Climate change is the most controversial scientific issue of our time - and small wonder, given its potential impact on everything from geography to geopolitics. Health experts commissioned by the leading medical journal The Lancet have just declared climate change to be "the biggest global health threat of the 21st century".
Yet while concern about the impact of global warming shows no sign of ending, the phenomenon itself seems to have done so. Or at least, that is what sceptics of climate change have been saying for some time now - to the intense irritation of many scientists. And the sceptics do seem to have a point: measurements suggest the warming trend ended as long ago as 1998, with global temperatures being more or less constant ever since.
Scientists have insisted that the fallacy in the claim lies in portraying global warming as like heating water on a stove. The response of the Earth's atmosphere to increasing levels of greenhouse gases - the driving force of global warming - is so complex that there are bound to be blips in the overall trend. Indeed, many such blips appear in the otherwise upward trend in temperature over the years - between 1983 and 1985, for example, or between 1990 and 1995.
Only the most determined climate change denier would seize on just a couple of years of stasis to claim global warming has ended. But that still leaves the question of how long is long enough? Is the current decade-long pause just another blip, or the sign of something more significant?
Measurements of global temperature over the past century do little to shed light on the question. Over that time, emissions of carbon dioxide - claimed to be the prime source of man-made global warming - have grown inexorably and exponentially. The response of the Earth's climate, in contrast, has been all over the place. Global temperatures actually fell in the first decade of the 20th century, then increased during the 1920s and 1930s, fell again from the 1940s to the mid 1970s, then soared until the late 1990s, since when they have been static.
For sceptics, all this is clear evidence that there's no real link between man-made greenhouse gases and global warming. Climatologists, meanwhile, point to the 1°C increase over the 20th century as proof that the link exists, albeit in complex form - and is quite capable of producing periods of stasis or even cooling.
So who is right? If the complexity argument has any merit, computer models of the supposed link between greenhouse gases and global temperatures should be able to reproduce the bizarre variability seen in the real-life data. Now Dr David Easterling, of the US National Climatic Data Center, North Carolina, and Dr Michael Wehner, of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, California, have put this to the test.
The results, recently published in Geophysical Research Letters, show that steadily increasing greenhouse gas levels can indeed lead to periods of stasis or even cooling of the planet lasting a decade or more. Or, to be precise, they can do so under 20th century conditions. For the researchers went further, examining the link between greenhouse gas levels and global temperature during the 21st century. They found that as the levels increase, periods of static temperatures or cooling become progressively unlikely. So it seems that the current controversy about the role of man-made global warming may soon be put beyond doubt: if climatologists are right, we will soon start to see global temperature records being broken every few years.
It is already clear, however, that it would be foolhardy to take comfort even from a decade of static global temperatures. It may well prove to be merely a period of respite before temperatures soar again. How long we have before they kick in depends on those complex interactions that muddy the link between greenhouse gases and global temperatures. Understanding these is clearly crucial, and some important insights have now been uncovered by professors Kyle Swanson and Anastasios Tsonis of the University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee.
They have been focusing on patterns of atmospheric and oceanic conditions blamed for dramatic weather events worldwide. The best known is the notorious El Nino effect, in which a vast region of the tropical Pacific warms up, triggering torrential rain thousands of kilometres away. Climatologists have identified other such patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), an atmospheric effect which influences Europe's winters: cold and dry when the NAO is in one state, mild and wet when in another.
Despite their importance for weather forecasting, predicting these patterns remains a major challenge. They are not random, but nor are they as regular as clockwork: the El Nino effect takes place at anything from three- to eight-year intervals. But what is clear is that every so often the patterns can come into synch with one another - with global consequences.
By analysing past climate data, professors Swanson and Tsonis have discovered that El Nino, the NAO and two other patterns came into synch four times in the past century, in periods centred around 1915, 1941, 1958 and 1979. Intriguingly, all but the third of these dates marked major changes in global climate, with cooling turning into warming or vice versa.
According to Swanson and Tsonis, this suggests that changes in the Earth's climate lasting a decade or more may be presaged by these patterns coming into synchrony. And as it happens, the last time they did that was around 2001 - just when the warming trend started to level out. Thus this new research backs the findings of Easterling and Wehner, which suggest the current stasis in global temperatures is only temporary.
Reporting their findings in Geophysical Research Letters, Swanson and Tsonis warn of the dangers of extrapolating from events in the 20th century: since then, greenhouse gas levels have increased dramatically, and could alter the link between these patterns and future climate. This, too, is in line with the work of Easterling and Wehner, who found that the future climate is much less likely to offer any respite from warming.
Thus we may be living through the final lull before global warming really takes off. When this window of opportunity for action will end is anyone's guess, but these new findings suggest we are already a decade into it - and shouldn't count getting any more.
