Iran's two main opposition leaders are planning an emergency meeting this week to revise strategy after the regime proved it has learnt how to prevent anti-government protesters from gatecrashing key dates in the country's calendar.
"We want to maintain our peaceful demands in accordance with the constitution. But we don't want the people to pay the high price," Mehdi Karrubi, the opposition's most outspoken leader, told the British Sunday Telegraph newspaper.
His remark was an acknowledgement that opposition supporters, no matter how resolved and resilient, cannot be expected to keep taking to the streets, risking broken bones, arrest and possible death sentences, without seeing concrete political results.
Some analysts predict that the opposition may now move away from large street marches in favour of strikes and boycotts.
Mr Karrubi said he would meet, probably this week, with Mir Hossein Mousavi, the man millions of Iranians believe was the real winner of last June's disputed presidential elections, to discuss the way forward.
The opposition suffered a demoralising setback last Thursday when its much-touted plans to hijack state-sponsored rallies marking the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution were snuffed out with relative ease and apparently little bloodshed by the regime, which has a firm grip on the levers of power.
Opposition leaders had raised high expectations, predicting a record protest turnout that could tilt the stalemated balance of power with the regime in their favour.
Anti-government protesters had until then scored several notable successes by taking to the streets in huge numbers on other emotive anniversaries - a key tactic since June's disputed re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
But it was a tactic that telegraphed the opposition's plans to the authorities and pro-democracy demonstrators have paid a high price.
Thousands have been arrested since June, scores killed, two executed and others given long jail terms after summary mass trials.
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, boasted that last week's events were a "wake-up call to domestic enemies and deceived groups who claim to represent the people".
Some western analysts joined in with claims that the opposition, which is a broad tent that lacks charismatic leaders, had suffered a crippling, even potentially fatal, blow.
But most Iran experts insist that predictions of the green movement's demise are woefully premature.
"The opposition may have suffered a tactical defeat, but this fight is far from over," said Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council. "The government has prevented one major protest from taking place, but there is no sign that the will of the opposition has been broken.
"All the opposition has to do is to survive - the real question is for how long the government can set aside so many resources to prevent people from expressing their dissent."
Others also argued that the regime's victory on Thursday was Pyrrhic and achieved solely by negative means.
The government managed to fill a Tehran square with hundreds of thousands of its flag-waving supporters and matched this ostensible show of popular support with one of its biggest security operations in years.
Information is now emerging, however, that "the government-organised rally was pretty mediocre given the organisation that went into it", said Ali Ansari, a professor of Iranian history at St Andrew's University in Scotland.
"Had they [the opposition] called for a boycott rather than a huge outpouring of demonstrators, we wouldn't be discussing the demise of the green movement, an idea which is hugely premature and misunderstands fundamentally what is going on," Mr Ansari, one of the leading Iran experts in Britain, said.
Taking pre-emptive action, the authorities also rounded up scores of student and other activists who would have organised the protests at a grass-roots level. Mobile phone, internet and text messaging services were disrupted to prevent demonstrators mobilising and co-ordinating.
"For any regime, especially one that claims to be a popular republic based on Islam, pointing TV cameras at the right-looking crowd while beating the 'wrong crowd' with all its might, especially on the anniversary of its formation, is not a victory," wrote a guest analyst, under a pseudonym, on Enduring America, a blog on US foreign policy with expert Iran coverage.
Mr Karrubi said there were no upcoming rallies planned, but he told yesterday's Telegraph that the opposition would seek permission, in accordance with the constitution, to hold a "peaceful demonstration, in order to show the people's support for our movement".
The opposition is confident that if its supporters are allowed to assemble freely, they can mount a far bigger show of popular support than the turnout orchestrated by the regime on Thursday.
Implicitly threatening a campaign of nationwide civil disobedience, Mr Karrubi added: "If they don't let us have that, we will have to try different methods to talk and educate the people about the peace movement and extend it to the whole country."
Insisting the opposition's leadership would not "back away from people's rights", Mr Karrubi reiterated the "green movement's" relatively modest demands: the unconditional release of political prisoners, fair elections and a free press.
How the regime responds to its most serious challenge in decades depends largely on the supreme leader. Chants of "death to the dictator" may have chastened him in recent weeks - or he may prove hubristic and uncompromising after Thursday's perceived victory by the regime, analysts said.
Ayatollah Khamenei has refused to make concessions under pressure, but may be willing to compromise if he believes he now has the upper hand, they added.
Opposition leaders have sent Ayatollah Khamenei conciliatory signals in recent weeks, insisting that they are not contesting his position, although they continue to view Mr Ahmadinejad's government as illegitimate.
The president is being challenged not only by the opposition but by influential pragmatic conservatives, some of them close to the supreme leader. They are critical of Mr Ahmadinejad's handling of the post-election crisis and stridently opposed his management of the country's troubled economy.
Mr Ahmadinejad had less than 24 hours to savour his supposed victory last Thursday when a prominent conservative parliamentarian, Ali Mottahari, proclaimed: "We cannot claim the crisis is totally over until both sides make up for their mistakes."
The deputy, a close ally of the parliamentary speaker, Ali Larijani, who is a bitter conservative critic of the president, went on to echo Mr Karrubi. "The government should respect social freedoms and stop its press bans," Mr Mottahari said. "It should also take action to secure the release of political prisoners and create a climate of friendship and affection."
Among other strategies, Mr Karrubi and Mr Mousavi this week can be expected to explore the possibility of making common cause with such pragmatic hardliners.
mtheodoulou@thenational.ae
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
How%20champions%20are%20made
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Company%20profile
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Sinopharm vaccine explained
The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades.
