Something very bad has happened to the climate. Across the world, people are struggling to cope with extremes of weather that threaten their survival. Deaths from famine and disease are soaring, and it is clear that disaster looms unless the current climatic upheaval ends.
No, it is not another grim communique from the climate change conference in Copenhagen: it is a summary of what was starting to happen to our planet exactly 200 years ago. And back then it was not global warming that threatened mankind, but the precise opposite. From 1809 onward, our entire planet was plunged into a decade-long Ice Age which devastated communities from Canada through Europe to China. The exact toll in human lives will never be known, but an estimated 200,000 died in Europe alone during the depths of the crisis in 1816 - the "year without a summer".
At least there has been little doubt about the cause. The finger of blame is usually pointed at Mt Tambora, a still-active volcano in Indonesia that exploded in 1815 in the most powerful eruption of modern times. The blast injected billions of tonnes of debris into the atmosphere, the resulting veil of dust cutting the level of the Sun's heat reaching the Earth's surface, and triggering global cooling.
All very neat and tidy. But new research has now revealed a twist to the tale - and a new mystery. According to an international team of scientists, analysis of climate records shows that the global cooling actually began around five years before Mt Tambora blew up. It thus seems something else must have been involved; but what?
The obvious suspect is another volcanic eruption. Certainly, the early 19th century did seem to have been afflicted by a plague of the events: between 1812 and 1814 no fewer than four volcanoes erupted at sites as far afield as the Caribbean and Japan. Yet they were all relatively minor events - and the timing is still wrong in any case.
A search of the historical record for eyewitness reports of an eruption or weird atmospheric effects around 1810 has also come up empty. The absence of such evidence does not imply evidence of absence: the explosion may just have happened in some remote part of the world.
What is certain is that any eruption capable of disrupting the climate must have injected a huge amount of dust high into the atmosphere - and what goes up must come down. This prompted Professor Jihong Cole-Dai of South Dakota State University and his colleagues to look for a telltale sign of an eruption around 1810 in samples of polar ice.
Now they have found it, in the form of sulphur trapped in ice-cores extracted from the ice-caps of Greenland and Antarctica. The exact characteristics of their discovery are highly significant. First, analysis of the sulphur revealed anomalous amounts of a certain isotope, implying that it had interacted with air in the stratosphere - which only truly colossal eruptions can reach. Second, the discovery of the anomaly at ice-core levels corresponding to the same date point to a single event. Using ice-core data for the Mt Tambora event, the team estimates that the earlier eruption took place in 1809, possibly in February of that year.
But where did it happen? Reporting their findings in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, Prof Cole-Dai and his colleagues argue that the discovery of the sulphur anomaly at both poles points to a location somewhere in the tropics - the only part of the world from which dust can travel to both Greenland and Antarctica.
Yet this serves only to deepen the mystery of the eruption of 1809, as it seems incredible that a colossal explosion in so populous a part of the world could have gone unreported.
In the case of Mt Tambora, the explosion killed tens of thousands locally, generated a tsunami that killed thousands more across Indonesia, and was heard more than 2,000km away. An eruption as violent as that which seems to have taken place in 1809 would surely have done more than merely generate some dust at the poles.
Clearly, some more detective work is needed to solve the mystery of the 1809 eruption. Whatever is found, the disastrous events of the subsequent decade underline the swift, global and ineluctable climatic influence of volcanoes.
It is a phenomenon attracting increasing interest among researchers trying to fathom the evolution of modern humans. Most palaeo-anthropologists believe that Homo sapiens spread across the globe after leaving Africa around 70,000 years ago. What is not clear, however, is precisely why these early humans left their homeland.
One possibility is that they were driven out by climate change, which made parts of Africa inhospitable. This version of the so-called Out of Africa Hypothesis has been bolstered by studies of Lake Toba in Sumatra - the site of the largest eruption on Earth in the last 2.5 million years.
Like Mt Tambora, this Indonesian volcano blasted colossal amounts of dust into the air, triggering a plunge in global temperatures of as much as 5°C. And according to geologists, what has been called the Toba Catastrophe took place around 74,000 years ago - right in line with the Out of Africa date.
According to some researchers, the resulting climatic upheaval was so terrible that the human race may have been pushed to the brink of extinction. Others insist that Homo sapiens was smart enough by then to adapt to the dire conditions.
It is a debate with echoes that can be heard this week in Copenhagen. Some believe global warming threatens the very survival of Homo sapiens; others argue we can adapt. At Copenhagen, most are pushing for measures to tackle the root cause, by restricting greenhouse gases.
With volcanic eruptions, that is not an option. No amount of technology or legislation can prevent a future Mt Tambora event. When one strikes, we will have no choice but to do as we did exactly 200 years ago, and just get through it.
