DAMASCUS // The Syrian authorities say the uprising – or foreign-backed conspiracy, as they refer to it – is all but finished, with victory close at hand.
In similar, optimistic fashion, opponents of the regime have already signed its death certificate – the United States calling President Bashar Al Assad "a dead man walking".
While both proclamations have been hasty, 2012 should be the year to prove which side is right.
Almost 10 months of revolt have ravaged the country, putting it at war with itself. Syrian tanks are in Syrian streets, and thousands of people have been killed and wounded. Tens of thousands have also fled their homes, while many more languish in jail.
It is difficult to imagine (although not inconceivable) that another year can pass in the same manner as the last without something – either the regime and its backers or the opposition and their supporters – breaking.
And that is what it will take. If the previous months have shown anything, it is that there will be no compromise, no deal in which the opposing factions meet halfway and agree to settle their differences. The struggle for Syria is an all-or-nothing affair that will have a victor and a vanquished. And countless victims.
Sincere efforts have been made inside the country to broker a ‘third way’, to replace bloodletting with politics. But those efforts were stillborn, kicked aside as a naive fiction by those who know the centre of a cauldron is no place for give-and-take, open debate, power-sharing or partnership.
The process of deciding who wins and who loses Syria has already been brutal and the violence is escalating. The violence of the last two weeks – massacres reported in the rural battle zones and protest areas, car bombs in Damascus – are surely a harbinger of what is to come.
An already dirty conflict will get dirtier – the low point has not been reached. There will be more car bombings, more arrests, murders, kidnappings, assassinations and unspeakable abuse.
The key question is what will change to give one of the sides the upper hand. For now there is a stalemate, neither faction able to force defeat or surrender on the other, but both are under immense pressure.
The dying economy could play an important role in shifting the balance, yet it is unlikely to be decisive. Authoritarian regimes tend to have little trouble withstanding blockades, at least for a decade or so.
Defections from the army have been increasing, and rebel soldiers have been successful in attacking loyalist units, although not to the degree that the armed forces or security branches are fundamentally undermined. A shift here would be critical.
While the regime has been a model of discipline and unity of purpose, the opposition has struggled to organise and remains fractured. It may yet break.
Ultimately it is international politics that seems likely be the deciding factor, with the Syrian revolt no longer a Syrian affair. The stakes are much higher than merely who gets to govern this beautiful but relatively poor country.
Syria is now an arena for the kind of proxy conflict that has long choked neighbouring Lebanon. On one side are Iran, the Syrian regime, Hizbollah and, more loosely but importantly, Russia and China, all happy to maintain the unravelling status quo. On the other are the US, Israel, Europe and the oil-rich nations of the Arabian Gulf, all hoping to clip Tehran’s wings, using Damascus as the shears, before it can obtain nuclear weapons.
To what extent and exactly how these various actors decide to involve themselves in Syria will depend in part on election year politics in the US and Russia, both of which have presidential votes in 2012. There may be important domestic political changes in Iran and Saudi Arabia, too.
President Bashar Al Assad has warned there will be an “earthquake” – a devastating regional war – if his regime falls. But he has also insisted it will not come to that because his position is strong, his supporters steadfast, his allies unyielding. If he is wrong about the latter, 2012 may be to be the year in which his doomsday prediction is put to the test.
psands@thenational.ae
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
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Company%20Profile
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Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
UAE jiu-jitsu squad
Men: Hamad Nawad and Khalid Al Balushi (56kg), Omar Al Fadhli and Saeed Al Mazroui (62kg), Taleb Al Kirbi and Humaid Al Kaabi (69kg), Mohammed Al Qubaisi and Saud Al Hammadi (70kg), Khalfan Belhol and Mohammad Haitham Radhi (85kg), Faisal Al Ketbi and Zayed Al Kaabi (94kg)
Women: Wadima Al Yafei and Mahra Al Hanaei (49kg), Bashayer Al Matrooshi and Hessa Al Shamsi (62kg)
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
The essentials
What: Emirates Airline Festival of Literature
When: Friday until March 9
Where: All main sessions are held in the InterContinental Dubai Festival City
Price: Sessions range from free entry to Dh125 tickets, with the exception of special events.
Hot Tip: If waiting for your book to be signed looks like it will be timeconsuming, ask the festival’s bookstore if they have pre-signed copies of the book you’re looking for. They should have a bunch from some of the festival’s biggest guest authors.
Information: www.emirateslitfest.com
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
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Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