“This is an inactivated vaccine. Simply what it means is that the virus is taken, cultured and inactivated," said Dr Nawal Al Kaabi, chair of the UAE's National Covid-19 Clinical Management Committee.
"What is left is a skeleton of the virus so it looks like a virus, but it is not live."
This is then injected into the body.
"The body will recognise it and form antibodies but because it is inactive, we will need more than one dose. The body will not develop immunity with one dose," she said.
"You have to be exposed more than one time to what we call the antigen."
The vaccine should offer protection for at least months, but no one knows how long beyond that.
Dr Al Kaabi said early vaccine volunteers in China were given shots last spring and still have antibodies today.
“Since it is inactivated, it will not last forever," she said.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre 6-cyl turbo
Power: 374hp at 5,500-6,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm from 1,900-5,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.5L/100km
Price: from Dh285,000
On sale: from January 2022
Company%20Profile
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DUBAI%20BLING%3A%20EPISODE%201
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RESULTS
West Asia Premiership
Thursday
Jebel Ali Dragons 13-34 Dubai Exiles
Friday
Dubai Knights Eagles 16-27 Dubai Tigers
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
JOKE'S%20ON%20YOU
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Her most famous song
Aghadan Alqak (Would I Ever Find You Again)?
Would I ever find you again
You, the heaven of my love, my yearning and madness;
You, the kiss to my soul, my cheer and
sadness?
Would your lights ever break the night of my eyes again?
Would I ever find you again?
This world is volume and you're the notion,
This world is night and you're the lifetime,
This world is eyes and you're the vision,
This world is sky and you're the moon time,
Have mercy on the heart that belongs to you.
Lyrics: Al Hadi Adam; Composer: Mohammed Abdel Wahab
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre turbo 4-cyl
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Power: 190bhp
Torque: 300Nm
Price: Dh169,900
On sale: now
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Swiss fly direct from the UAE to Zurich from Dh2,855 return, including taxes.
The chalet
Chalet N is currently open in winter only, between now and April 21. During the ski season, starting on December 11, a week’s rental costs from €210,000 (Dh898,431) per week for the whole property, which has 22 beds in total, across six suites, three double rooms and a children’s suite. The price includes all scheduled meals, a week’s ski pass, Wi-Fi, parking, transfers between Munich, Innsbruck or Zurich airports and one 50-minute massage per person. Private ski lessons cost from €360 (Dh1,541) per day. Halal food is available on request.
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
Results
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (Dirt) 1,600m; Winner: RB Kings Bay, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: AF Ensito, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash
8pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,400m; Winner: AF Sourouh, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
8.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,800m; Winner: Baaher, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
9pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Mootahady, Antonio Fresu, Eric Lemartinel
9.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh70,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Dubai Canal, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
10pm: Al Ain Cup – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Harrab, Bernardo Pinheiro, Majed Al Jahouri
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
WISH
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chris%20Buck%2C%20Fawn%20Veerasunthorn%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ariana%20DeBose%2C%20Chris%20Pine%2C%20Alan%20Tudyk%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Honda City
Price, base: From Dh57,000
Engine: 1.5L, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 118hp @ 6,600rpm
Torque: 146Nm @ 4,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.8L / 100km
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Teachers' pay - what you need to know
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
Turning%20waste%20into%20fuel
%3Cp%3EAverage%20amount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20at%20DIC%20factory%20every%20month%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EApproximately%20106%2C000%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAmount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20from%201%20litre%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%20%3Cstrong%3E920ml%20(92%25)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETime%20required%20for%20one%20full%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%20used%20cooking%20oil%20to%20biofuel%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EOne%20day%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EEnergy%20requirements%20for%20one%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%201%2C000%20litres%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%96%AA%20Electricity%20-%201.1904%20units%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Water-%2031%20litres%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Diesel%20%E2%80%93%2026.275%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Transmission: six-speed manual
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Speed: 0-100km/h 3.9 seconds
Price: Dh230,000
On sale: now
UAE’s revised Cricket World Cup League Two schedule
August, 2021: Host - United States; Teams - UAE, United States and Scotland
Between September and November, 2021 (dates TBC): Host - Namibia; Teams - Namibia, Oman, UAE
December, 2021: Host - UAE; Teams - UAE, Namibia, Oman
February, 2022: Hosts - Nepal; Teams - UAE, Nepal, PNG
June, 2022: Hosts - Scotland; Teams - UAE, United States, Scotland
September, 2022: Hosts - PNG; Teams - UAE, PNG, Nepal
February, 2023: Hosts - UAE; Teams - UAE, PNG, Nepal
How to register as a donor
1) Organ donors can register on the Hayat app, run by the Ministry of Health and Prevention
2) There are about 11,000 patients in the country in need of organ transplants
3) People must be over 21. Emiratis and residents can register.
4) The campaign uses the hashtag #donate_hope
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE
Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:
• Buy second hand stuff
They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.
• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres
Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.
• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.
Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.
• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home
Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
SUZUME
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FA Cup semi-finals
Saturday: Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur, 8.15pm (UAE)
Sunday: Chelsea v Southampton, 6pm (UAE)
Matches on Bein Sports
THE BIO
Occupation: Specialised chief medical laboratory technologist
Age: 78
Favourite destination: Always Al Ain “Dar Al Zain”
Hobbies: his work - “ the thing which I am most passionate for and which occupied all my time in the morning and evening from 1963 to 2019”
Other hobbies: football
Favorite football club: Al Ain Sports Club