Robert Matthews is Visiting Reader in Science at Aston University, Birmingham, England
On the menu
First course
▶ Emirati sea bass tartare Yuzu and labneh mayo, avocado, green herbs, fermented tomato water
▶ The Tale of the Oyster Oyster tartare, Bahraini gum berry pickle
Second course
▶ Local mackerel Sourdough crouton, baharat oil, red radish, zaatar mayo
▶ One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest Quail, smoked freekeh, cinnamon cocoa
Third course
▶ Bahraini bouillabaisse Venus clams, local prawns, fishfarm seabream, farro
▶ Lamb 2 ways Braised lamb, crispy lamb chop, bulgur, physalis
Dessert
▶ Lumi Black lemon ice cream, pistachio, pomegranate
▶ Black chocolate bar Dark chocolate, dates, caramel, camel milk ice cream
SQUADS
Bangladesh (from): Shadman Islam, Mominul Haque, Soumya Sarkar, Shakib Al Hasan (capt), Mahmudullah Riyad, Mohammad Mithun, Mushfiqur Rahim, Liton Das, Taijul Islam, Mosaddek Hossain, Nayeem Hasan, Mehedi Hasan, Taskin Ahmed, Ebadat Hossain, Abu Jayed
Afghanistan (from): Rashid Khan (capt), Ihsanullah Janat, Javid Ahmadi, Ibrahim Zadran, Rahmat Shah, Hashmatullah Shahidi, Asghar Afghan, Ikram Alikhil, Mohammad Nabi, Qais Ahmad, Sayed Ahmad Shirzad, Yamin Ahmadzai, Zahir Khan Pakteen, Afsar Zazai, Shapoor Zadran
Name: Colm McLoughlin
Country: Galway, Ireland
Job: Executive vice chairman and chief executive of Dubai Duty Free
Favourite golf course: Dubai Creek Golf and Yacht Club
Favourite part of Dubai: Palm Jumeirah
Uefa Nations League: How it Works
The Uefa Nations League, introduced last year, has reached its final stage, to be played over five days in northern Portugal. The format of its closing tournament is compact, spread over two semi-finals, with the first, Portugal versus Switzerland in Porto on Wednesday evening, and the second, England against the Netherlands, in Guimaraes, on Thursday.
The winners of each semi will then meet at Porto’s Dragao stadium on Sunday, with the losing semi-finalists contesting a third-place play-off in Guimaraes earlier that day.
Qualifying for the final stage was via League A of the inaugural Nations League, in which the top 12 European countries according to Uefa's co-efficient seeding system were divided into four groups, the teams playing each other twice between September and November. Portugal, who finished above Italy and Poland, successfully bid to host the finals.
Arabian Gulf League fixtures:
Friday:
- Emirates v Hatta, 5.15pm
- Al Wahda v Al Dhafra, 5.25pm
- Al Ain v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 8.15pm
Saturday:
- Dibba v Ajman, 5.15pm
- Sharjah v Al Wasl, 5.20pm
- Al Jazira v Al Nasr, 8.15pm
The biog
Full name: Aisha Abdulqader Saeed
Age: 34
Emirate: Dubai
Favourite quote: "No one has ever become poor by giving"
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Asia Cup Qualifier
Final
UAE v Hong Kong
TV:
Live on OSN Cricket HD. Coverage starts at 5.30am
EGYPT SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Ahmed El Shennawy, Mohamed El Shennawy, Mohamed Abou-Gabal, Mahmoud Abdel Rehem "Genesh"
Defenders: Ahmed Elmohamady, Ahmed Hegazi, Omar Gaber, Ali Gazal, Ayman Ahsraf, Mahmoud Hamdy, Baher Elmohamady, Ahmed Ayman Mansour, Mahmoud Alaa, Ahmed Abou-Elfotouh
Midfielders: Walid Soliman, Abdallah El Said, Mohamed Elneny, Tarek Hamed, Mahmoud “Trezeguet” Hassan, Amr Warda, Nabil Emad
Forwards: Ahmed Ali, Mohamed Salah, Marwan Mohsen, Ahmed "Kouka" Hassan.
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 6 Huddersfield Town 1
Man City: Agüero (25', 35', 75'), Jesus (31'), Silva (48'), Kongolo (84' og)
Huddersfield: Stankovic (43')
The biog
Name: Capt Shadia Khasif
Position: Head of the Criminal Registration Department at Hatta police
Family: Five sons and three daughters
The first female investigator in Hatta.
Role Model: Father
She believes that there is a solution to every problem
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 1 (Rashford 36')
Liverpool 1 (Lallana 84')
Man of the match: Marcus Rashford (Manchester United)
TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
Banned items
Dubai Police has also issued a list of banned items at the ground on Sunday. These include:
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Political flags or banners
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Bikes, skateboards or scooters
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
A Dog's Journey
Directed by: Gail Mancuso
Starring: Dennis Quaid, Josh Gad, Marg Helgenberger, Betty Gilpin, Kathryn Prescott
3 out of 5 stars
Ready Player One
Dir: Steven Spielberg
Starring: Tye Sheridan, Olivia Cooke, Ben Mendelsohn, Mark Rylance
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
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Analysis
Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
MATCH STATS
Wolves 0
Aston Villa 1 (El Ghazi 90 4' pen)
Red cards: Joao Moutinho (Wolves); Douglas Luiz (Aston Villa)
Man of the match: Emi Martinez (Aston Villa)
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