Illustration by Pip Montserrat for The National
Illustration by Pip Montserrat for The National

Why we need the Gulf's vital statistics



Do you know who an economist's best friend is? It's not Ben or Paul, but Fred: the Federal Reserve Economic Database. This contains more than 20,000 macroeconomic time series - repeated observations of key economic variables - and is publicly available on the website of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. Along with other micro data available from the US Census Bureau, and innumerable free online sources, economists have used these resources to inform decision-making by the private sector and the US government.

And while similar databases exist for other OECD countries, the same cannot be said for the GCC. By making this information publicly available, these countries sustain a vibrant and open world research community; they in turn benefit from years of accumulated research that can be used to inform public policy. In addition, the private sector benefits from a more stable economic climate. Last week Dubai took a step in the right direction when its statistics centre released information on a series of key indicators - from divorce rates to the number of new buildings completed - to provide a snapshot of life in the emirate. While the move was warmly welcomed, economists warned that gaps remain and that overall numbers that provide insight for policymakers remained murky.

Better data encourage economic stability. This is especially important for Gulf economies, which are prone to greater macroeconomic volatility. Output growth in the Gulf will vary by a greater proportion because the dynamics of labour migration are likely to accentuate any disturbance to the economy. The exchange rate regime of the UAE also tends to amplify business cycles: after a demand shock, output tends to rise by more than in an economy with a floating exchange rate because monetary policy must accommodate output growth to keep the exchange rate fixed. Economists sometimes say that fiscal policy is "hyper-effective" in such an environment.

To this list of factors that generate economic volatility, we can add another item: the lack of systematic data about economic activity. Unlike the OECD, the UAE does not release high frequency, time series macroeconomic data that would inform decision-makers in the private sector about the health of the UAE economy. In the United States, high frequency data are publicly available on output, inflation, unemployment, labour productivity, consumer sentiment and many other important variables. In addition, the private sector collects ultra-high frequency data in the goods market as well as the financial markets. This can be used by economists and the private sector alike to paint an up-to-the-minute picture of the economic landscape of the US economy. In contrast, economists interested in the Gulf region have only access to outdated, low frequency data from the IMF and the World Bank databases.

The current financial crisis proves that all the data in the world may not be enough to question conventional wisdom - but the aftermath of the financial crisis has been quite instructive. Marcus Brunnermeier of the National Bureau of Economic Research, in his working paper "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08", uses economic, financial and event data to explain how the banking system unravelled. His expertise, along with that of many others, is currently being used by the US government to reform the banking sector.

More prosaically, publicly available data have been instrumental in allowing experts within the US government, the private sector and academia, to weigh in on the bank bailout that was probably responsible for the current road to recovery. To this day, little information exists on the effects of the financial crisis for the UAE economy. Publicly available data on house prices, trading volume, and other relevant information could be analysed to better understand how policy should be modified so that the effect of the next external shock - which will happen! - is smaller in magnitude.

To be sure, some data are currently available from government websites and other privileged sources and the government's recent efforts at making more high frequency data on inflation and other measures of macroeconomic performance available is a good start. State-of-the-art economic and financial analysis, however, require vastly more data - without it clear policy inferences cannot be drawn. Politicians usually take credit for any good economic news; in OECD countries, however, the existence of reliable data allow for a sober analysis of the facts. The private sector can, in turn, make decisions tied to economic fundamentals rather than the latest headlines.

In the GCC, this kind of analysis is far more difficult, as decision-makers only have a partial view of the whole picture. This climate encourages bad decision-making, both in the public sector and by private individuals, and may have aggravated the impact of the crisis in Dubai. Disseminating better data is one important step the government can take to put knowledge back into the "knowledge economy". The financial crisis also hit home in the domestic financial markets, which suffered losses that were disproportionate to those that occurred in many OECD countries. The UAE equity markets continue to suffer from severe informational asymmetries that make international institutional investors think twice about putting their money in the UAE - regional stock markets, therefore, lack "market depth" which results in greater price fluctuations after a news event.

