NAIROBI // There was unity and hope two years ago as rival Kenyan politicians sat next to each other to sign a peace deal that created a coalition government and ended months of violent unrest.
This week, however, as Kenya marked the two-year anniversary of the peace accord, hope appears to have faded and the unified coalition has unravelled.
Mwai Kibaki, the president, and Raila Odinga, the prime minister, appealed for unity even as they were locked in a power struggle that could disrupt the government at a critical time. Leaders are attempting to draft a new constitution that they hope will reform state institutions and avoid the bloody fighting that marred the 2007 election.
"I am sure that if we remain united as we have, the country will indeed be prosperous," Mr Kibaki said in a televised speech. "This is what we want for the country. Let us all seek what is great for Kenya and achieve it."
Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga contested a close election that observers said was fraught with irregularities. After Mr Kibaki claimed victory, violence erupted along tribal lines. Kofi Annan, the former United Nations secretary general, negotiated a peace accord ending the bloodshed that killed 1,300 people.
Mr Odinga agreed to share power with Mr Kibaki, but the two have recently been at loggerheads over Mr Odinga's attempt to suspend two ministers for fraud allegations. Mr Kibaki says Mr Odinga does not have the power to discipline ministers.
According to a new poll, 60 per cent of Kenyans say the political instability threatens to derail the drafting of the constitution. Most Kenyans say political instability and corruption are the most important issues facing the country, according to the poll by the Nairobi-based Strategic PR.
"Political instability is obviously on the rise since it was not among the top five issues the last time we did a survey," Caesar Handa, head of Strategic PR, told the local Daily Nation newspaper.
Analysts say that Kenya is at a crossroads.
Politicians must draft a new constitution, reform the police and judiciary and bring to justice the perpetrators of the post-election violence before the next election in just over two years, according to Michael Ranneberger, the US ambassador to Kenya. The US put pressure on Kenya to create the coalition government.
"During the past two years there has been some progress in implementing the reform agenda," Mr Ranneberger said in a statement. "However, much more remains to be accomplished. Much more must be done to foster national reconciliation and cohesion."
An independent commission found that some top politicians organised the post-election violence. Political leaders have refused to set up a special court to try the suspects, instead opting for a truth and reconciliation commission. The commission chairman is under fire for his involvement in past injustices. The International Criminal Court in The Hague has also started investigating Kenyan politicians' role in the violence.
Meanwhile, parliament is currently debating a draft constitution that could reform the judiciary and reign-in government spending. The constitution would save taxpayers millions by reducing the size of the cabinet, currently one of the largest in the world, from 98 ministers and deputy ministers to 24 ministers.
The draft bill also removes the position of prime minister, which was created specifically for Mr Odinga two years ago. Kenyans will vote on the new constitution in a referendum later this year.
"The proposed constitution of Kenya attempts to capture the consensus achieved by parliament without sacrificing the views of Kenyans," said the final report from the constitution drafting committee.
Mr Odinga called on Kenyan leaders to back the constitution and not use the process for political grandstanding.
"The constitution making process is well on course and has in fact reached a critical stage," he said during a speech to mark the anniversary of the peace deal. "We should desist from making utterances that could scuttle the process."
Analysts say there are signs that politicians have already started manoeuvring for the 2012 presidential election. Mr Odinga this week travelled to central Kenya giving speeches in what appeared to be a campaign trip. William Ruto, a former ally of Mr Odinga, has formed an alliance with Mr Kibaki's party. Mr Kibaki cannot run again for president because of term limits.
Some Kenyans are upset at what appears to be early campaigning. They want their leaders to tackle the country's myriad problems such as corruption, impunity and judicial reform instead of worrying about their political careers.
"The politicians don't do anything for us," said James Kamau, a shopkeeper from Nairobi. "They are only concerned with staying in power. They are selfish, which is why I stay away from politics."
@Email:mbrown@thenational.ae
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In numbers
Number of Chinese tourists coming to UAE in 2017 was... 1.3m
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A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
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Rating: 4/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Globalization and its Discontents Revisited
Joseph E. Stiglitz
W. W. Norton & Company
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Iftar programme at the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding
Established in 1998, the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding was created with a vision to teach residents about the traditions and customs of the UAE. Its motto is ‘open doors, open minds’. All year-round, visitors can sign up for a traditional Emirati breakfast, lunch or dinner meal, as well as a range of walking tours, including ones to sites such as the Jumeirah Mosque or Al Fahidi Historical Neighbourhood.
Every year during Ramadan, an iftar programme is rolled out. This allows guests to break their fast with the centre’s presenters, visit a nearby mosque and observe their guides while they pray. These events last for about two hours and are open to the public, or can be booked for a private event.
Until the end of Ramadan, the iftar events take place from 7pm until 9pm, from Saturday to Thursday. Advanced booking is required.
For more details, email openminds@cultures.ae or visit www.cultures.ae
