Iraqi forces claimed a glorious victory, but in reality they walked into Kirkuk for the most part unopposed.
That the fiercely proud Kurdish peshmerga forces would have rolled over and allowed the central government troops and their Shiite militias to take the prized city without a fight is unthinkable.
Instead, what amounted to a handover of power on Monday when Iraqi troops swept into the city and took it from Kurdish control, was an orchestrated agreement that reflected both intra-Kurdish rivalries and the power wielded in Iraq from Tehran.
The surrender of Kirkuk took place amid the internal divisions among the two main ruling Kurdish political parties, the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) of regional government leader Masoud Barzani and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) of his late rival Jalal Talabani.
Both parties control their own Kurdish forces, known collectively as the peshmerga. While Mr Barzani's KDP strongly supported the independence referendum, some PUK figures were skeptical of the consequences it would have on the Kurdistan region.
On Monday, peshmerga figures loyal to the KDP accused a group within the PUK of “treason” for assisting Baghdad's advance. “We regret that some PUK officials helped in this plot,” a statement said.
The offensive took place a day after the powerful Iranian general, Qassem Suleimani, met with Kurdish officials in Kurdistan. The commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps’ overseas operations provides training and weaponry to Iraq’s Shiite militias, which took part in the operation to oust Kurdish forces from Kirkuk.
It is not known what Major Gen Suleimani discussed with Kurdish PUK leaders. But, within hours, their fighters started abandoning their posts, making way for Iraqi military units to enter the outskirts and then centre of Kirkuk.
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Read more:
Thousands flee Kirkuk amid fear of war
Iraqi forces seize Kirkuk from Kurdish fighters
Iranian general Qassem Soleimani visits Iraqi Kurdistan amid standoff with Baghdad
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"The peshmerga are divided. The PUK cut a deal brokered by Qassem Suleimani to allow the Iraqi army and Hashed Al Shaabi [the collection of Shiite militias] back without a fight," Michael Rubin, resident scholar at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute think tank, told The National.
"The deal avoided bloodshed as the Iraqi army and Hashed Al Shaabi are far better trained than the peshmerga," Mr Rubin said.
Fanar Haddad, senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore, said: “It seems clear that there was a deal made that included elements of the PUK. This facilitated a withdrawal in several areas.”
“More broadly, Kurdish leaders may have concluded that war was futile given intra-Kurdish divisions, the disparity in military strength between Baghdad and Erbil, the regional consensus against them and the determination of all relevant parties particularly Turkey, Iran and the United States to support Baghdad," Mr Haddad said.
Peshmerga forces took control of Kirkuk and surrounding oil fields in 2014 to prevent ISIL from seizing the city.
"While the Kurds are better at public relations and have cultivated an image of being the key force against ISIL, the reality is that the Iraqi army and Hashed Al Shaabi did most of the fighting in Ramadi, Fallujah, Tikrit, Beiji, and even Mosul,” Mr Rubin said.
“A battle between the Iraqi military and the Kurds would be like a battle between United States and Lichtenstein.”
Kirkuk, a city home to Iraqi Arabs, Turkmen, Christians and Kurds, emerged as a flashpoint in the crisis after it was included in Iraqi Kurdistan's independence vote last month even though it is not part of the Kurdish region.
Kirkuk is particularly vital to Kurdish independence because without its oil, Kurdistan would not be an economically viable country.
Washington has been pushing for a "joint administration" of Kirkuk between Baghdad's central government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
“Having reasserted its control over areas lost in 2014, Iraq should refrain from any further military action, establish a joint administration of Kirkuk and begin negotiations with all Kurdish parties with a serious eye towards addressing the many long-standing issues between Baghdad and Erbil," Mr Haddad said.
Michael Knights, Iraq analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Baghdad and Erbil could still have a joint administration over Kirkuk and its resources.
“They are still cooperating at this very minute on the deal to send about 40,000 barrels per day of oil to KRG exports and oil to Baghdad refineries and disputed area refineries. And there was effective joint administration before 2014, so it is just going back to something we had fairly recently.”
Kirkuk is a multi-ethnic city of many faiths and it will remain as such, Mr Rubin said. “Erbil overplayed its hand, refused to negotiate, and lost,” he said.
"The oil fields are now under Baghdad's control, and that means Erbil's hand is now even weaker. That said, let's hope the Iraqis are wise enough to know that they should be magnanimous in victory and treat all Kirkukis well in order to demonstrate that the Iraqi government can be more open-minded and democratic than Erbil."
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
How it works
A $10 hand-powered LED light and battery bank
Device is operated by hand cranking it at any time during the day or night
The charge is stored inside a battery
The ratio is that for every minute you crank, it provides 10 minutes light on the brightest mode
A full hand wound charge is of 16.5minutes
This gives 1.1 hours of light on high mode or 2.5 hours of light on low mode
When more light is needed, it can be recharged by winding again
The larger version costs between $18-20 and generates more than 15 hours of light with a 45-minute charge
No limit on how many times you can charge
Sleep Well Beast
The National
4AD
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
KINGDOM%20OF%20THE%20PLANET%20OF%20THE%20APES
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T20 World Cup Qualifier fixtures
Tuesday, October 29
Qualifier one, 2.10pm – Netherlands v UAE
Qualifier two, 7.30pm – Namibia v Oman
Wednesday, October 30
Qualifier three, 2.10pm – Scotland v loser of qualifier one
Qualifier four, 7.30pm – Hong Kong v loser of qualifier two
Thursday, October 31
Fifth-place playoff, 2.10pm – winner of qualifier three v winner of qualifier four
Friday, November 1
Semi-final one, 2.10pm – Ireland v winner of qualifier one
Semi-final two, 7.30pm – PNG v winner of qualifier two
Saturday, November 2
Third-place playoff, 2.10pm
Final, 7.30pm
The Penguin
Starring: Colin Farrell, Cristin Milioti, Rhenzy Feliz
Creator: Lauren LeFranc
Rating: 4/5
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
PROFILE OF HALAN
Started: November 2017
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
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UAE-based players
Goodlands Riders: Jamshaid Butt, Ali Abid, JD Mahesh, Vibhor Shahi, Faizan Asif, Nadeem Rahim
Rose Hill Warriors: Faraz Sheikh, Ashok Kumar, Thabreez Ali, Janaka Chathuranga, Muzammil Afridi, Ameer Hamza
LEADERBOARD
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Results
4pm: Al Bastakiya Listed US$300,000 (Dirt) 1,900m; Winner: Emblem Storm, Oisin Murphy (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
4.35pm: Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 $350,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Wafy, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
5.10pm: Nad Al Sheba Turf Group 3 $350,000 (Turf) 1,200m; Winner: Wildman Jack, Fernando Jara, Doug O’Neill.
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar Group 3 $350,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Salute The Soldier, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
6.20pm: Jebel Hatta Group 1 $400,000 (T) 1,800m; Winner: Barney Roy, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 $600,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Matterhorn, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.
7.30pm: Dubai City Of Gold Group 2 $350,000 (T) 2,410m; Winner: Loxley, Mickael Barzalona, Charlie Appleby.