Many sources of data exist: because the UAE economy is open, high-frequency macro data from other countries can be used to draw inferences about various aspects of the UAE economy that are exposed to external shocks. But much more can be done: companies in the region specialise in the collection of time-series micro data on many demand-side aspects of the economy, such as traffic in shopping malls, spending within stores, prices, and other trade data. These data are currently used by the private sector - at a cost - to infer demand growth and production requirements for various goods and services.

By allowing the research community, and more generally the private sector, access to some aggregated version of these data, the Government would be tapping into a very large pool of economic expertise. Greater collaboration in collecting and releasing data with other GCC government institutions would also allow researchers to analyse how variations in economic outcomes across the Gulf affect individual country experiences.

Micro data can overturn conventional wisdom and shed light on simple and cheap ways to change behaviour. Noting that Americans tend to save very little, Thaler and Sunstein, in their book Nudge, propose that governments should encourage employers to automatically enrol employees in pension schemes. They argue that because people suffer from "status-quo bias", they are more likely to stay enrolled in the scheme even if they are occasionally tempted to overspend.

Using existing data, one can uncover interesting if unsettling relationships. Levitt and Dubner in Freakonomics famously, and controversially, claimed that legalising abortion could reduce crime rates. In both cases, the authors of these studies required data to test their theories; without that, an in-depth understanding of one's economy and society is a guessing game. Public policy, which affects everyone, suffers the same fate.

The benefits of better data collection and dissemination will be immediate: from more investor confidence to greater stability in equity markets and better macroeconomic performance, better data will allow for more careful economic and social policy, more informed decision-making by actors within the private sector, and generally a better understanding of UAE society. As an (in)famous statesman once said: "There are known unknowns. That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know." To this list, we can add "unknown knowns", data that we know exists, but to which access is limited. This is one item the UAE would do well to cross off its own list.

Dr Tarek Coury is an economist at the Dubai School of Government and the Harvard Kennedy School

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Company%20Profile
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The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo

The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
​​​​​​​Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km

The biog

Nickname: Mama Nadia to children, staff and parents

Education: Bachelors degree in English Literature with Social work from UAE University

As a child: Kept sweets on the window sill for workers, set aside money to pay for education of needy families

Holidays: Spends most of her days off at Senses often with her family who describe the centre as part of their life too

Company%20Profile
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From Zero

Artist: Linkin Park

Label: Warner Records

Number of tracks: 11

Rating: 4/5

'Falling%20for%20Christmas'
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The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5

COMPANY%20PROFILE%3A
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Abu Dhabi GP weekend schedule

Friday

First practice, 1pm 
Second practice, 5pm

Saturday

Final practice, 2pm
Qualifying, 5pm

Sunday

Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (55 laps), 5.10pm

Episode list:

Ep1: A recovery like no other- the unevenness of the economic recovery 

Ep2: PCR and jobs - the future of work - new trends and challenges 

Ep3: The recovery and global trade disruptions - globalisation post-pandemic 

Ep4: Inflation- services and goods - debt risks 

Ep5: Travel and tourism 

TO A LAND UNKNOWN

Director: Mahdi Fleifel

Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa

Rating: 4.5/5

Business Insights
  • Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
  • The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
  • US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs

Electoral College Victory

Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate. 

 

Popular Vote Tally

The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.

Expert input

If you had all the money in the world, what’s the one sneaker you would buy or create?