Robert Matthews is Visiting Reader in Science at Aston University, Birmingham, England
Men from Barca's class of 99
Crystal Palace - Frank de Boer
Everton - Ronald Koeman
Manchester City - Pep Guardiola
Manchester United - Jose Mourinho
Southampton - Mauricio Pellegrino
The biog
Age: 46
Number of Children: Four
Hobby: Reading history books
Loves: Sports
MATCH INFO
Pakistan 106-8 (20 ovs)
Iftikhar 45, Richardson 3-18
Australia 109-0 (11.5 ovs)
Warner 48 no, Finch 52 no
Australia win series 2-0
The view from The National
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FIXTURES
All kick-off times 10.45pm UAE ( 4 GMT) unless stated
Tuesday
Sevilla v Maribor
Spartak Moscow v Liverpool
Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk
Napoli v Feyenoord
Besiktas v RB Leipzig
Monaco v Porto
Apoel Nicosia v Tottenham Hotspur
Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid
Wednesday
Basel v Benfica
CSKA Moscow Manchester United
Paris Saint-Germain v Bayern Munich
Anderlecht v Celtic
Qarabag v Roma (8pm)
Atletico Madrid v Chelsea
Juventus v Olympiakos
Sporting Lisbon v Barcelona
25-MAN SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Francis Uzoho, Ikechukwu Ezenwa, Daniel Akpeyi
Defenders: Olaoluwa Aina, Abdullahi Shehu, Chidozie Awaziem, William Ekong, Leon Balogun, Kenneth Omeruo, Jamilu Collins, Semi Ajayi
Midfielders: John Obi Mikel, Wilfred Ndidi, Oghenekaro Etebo, John Ogu
Forwards: Ahmed Musa, Victor Osimhen, Moses Simon, Henry Onyekuru, Odion Ighalo, Alexander Iwobi, Samuel Kalu, Paul Onuachu, Kelechi Iheanacho, Samuel Chukwueze
On Standby: Theophilus Afelokhai, Bryan Idowu, Ikouwem Utin, Mikel Agu, Junior Ajayi, Valentine Ozornwafor
Ain Dubai in numbers
126: The length in metres of the legs supporting the structure
1 football pitch: The length of each permanent spoke is longer than a professional soccer pitch
16 A380 Airbuses: The equivalent weight of the wheel rim.
9,000 tonnes: The amount of steel used to construct the project.
5 tonnes: The weight of each permanent spoke that is holding the wheel rim in place
192: The amount of cable wires used to create the wheel. They measure a distance of 2,4000km in total, the equivalent of the distance between Dubai and Cairo.
MATCH INFO
Austria 2
Hinteregger (53'), Schopf (69')
Germany 1
Ozil (11')
SPAIN SQUAD
Goalkeepers Simon (Athletic Bilbao), De Gea (Manchester United), Sanchez (Brighton)
Defenders Gaya (Valencia), Alba (Barcelona), P Torres (Villarreal), Laporte (Manchester City), Garcia (Manchester City), D Llorente (Leeds), Azpilicueta (Chelsea)
Midfielders Busquets (Barcelona), Rodri (Manchester City), Pedri (Barcelona), Thiago (Liverpool), Koke (Atletico Madrid), Ruiz (Napoli), M Llorente (Atletico Madrid)
Forwards: Olmo (RB Leipzig), Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad), Morata (Juventus), Moreno (Villarreal), F Torres (Manchester City), Traore (Wolves), Sarabia (PSG)
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
Last-16 Europa League fixtures
Wednesday (Kick-offs UAE)
FC Copenhagen (0) v Istanbul Basaksehir (1) 8.55pm
Shakhtar Donetsk (2) v Wolfsburg (1) 8.55pm
Inter Milan v Getafe (one leg only) 11pm
Manchester United (5) v LASK (0) 11pm
Thursday
Bayer Leverkusen (3) v Rangers (1) 8.55pm
Sevilla v Roma (one leg only) 8.55pm
FC Basel (3) v Eintracht Frankfurt (0) 11pm
Wolves (1) Olympiakos (1) 11pm
KYLIAN MBAPPE 2016/17 STATS
Ligue 1: Appearances - 29, Goals - 15, Assists - 8
UCL: Appearances - 9, Goals - 6
French Cup: Appearances - 3, Goals - 3
France U19: Appearances - 5, Goals - 5, Assists - 1
Test series fixtures
(All matches start at 2pm UAE)
1st Test Lord's, London from Thursday to Monday
2nd Test Nottingham from July 14-18
3rd Test The Oval, London from July 27-31
4th Test Manchester from August 4-8
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 502hp at 7,600rpm
Torque: 637Nm at 5,150rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Price: from Dh317,671
On sale: now
RESULTS
5pm: Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan Racing Festival Purebred Arabian Cup Conditions (PA) Dh 200,000 (Turf) 1,600m
Winner: Hameem, Adrie de Vries (jockey), Abdallah Al Hammadi (trainer)
5.30pm: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak Cup Conditions (PA) Dh 200,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: Winked, Connor Beasley, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm: Sheikh Sultan bin Zayed Al Nahyan National Day Cup Listed (TB) Dh 380,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: Boerhan, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard
6.30pm: Sheikh Sultan bin Zayed Al Nahyan National Day Group 3 (PA) Dh 500,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: AF Alwajel, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7pm: Sheikh Sultan bin Zayed Al Nahyan National Day Jewel Crown Group 1 (PA) Dh 5,000,000 (T) 2,200m
Winner: Messi, Pat Dobbs, Timo Keersmaekers
7.30pm: Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan Racing Festival Handicap (PA) Dh 150,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Harrab, Ryan Curatolo, Jean de Roualle
8pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 100,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: AF Alareeq, Connor Beasley, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history
- 4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon
- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.
