All of which are mirrored throughout the country as a whole and the Arab region, four years after the Arab uprisings began. As the presidential run-off election appears on the horizon, and security continues to be a challenge, it may be time to take stock of how far Tunisia has come as well as the difficulties of the road ahead.
Let us rewind a little. The results of the Tunisian elections earlier this year brought into being an incredibly diverse Arab parliament that reflected a truly broad base of political affiliations. Secularists, liberals, moderate Islamists, supporters of the former dictatorship of Ben Ali, socialists, and others will sit together in a single parliament. No faction will dominate. Indeed, the strongest group, Nidaa Tunis, is a motley crew of various non/anti-Islamist strands. It won the most seats but cannot be said to bestride the political landscape. The very existence of such a uniquely pluralistic parliament is perhaps a first in the contemporary Arab world. That is a success story in and of itself.
The new parliamentarians swore the oath on the constitution of the Tunisian Republic. That was, again, a first. The constitution, of course, is a first, having been written in a fashion that is quite rare, not just in the Arab world, but globally. This is a constitution that is pluralistic and progressive in content. It was written using a consensus-based process. There were various trends that brought that process to a successful conclusion. One of these was the Ennahdha Party, which was the single strongest political force before the parliamentary elections. Ennahdha can justly be proud of its achievement.
All of this is good news, but many challenges remain in this relatively small but remarkably impressive North African country. There is one more hurdle for the country to overcome in its transition from dictatorship to democracy, and then the real work can begin.
That hurdle is the completion of the presidential election. A run-off is due later this month between the sitting interim president, Moncef Marzouki, and Beji Caid Essebsi, a former senior official in the Ben Ali and Bourguiba administrations. This is an important race. If Mr Essebsi wins, the new president will not only represent a link to Tunisia’s pre-revolutionary past, but whose party, Nidaa Tunis, will be the biggest in the legislature as well.
However, if victory goes to Mr Marzouki, a noted human rights defender, Tunisia will have a president who could never have entered the highest levels of public life without a pro-democracy revolutionary uprising. The symbolism of that cannot be underestimated.
Whoever the winner, he will have two serious problems on his hands. The risk of polarisation is very real; indeed, it might even worsen because of the presidential election. Tunisians have already seen their most senior political figures trade insults about allegations of support from corrupt, dictatorial forces or radical jihadists. Some of the allegations have been amusing.
Tunisians also continue to face an enormous security challenge, one that claims innocent lives and which resulted in the beheading of a policeman earlier this week by radical Islamist extremists. It is important for Tunisia to be able to stand firm and united, even as diversity thrives. This is not an impossible task, but it will test the health of Tunisia’s democratic experiment. There seems to be no other alternative; every other course of action is likely to be for the worse.
There is one other significant challenge – the notion of accountability for the failings of previous authorities. In this, Mr Marzouki, whether he becomes president or not, will be a great asset to the country. Unlike many others in positions of authority in Tunisia, he has first-hand experience of South Africa’s transition from apartheid to democracy. He has studied and understands notions of transitional justice and reconciliation. If Tunisia can successfully navigate a similar process of transparency and accountability, then it will have much to be proud of – and the Arab world will have much to learn from Tunisia.
Dr HA Hellyer is an associate fellow of the Royal United Services Institute in London, and the Centre for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC
Twitter: @hahellyer
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
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Ticket prices
- Golden circle - Dh995
- Floor Standing - Dh495
- Lower Bowl Platinum - Dh95
- Lower Bowl premium - Dh795
- Lower Bowl Plus - Dh695
- Lower Bowl Standard- Dh595
- Upper Bowl Premium - Dh395
- Upper Bowl standard - Dh295
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Results:
Men's wheelchair 800m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 1.44.79; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 1.45.88; 3. Isaac Towers (GBR) 1.46.46.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
