New Delhi // Before the electoral results put speculation to rest yesterday, political pundits were predicting a fractured verdict and parties had started forging new alliances.
Along with various television exit polls and opinion polls, the bets favoured Congress and its allied parties to emerge as the single largest grouping. None of them had predicted such a comprehensive victory, however. In fact, projections had showed Congress leading the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) with a margin of just 10 to 15 seats.
The marathon five-phase election saw more than 428 million people exercising their right to vote. The mandate was largely expected to be fractured with a major vote share going to regional parties. Such a scenario would have led to uncertainty.
Nearly 55 billion rupees (Dh4bn) was gambled in elections during the two-month election season, most of it placed on Congress.
Bookmakers' projections saw Congress winning 145 to 160 seats of the 543 parliamentary seats up for grabs. The bookies offered 60 paise for one rupee spent on Congress, implying that Congress had a better chance of making its seat tally, compared with BJP, for which bookies offered 1.25 to four rupees for every rupee if it secured 145 seats. (One hundred paise equals one rupee.)
"After the fourth phase of polling, it seemed BJP would do well, but the results have been dismal for them. Right after the election dates were declared Congress was ahead of the BJP. Though the margin was not that large, we were expecting a tight fight," said Mr Shah, a bookmaker from Surat in Gujarat state who requested that only his last name be used.
The bookies had expected a fractured verdict that would lead to formation of various alliances. "Most of the money was riding on alliance formations. It was certain that parties would form alliances to form government at the centre," Mr Shah said.
Although betting is illegal in India, political parties took the predictions of the bookmakers seriously. Hundreds of bookies kept a constant eye on the changing scenarios in the key states of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
This was particularly the case this year because bookmaker odds for various state elections last year were on the mark. According to the bookies, various political parties took a cue from the projections this year to formulate strategies.
Bookies claim their business is based on thorough research and data. In many cases, they say, their projections have proved to be far more accurate and reliable than opinion polls. "It involves research and data collection. Our projections were based on previous election results, polling percentage, voter mood, polling agents, inputs from politicians and psephologists. We collect data from different agencies to formulate our own projections," Mr Shah said.
After the Indian Premier League cricket tournament shifted to South Africa this year, bookies focused on the elections, which proved to be a bigger money spinner than the Indian Premier League. The election betting business proved to be more dynamic than betting on cricket because projections and rates changed constantly, something to be expected in a five-phase election with more than 5,000 candidates in the fray.
The dark horse for bookmakers was the Third Front led by Communist Party of India (Marxist), which trailed the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance even though political analysts made much of the possibility that the front could emerge if not victorious then at least in a position of strength. The odds on the UPA forming the government were 1.50 to 1 compared with 1.75 to 1 for the NDA.
Almost all the political parties remained tight-lipped about forging alliances, leading to suspense over post-poll alliances that benefited the bookies. The bookmakers said they expected the suspense to remain until the formation of a new government, but results yesterday indicated the UPA would form the government on its own without leaning on the Left.
"We hoped for the suspense to continue till June 2, but it seems Congress will not require help from other parties," Mr Shah said.
Betting was not only on how the national parties would fare, but on regional parties as well. Exit polls and opinion polls showed various regional parties strengthening their positions as a threat to the formation of government. Janta Dal (U) from Bihar, for example, demanded special status for its state in lieu of support to any particular party. Both Congress and BJP responded to the demand positively.
Similarly, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, in Tamil Nadu, performed dismally though it had been wooed by Congress and BJP equally. Exit polls had predicted 25 seats out of the 39 seats for AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. Bookmakers were offering 85 paise for every rupee spent.
Another regional party, Bahujan Samaj Party, headed by Mayawati, the Dalit Queen, was projected to win 35 seats in Uttar Pradesh. Bettors offered 80 paise on every rupee spent.
According to the bookies, nearly 1billion rupees was placed on the six prime ministerial candidates. Manmohan Singh, the incumbent, was the prime choice of punters and was fixed at 75 paise for every rupee spent. The BJP's L K Advani was a dark horse through most of the five weeks of polling. Bookmakers offered 4.5 to one before the fourth round, lowering to 1.30 to one last week.
jandrees@thenational.ae
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
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Transmission: 10-speed automatic
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A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
Kamindu Mendis bio
Full name: Pasqual Handi Kamindu Dilanka Mendis
Born: September 30, 1998
Age: 20 years and 26 days
Nationality: Sri Lankan
Major teams Sri Lanka's Under 19 team
Batting style: Left-hander
Bowling style: Right-arm off-spin and slow left-arm orthodox (that's right!)
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.
The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.
“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.
“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”
Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.
Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.
“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.
What is tokenisation?
Tokenisation refers to the issuance of a blockchain token, which represents a virtually tradable real, tangible asset. A tokenised asset is easily transferable, offers good liquidity, returns and is easily traded on the secondary markets.
The bio
Favourite food: Japanese
Favourite car: Lamborghini
Favourite hobby: Football
Favourite quote: If your dreams don’t scare you, they are not big enough
Favourite country: UAE
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Thursday (All UAE kick-off times)
Sevilla v Real Betis (midnight)
Friday
Granada v Real Betis (9.30pm)
Valencia v Levante (midnight)
Saturday
Espanyol v Alaves (4pm)
Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7pm)
Leganes v Real Valladolid (9.30pm)
Mallorca v Barcelona (midnight)
Sunday
Atletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid (4pm)
Real Madrid v Eibar (9.30pm)
Real Sociedad v Osasuna (midnight)
In numbers
1,000 tonnes of waste collected daily:
- 800 tonnes converted into alternative fuel
- 150 tonnes to landfill
- 50 tonnes sold as scrap metal
800 tonnes of RDF replaces 500 tonnes of coal
Two conveyor lines treat more than 350,000 tonnes of waste per year
25 staff on site
The specs
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Freezer tips
- Always make sure food is completely cool before freezing.
- If you’re cooking in large batches, divide into either family-sized or individual portions to freeze.
- Ensure the food is well wrapped in foil or cling film. Even better, store in fully sealable, labelled containers or zip-lock freezer bags.
- The easiest and safest way to defrost items such as the stews and sauces mentioned is to do so in the fridge for several hours or overnight.
Crazy Rich Asians
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Constance Wu, Henry Golding, Michelle Yeon, Gemma Chan
Four stars
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history
- 4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon
- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.
- 50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater
- 1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.
- 1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.
- 1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.
-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Four-day collections of TOH
Day Indian Rs (Dh)
Thursday 500.75 million (25.23m)
Friday 280.25m (14.12m)
Saturday 220.75m (11.21m)
Sunday 170.25m (8.58m)
Total 1.19bn (59.15m)
(Figures in millions, approximate)
THE SPECS
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