After Austin, the season feels alive again with that race firmly redrawing the contours of the championship. Max Verstappen’s increasing authority continues to threaten those ahead of him, McLaren faltered when it mattered most, and Ferrari finally looked competitive again.
What had started to feel predictable is suddenly wide open. Momentum has shifted, confidence has cracked, and Mexico City now looms as another test of who can keep their composure when it matters most. Here are the key talking points looking ahead to Mexico City’s Grand Prix:
Can Verstappen really do it?
Four races ago, Verstappen dismissed any talk of a title fight. “It’s a lot,” he said after Baku, still 69 points behind McLaren's Oscar Piastri. “I would need to be perfect on my side and have a lot of luck too.”
Now, heading to Mexico this weekend, the tone has changed. After sweeping the Sprint, pole and Grand Prix in Austin, his most complete weekend of the season, the Red Bull driver is just 40 points adrift. “For sure, the chance is there,” he said in Texas. “We just need to try to deliver these kind of weekends to the end. Of course we know we need to be perfect, but we will try.”
The upgrades introduced at Monza, most notably a revised floor and front wing, gave the car back its sense of balance and precision. For much of the summer, Verstappen had wrestled with a machine that refused to turn the way he demanded. Now the RB21 bends to his will. Under new team principal Laurent Mekies, whose engineering background has sharpened Red Bull’s feedback loop, Verstappen’s influence on development is clearer than ever.
Since those changes, he has won three of the last four races and finished on the podium five times in a row. But the Red Bull isn’t the fastest car on the grid. McLaren’s pace over one lap still looks threatening, and Lando Norris might have challenged for victory in Texas had he not been trapped behind Charles Leclerc for 40 laps.
Race commentary caught the sense of dread that Verstappen’s brilliance can awaken in his rivals. “He’s done it again, hasn’t he? He’s done it again,” exclaimed Martin Brundle.
David Croft, watching Verstappen climb from his car, offered the image of the season. “I keep getting reminded of that scene in Jurassic Park, two people in a Jeep trying to escape the dinosaurs, and there’s your T-rex, ladies and gentlemen. Lando and Oscar are in the Jeep.”
Verstappen has momentum and now the belief to clinch a fifth title and if he manages it, would this be his greatest Championship victory?
Piastri’s lead narrows as McLaren wobble
Austin could yet be remembered as a turning point in the 2025 season. McLaren’s weekend unravelled when both cars crashed out of the Sprint on the opening lap, a mistake that spoke to youth and pressure colliding at the very moment Verstappen’s composure and experience have come to the fore.
For leader Piastri, it was another subdued outing. Clipped by Nico Hulkenberg in the Sprint and sent into teammate Lando Norris, the Australian left empty-handed on Saturday and could manage only fifth in the Grand Prix from sixth on the grid. His advantage over Norris and Verstappen has shrunk, and he has now gone three races without a podium.
“My mentality hasn’t changed,” Piastri said. “I’m just trying to do the best job I can every weekend and naturally, the results will take care of themselves.” Yet his frustration was visible: “This weekend I just haven’t gelled with the car at all.”
The gap at the top may still exist, but its security has vanished. Piastri insists he can win the championship, drawing confidence from his junior-series battles where he prevailed under pressure in Formula 2 and Formula 3. Yet those campaigns were fought on level terms, not against a four-time world champion with Red Bull’s resources and race-day precision. McLaren’s once smooth season has begun to fray.
Norris and Piastri must deliver near perfect weekends with clean laps, solid strategy and no mistakes if the team is to keep its grip on the championship and ensure the T-rex doesn’t devour their dreams.
Ferrari's momentum
Ferrari will arrive in Mexico with a renewed sense of momentum after their most convincing weekend of the season. A third and fourth-place finish at the Circuit of The Americas lifted the Scuderia back into contention for second in the Constructors’ standings, just seven points behind Mercedes, and hinted that Fred Vasseur’s push for a more aggressive mindset is starting to pay off.
Leclerc’s podium ended a six-race wait for a top three finish and marked Ferrari’s first since Belgium. His decision to start on soft tyres reflected the team’s willingness to take calculated risks. Leclerc’s early overtake on Norris and disciplined defence in the opening laps showed a driver and car finally working in harmony.
Lewis Hamilton will also travel to Mexico encouraged. Fourth place in both the Sprint and the Grand Prix represented his most competitive weekend in Ferrari colours.
Sainz handed grid penalty
Carlos Sainz’s strong run with Williams has been halted by a five-place grid penalty. The Spaniard, who finished third in the Austin Sprint to give Williams their best result in the format, was deemed at fault for a collision with Mercedes rookie Kimi Antonelli and will start lower this weekend.
Stewards ruled Sainz “predominantly to blame” and added two penalty points to his licence. The setback ends a run that included a podium in Singapore and steady points since the summer break, pausing the momentum that had made him one of the season’s standout performers.
