Despite global opposition, the vote on Kurdish independence looks set to go ahead, and a decision in favour of independence is all but inevitable.
It is an outcome that will have far-reaching consequences for Iraq, says Dr Norman Ricklefs, a former adviser to the secretary general of the Iraqi ministry of defence and senior advisor to the Iraqi interior minister, who is about to release a new report on the Iraqi security forces.
Speaking exclusively to The National, Dr Ricklefs, who now runs Middle Eastern consultancy firm NAMEA Group, said: "It is hard to see how the region as a whole could be destabilised any more, but a 'yes' vote could definitely destabilise Iraq. Whether it will have a real impact in places like Syria, I don't really see that — at least, not in the short term. But in Iraq, it could be very destabilising."
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Read more:
Iraq's Kurdish government defies international calls to postpone referendum
A Kurdish bid for independence will never be convenient for Iraq, so it must happen now
US ‘strongly opposes’ Iraqi Kurd referendum
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So far, the Kurdish leadership have ignored all calls to suspend the referendum, including an order from the Iraqi Supreme Court and stated opposition from the US, UN and all of Iraq's neighbours.
“If Massoud Barzani’s team are going to listen to anyone, they’re going to listen to Turkey," Dr Ricklefs said. "And the fact that Turkey is very publicly saying ‘stop’ and the Kurds are still going ahead with it tells me that Turkey is not yet prepared to take the hard measures required to stop the referendum. Kurdistan’s economy is dependent on Turkey, and Turkey’s pressure on Kurdistan could be key to stopping the referendum at this stage.
“Turkey wants to publicly show that it is opposed to Kurdish independence, and opposed to further destabilisation of the region. But Turkey knows that the vote does not mean independence in the short term and it is adopting a behind-the-scenes pragmatic approach to the increasing separation of Kurdistan from Iraq.
“The likelihood is the vote will take place, and what’s more, it is almost certainly going to be a ‘yes’ outcome,” Dr Ricklefs added. “The real question is: what happens next?”
The answer depends very much on how politicians on either side react. “We can either return to the status quo that existed prior to September 25 – which would be to everyone’s benefit. Or you can indulge in short-sighted rhetoric which will lead to conflict. And if that happens, it will undermine both Kurdish aspirations and also Iraq’s security overall.”
There is also a very real risk of provoking further conflict in the country, thereby giving ISIL an opportunity for renewed bloodshed.
“The great fear is that the vote leads to clashes in disputed areas, such as Kirkuk, between Peshmerga (the Kurdish forces), and Shiite and Sunni Arab tribal militias. Such clashes will distract Iraq’s forces from the fight against ISIL. And of course, ISIL will take advantage of its enemies – the Iraqi forces – all of a sudden turning on each other. This would provide an opportunity for them to conduct bombings and other attacks across the country.”
_______________
Read more:
Barzani says Kurdish partnership with Baghdad has failed
Erdogan to discuss 'sanctions' against Iraq's Kurdish region
Iraq supreme court orders suspension of Kurdish referendum
_______________
Any re-emergence of violence could also undermine Iraq’s prime minister, Haider Al-Abadi, Dr Ricklefs argued.
“Abadi has emerged from the last three years of chaos as the victor of Mosul, the man who has returned most of Iraq’s soil to the control of the Iraqi government. So right now, he is riding very high in terms of public opinion. But if there are serious clashes in places like Kirkuk and other disputed areas, as a result of the Kurdish vote, then he’s going to start looking weak. It would undermine his chances of getting a second parliamentary term and create a political crisis in Iraq.”
However, politicians have an opportunity to control the fallout.
Indeed, Mr Barzani has already said that a “yes” vote would not trigger an immediate declaration of independence, but rather, kick-start “serious discussions” with Baghdad. Constructive talks of this kind should be encouraged, Dr Ricklefs suggested, to allow chartering a durable and peaceful secession from Iraq.
“Kurdistan is effectively an independent state already,” he said. “The Kurds have enjoyed de facto independence since 2003, and that’s the important part to take into account when you’re talking about the referendum. However, Kurdistan enjoys great benefits from continuing to have close economic and political ties with the rest of Iraq. A lot of the benefits from Iraq’s economic recovery from 2003 have gone to Kurdistan, a lot of Iraq’s oil wealth has certainly gone north to Erbil. So, Kurdish leaders clearly recognise the benefits from maintaining close relations with Baghdad. If politicians are able to handle this whole issue in a calm way, we can get past this. Baghdad and Erbil need each other.”
Reading List
Practitioners of mindful eating recommend the following books to get you started:
Savor: Mindful Eating, Mindful Life by Thich Nhat Hanh and Dr Lilian Cheung
How to Eat by Thich Nhat Hanh
The Mindful Diet by Dr Ruth Wolever
Mindful Eating by Dr Jan Bays
How to Raise a Mindful Eaterby Maryann Jacobsen
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The Penguin
Starring: Colin Farrell, Cristin Milioti, Rhenzy Feliz
Creator: Lauren LeFranc
Rating: 4/5
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Company%20Profile
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The Buckingham Murders
Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu
Director: Hansal Mehta
Rating: 4 / 5
THE SPECS
Engine: 4.4-litre V8
Transmission: Automatic
Power: 530bhp
Torque: 750Nm
Price: Dh535,000
On sale: Now
MATCH INFO
Bangla Tigers 108-5 (10 ovs)
Ingram 37, Rossouw 26, Pretorius 2-10
Deccan Gladiators 109-4 (9.5 ovs)
Watson 41, Devcich 27, Wiese 2-15
Gladiators win by six wickets
More coverage from the Future Forum
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre, 4-cylinder turbo
Transmission: CVT
Power: 170bhp
Torque: 220Nm
Price: Dh98,900
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Race card
5pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m; 5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; 6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 (PA) 1,400m
MATCH INFO
Northern Warriors 92-1 (10 ovs)
Russell 37 no, Billings 35 no
Team Abu Dhabi 93-4 (8.3 ovs)
Wright 48, Moeen 30, Green 2-22
Team Abu Dhabi win by six wickets
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SPECS
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TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
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Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
The biog
Marital status: Separated with two young daughters
Education: Master's degree from American Univeristy of Cairo
Favourite book: That Is How They Defeat Despair by Salwa Aladian
Favourite Motto: Their happiness is your happiness
Goal: For Nefsy to become his legacy long after he is gon
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5