“There are a few shoes that have ‘grail’ status for me. But the one I have always wanted is the Nike x Patta x Parra Air Max 1 - Cherrywood. To get a pair in my size brand new is would cost me between Dh8,000 and Dh 10,000.” Jack Brett

“If I had all the money, I would approach Nike and ask them to do my own Air Force 1, that’s one of my dreams.” Yaseen Benchouche

“There’s nothing out there yet that I’d pay an insane amount for, but I’d love to create my own shoe with Tinker Hatfield and Jordan.” Joshua Cox

“I think I’d buy a defunct footwear brand; I’d like the challenge of reinterpreting a brand’s history and changing options.” Kris Balerite

 “I’d stir up a creative collaboration with designers Martin Margiela of the mixed patchwork sneakers, and Yohji Yamamoto.” Hussain Moloobhoy

“If I had all the money in the world, I’d live somewhere where I’d never have to wear shoes again.” Raj Malhotra

'Saand Ki Aankh'

Produced by: Reliance Entertainment with Chalk and Cheese Films
Director: Tushar Hiranandani
Cast: Taapsee Pannu, Bhumi Pednekar, Prakash Jha, Vineet Singh
Rating: 3.5/5 stars

How Apple's credit card works

The Apple Card looks different from a traditional credit card — there's no number on the front and the users' name is etched in metal. The card expands the company's digital Apple Pay services, marrying the physical card to a virtual one and integrating both with the iPhone. Its attributes include quick sign-up, elimination of most fees, strong security protections and cash back.

What does it cost?

Apple says there are no fees associated with the card. That means no late fee, no annual fee, no international fee and no over-the-limit fees. It also said it aims to have among the lowest interest rates in the industry. Users must have an iPhone to use the card, which comes at a cost. But they will earn cash back on their purchases — 3 per cent on Apple purchases, 2 per cent on those with the virtual card and 1 per cent with the physical card. Apple says it is the only card to provide those rewards in real time, so that cash earned can be used immediately.

What will the interest rate be?

The card doesn't come out until summer but Apple has said that as of March, the variable annual percentage rate on the card could be anywhere from 13.24 per cent to 24.24 per cent based on creditworthiness. That's in line with the rest of the market, according to analysts

What about security? 

The physical card has no numbers so purchases are made with the embedded chip and the digital version lives in your Apple Wallet on your phone, where it's protected by fingerprints or facial recognition. That means that even if someone steals your phone, they won't be able to use the card to buy things.

Is it easy to use?

Apple says users will be able to sign up for the card in the Wallet app on their iPhone and begin using it almost immediately. It also tracks spending on the phone in a more user-friendly format, eliminating some of the gibberish that fills a traditional credit card statement. Plus it includes some budgeting tools, such as tracking spending and providing estimates of how much interest could be charged on a purchase to help people make an informed decision. 

* Associated Press 

Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
Rating: 4/5
The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre turbo

Power: 181hp

Torque: 230Nm

Transmission: 6-speed automatic

Starting price: Dh79,000

On sale: Now

How it works

Booklava works on a subscription model. On signing up you receive a free book as part of a 30-day-trial period, after which you pay US$9.99 (Dh36.70) per month to gain access to a library of books and discounts of up to 30 per cent on selected titles. You can cancel your subscription at any time. For more details go to www.booklava.com

SRI LANKA SQUAD

Upul Tharanga (captain), Dinesh Chandimal, Niroshan Dickwella
Lahiru Thirimanne, Kusal Mendis, Milinda Siriwardana
Chamara Kapugedara, Thisara Perera, Seekuge Prasanna
Nuwan Pradeep, Suranga Lakmal, Dushmantha Chameera
Vishwa Fernando, Akila Dananjaya, Jeffrey Vandersay

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The%20Sandman
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
The specs

Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6

Power: 400hp

Torque: 475Nm

Transmission: 9-speed automatic

Price: From Dh215,900

On sale: Now

SPECS
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If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
'Nope'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jordan%20Peele%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Daniel%20Kaluuya%2C%20Keke%20Palmer%2C%20Brandon%20Perea%2C%20Steven%20Yeun%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Engine: 80 kWh four-wheel-drive

Transmission: eight-speed automatic

Power: 402bhp

Torque: 760Nm

Price: From Dh280,000

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.

Disclaimer

Director: Alfonso Cuaron 

Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville 

Rating: 4/5