- 50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater
- 1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.
- 1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.
- 1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.
-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.
PSL FINAL
Multan Sultans v Peshawar Zalmi
8pm, Thursday
Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Fixtures (all times UAE)
Saturday
Brescia v Atalanta (6pm)
Genoa v Torino (9pm)
Fiorentina v Lecce (11.45pm)
Sunday
Juventus v Sassuolo (3.30pm)
Inter Milan v SPAL (6pm)
Lazio v Udinese (6pm)
Parma v AC Milan (6pm)
Napoli v Bologna (9pm)
Verona v AS Roma (11.45pm)
Monday
Cagliari v Sampdoria (11.45pm)
Opening Rugby Championship fixtures: Games can be watched on OSN Sports
Saturday: Australia v New Zealand, Sydney, 1pm (UAE)
Sunday: South Africa v Argentina, Port Elizabeth, 11pm (UAE)
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm
Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
Profile
Company name: Marefa Digital
Based: Dubai Multi Commodities Centre
Number of employees: seven
Sector: e-learning
Funding stage: Pre-seed funding of Dh1.5m in 2017 and an initial seed round of Dh2m in 2019
Investors: Friends and family
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
Overview
What: The Arab Women’s Sports Tournament is a biennial multisport event exclusively for Arab women athletes.
When: From Sunday, February 2, to Wednesday, February 12.
Where: At 13 different centres across Sharjah.
Disciplines: Athletics, archery, basketball, fencing, Karate, table tennis, shooting (rifle and pistol), show jumping and volleyball.
Participating countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Qatar and UAE.
The Brutalist
Director: Brady Corbet
Stars: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn
Rating: 3.5/5
Score
Third Test, Day 2
New Zealand 274
Pakistan 139-3 (61 ov)
Pakistan trail by 135 runs with 7 wickets remaining in the innings
Brief scores:
Southampton 2
Armstrong 13', Soares 20'
Manchester United 2
Lukaku 33', Herrera 39'
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Grubtech
Founders: Mohamed Al Fayed and Mohammed Hammedi
Launched: October 2019
Employees: 50
Financing stage: Seed round (raised $2 million)
World Cricket League Division 2
In Windhoek, Namibia - Top two teams qualify for the World Cup Qualifier in Zimbabwe, which starts on March 4.
UAE fixtures
Thursday February 8, v Kenya; Friday February 9, v Canada; Sunday February 11, v Nepal; Monday February 12, v Oman; Wednesday February 14, v Namibia; Thursday February 15, final
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Monster Hunter: World
Capcom
PlayStation 4, Xbox One
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
ICC Awards for 2021
MEN
Cricketer of the Year – Shaheen Afridi (Pakistan)
T20 Cricketer of the Year – Mohammad Rizwan (Pakistan)
ODI Cricketer of the Year – Babar Azam (Pakistan)
Test Cricketer of the Year – Joe Root (England)
WOMEN
Cricketer of the Year – Smriti Mandhana (India)
ODI Cricketer of the Year – Lizelle Lee (South Africa)
T20 Cricketer of the Year – Tammy Beaumont (England)
ASIAN%20RUGBY%20CHAMPIONSHIP%202024
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EResults%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EHong%20Kong%2052-5%20UAE%3Cbr%3ESouth%20Korea%2055-5%20Malaysia%3Cbr%3EMalaysia%206-70%20Hong%20Kong%3Cbr%3EUAE%2036-32%20South%20Korea%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFixtures%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EFriday%2C%20June%2021%2C%207.30pm%20kick-off%3A%20UAE%20v%20Malaysia%3Cbr%3EAt%20The%20Sevens%2C%20Dubai%20(admission%20is%20free).%3Cbr%3ESaturday%3A%20Hong%20Kong%20v%20South%20Korea%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
FIXTURES
All kick-off times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Brackets denote aggregate score
Tuesday:
Roma (1) v Shakhtar Donetsk (2), 11.45pm
Manchester United (0) v Sevilla (0), 11.45pm
Wednesday:
Besiktas (0) v Bayern Munich (5), 9pm
Barcelona (1) v Chelsea (1), 11.45pm
The specs: 2018 Jeep Grand Cherokee Trackhawk
Price, base: Dh399,999
Engine: Supercharged 6.2-litre V8
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 707hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 875Nm @ 4,800rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 16.8L / 100km (estimate)
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
The years Ramadan fell in May
Warlight,
Michael Ondaatje, Knopf
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Tickets
Tickets start at Dh100 for adults, while children can enter free on the opening day. For more information, visit www.mubadalawtc.com.
